Estonia Likely to Support U.S. NATO Enlargement Strategy

C O N F I D E N T I A L TALLINN 000333 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/11/13 TAGS: PREL NATO PARM MARR KTIA EN NUC SUBJECT: Estonia Likely to Support U.S. NATO Enlargement Strategy REF: STATE 116100 CLASSIFIED BY: Marc Nordberg, Political/Economic Chief; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) Classified by Charge Karen Decker for Reasons 1.4 B & D. ¶1. (C) Pol Chief delivered reftel points November 13 to MFA Security Policy Director Paul Teesalu. Teesalu said the GOE is still engaged in internal debate on its position towards enlargement for the December ministerial, and thanked the USG for these points which would influence Estonia's thinking. Teesalu claimed the reftel points looked like something he would have written, and believes Estonia will also adopt the USG position towards all aspirants. ¶2. (C) Teesalu only had one reservation about the USG points. The GOE believes that NATO should adopt an open position that there are multiple paths to membership. Estonia feels that it is important to reassure publicly Georgia and Ukraine that MAP is not the only mechanism towards membership. This is vital, especially as NATO expands in the Balkans, to encourage reform in both countries and to show third countries (Russia) that Ukraine and Georgia are potential NATO members. Teesalu argued that NATO will have to discuss shortly which paths to membership exist, not least since this should be spelled out in the strategic concept. ¶3. (C) Teesalu added that Georgia and Ukraine both have modest expectations for the December ministerial. Both countries realize their positions, due to the August 2008 war and political and economic problems in Ukraine, are weaker than they were several years ago. Georgia simply hopes for expressions of support, while Ukraine wants to hear that there are multiple paths to membership. Ukraine is considering forcing a debate on paths to membership in the NATO-Ukraine Commission, but the GOE has advised Ukraine to allow this to remain a matter for internal NATO debate. DECKER