Estonia:Local Elections Outlook

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TALLINN 000311 SIPDIS AMEMBASSY ANKARA PASS TO AMCONSUL ADANA AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO USOFFICE ALMATY AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL LEIPZIG AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/15 TAGS: PGOV EN SUBJECT: Estonia:Local Elections Outlook REF: TALLINN 320 CLASSIFIED BY: Marc Nordberg, Political/Economic Chief; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. On October 18, Estonians and non-citizen legal residents will cast ballots in local elections for 226 town councils. While the debates outside Tallinn remain focused on local and domestic issues ("it's the economy, stupid") , the race in Tallinn is being trumpeted (by the opposition) as an unofficial referendum on the governing coalition. Polling results indicate that the opposition Center Party, with a strong base among pensioners and Estonia's Russian-speaking community, will strengthen its grip on Tallinn's city government, although there are a significant amount of undecided voters. Post does not expect major changes in the major urban centers (Tallinn, Tartu, and Narva),but the results will be an important milestone on the road to parliamentary elections in 2011. One interesting aspect of these elections that we are monitoring is the efficacy and success of e-voting. END SUMMARY. Political Primer: The Parties ¶2. (U) As a quick review, the following are the main political parties and their affiliations: -- Center: Center-left, populist. Estonia's largest party by membership, and second by number of MPs (28 seats),but in the opposition. Center is the only major party actively seeking support from Estonia's Russian-speakers. --Reform: Center-right, pro-business. Currently the largest party in parliament (31 seats),and the party of the PM. -- IRL: Center-right nationalist. Third largest party in parliament (19 seats) and coalition partner with Reform. --Social-Democrats: Center-left. Has ten seats in parliament. Was in a coalition with Reform and IRL until last summer, when it was removed. Although the president cannot belong to any party, President Toomas Ilves came from the Social Democrats. -- Peoples Union: Social-democratic, agrarian. Has six seats in parliament but its popularity has been fading following a corruption scandal with the party leader. -- Greens: Pro-environment, fiscally conservative. Has six seats in parliament. ¶3. (U) A total of 15,322 candidates are running for 3,076 positions nationwide. The vast majority are running on party or other electoral lists. The number of truly independent candidates (not on any particular party list) has doubled from 67 to 159. This may be the lingering impact of Independent European Parliamentary candidate Indrek Tarand's surprising upset in the June 2009 MEP election. Political party vilification in the press combined with the fallout of some recent corruption scandals may have reduced the viability of straight party lists in the eyes of some candidates. However, this is contrasted with the high number of sitting MPs, 88 of 101, running for local council seats. In the past, MPs could hold both a seat in parliament and a seat on a town council. Now MPs cannot hold both jobs, but still run in order to lend the local lists name recognition. MPs running tell us they will stay on in parliament and cede their local seats to others on their party list if they win locally. E-voting Quickly Surpasses Previous Counts ¶4. (U) Estonia's e-voters have also been casting ballots in ever greater numbers. This is the fourth election in which Estonians can cast their ballots online or via cell phone. Estonians can cast electronic votes up to a week before the elections, and can repeatedly change their vote as desired. If an Estonian is unhappy with his e-vote, he or she can cast a paper ballot on election day that trumps any virtual vote (allowing Estonians to actually "vote early, and vote often"). In the first five days of on-line voting more than 158,000 e-votes were cast (representing 14.5% of eligible voters),more than during June's European parliamentary elections. TALLINN 00000311 002 OF 004 The Race in Tallinn ¶5. (U) Polling in early October places Center's support in Tallinn at around 35 percent. This level of support would give Center approximately 49 of the 79 seats in the city council. The nearest contender is the Reform Party (the Prime Minister's party) garnering about 10 percent of voters or approximately 14 seats. Pro Patria and Res Publica Union (IRL) and the Social Democrats are only polling at around 6 percent of the vote, and the Greens and People's Union even less. In this scenario, the Center Party would rule the council outright, and not need any coalition parties. ¶6. (U) The Center Party maintains its overwhelming lock on Russian-speaking voters in Tallinn (approximately 150,000, or almost half of Tallinn's voters),and Center is the only party that has made serious efforts to woo Russian voters. This outreach risks a backlash, however, among Estonian voters, and it has been reported that while 70 percent of Russian speakers said they would vote for Center, only 10 percent of ethnic Estonians in Tallinn said they would do so. ¶7. (U) Edgar Savisaar, Center's leader and current Mayor of Tallinn, has predicted a big win for his party and framed the outcome as a "people's vote of no confidence" in the governing coalition. In truth, a Center Party landslide in Tallinn could have the opposite effect: to sustain the governing coalition of the Reform Party and IRL. Any landslide would come from the support of Russian-speaking voters, many of whom are not Estonian citizens and thus cannot vote in national elections. Because just over half of Estonia's Russian-speakers are not Estonian citizens, Center is likely to do quite a bit better in local elections than it would in any national poll. Likewise, if Center wins an outright majority of seats, it will have little to offer a prospective coalition partner. (NOTE: After a big win in the 2005 city council elections in Tallinn, the Center Party could not interest any of the other major parties in joining a coalition as their weight on the council, 32 of 63 seats, precluded any real power sharing.) ¶8. (U) By law, parties and candidates are barred from political advertising for one month prior to any election. The Center Party has engaged in a number of dubious activities that (barely) skirt this restriction. Center has erected ten tents around Tallinn to assist voters with internet voting, arguing this does not constitute advertising, but is a service to voters. Naturally, confused voters will vote in these tents, with Center Party assistance. Center also held a contest giving a trip to Egypt and free computers for a few lucky survey respondents, hosted free tours and concerts for rally participants who agreed to be bused in from outside of Tallinn, provided free potatoes and firewood as part of the city's assistance program (although we have been told the potatoes and firewood were only rented for display purposes), and sent Savisaar and other key city council members to Moscow in September - to demonstrate Savisaar's concern or Russian speakers. To also appeal to ethnic Estonians, several Center Party members in parliament made a great show of castigating the Foreign Minister and Justice Minister over their involvement in a recent scandal resulting from the lifting of a Schengen visa ban on Russian Duma member Sergei Markov (reftel). ¶9. (U) The large amount of undecided voters in Tallinn is not a new phenomenon in Estonian politics, but there is no pattern to predict how they will break in this election. Many of them may be supporters of some of the smaller parties representing the Russian-speaking community that have emerged recently in Tallinn (septel). Others perhaps are supporters of parties that are polling in very low numbers, such as the Social Democrats or Greens, who are waiting to see what sort of electoral unions and alliances are formed. Outside of Tallinn: Tartu ¶10. (SBU) Estonia's second city, and seat of the major university, has been a Reform Party stronghold for 12 years. Current Prime Minister Andrus Ansip and Minister of Culture Laine Jaanes both served as mayor of Tartu, maintaining very strong popularity ratings throughout their terms. In a recent meeting TALLINN 00000311 003 OF 004 with the ChargC),Incumbent Mayor Urmas Kruuse appeared confident and stated that he believed Reform would win again, if not by previous margins of victory. There is no Russian-speaking dimension to this election. Russian speakers in Tartu are few in number and generally well-assimilated. Russian Support in Narva ¶11. (SBU) Mikhail Stalnuhin, Chairman of the Narva City Council, recently told Pol/Econ Chief that his Center Party will sweep the local elections. Center received 59 percent of the vote in Narva in 2005, and Stalnuhin predicts Center will do better this year. Stalnuhin could well be right, 97 percent of Narva's population is Russian-speaking - Center's natural constituency, and PM Ansip's 2007 decision to relocate the Bronze Soldier war memorial in Tallinn lingers in the minds of Russian-speaking voters, who saw the move as anti-Russian. ¶12. (C) Stalnuhin also predicted elections in Narva would be dirty. He complained that local police had twice harassed local volunteers for a Center Party candidate. Sergei Stepanov, editor of the local Russian-language newspaper Narvskaya Gazeta (and no friend to Stalnuhin),however, told us that Stalnuhin is also involved in dirty politics, and is receiving support from sources in Russia. Stepanov claimed that since September 1, Russian television stations in St. Petersburg (which are widely watched in Narva) have broadcast a minimum of three times a week positive stories about Narva and Stalnuhin. (COMMENT: This is in stark contrast to the usual Russian media stories about Estonia, which are uniformly negative. END COMMENT.) Stepanov also claimed the Russian Consulate in Narva provides the Center Party with money and, more importantly, allows the Center Party to refer names to the consulate for expeditious passport issuance (Stepanov said the consulate normally takes three months to issue a Russian passport, but will do it within a week for names referred by Center). Stepanov claimed Stalnuhin uses city funds directly for election purposes, but also solicits "donations" from firms that want city contracts, to support his party in elections. (COMMENT: We have heard similar allegations about Savisaar in Tallinn. END COMMENT.) Stepanov added that his newspaper has come under pressure because he did not endorse the Center Party, and that his advertisers have been told they will lose government contracts unless they stop advertising in Narvskaya Gazeta. For his part, Stalnuhin accused Narvskaya Gazeta of playing dirty after it published an editorial supporting the Social Democrats. Challenge in Parnu ¶13. (U) The nature of the governing coalition in Parnu, led by the Center Party with Reform and an electoral union as junior partners, makes it a little more difficult to predict who will fare the best in this election. Incumbent Mayor Mart Viisitamm is quite popular and could be returned to office, but in what manner of coalition is quite difficult to predict. According to local contacts, Viisitamm also faces this year an independent list led by the popular Governor of Parnu County. Political parties are not well established in the Parnu area, so many voters remain undecided until the end, and often vote for someone they know (which is common in Estonia, where everybody knows everybody else). Therefore this independent list has a real chance of unseating the incumbent. Unexpected Heat in Rakvere ¶14. (U) An unexpectedly hot race is in Rakvere, the seat of West Viru County. This normally quiet town of almost 17,000 has a popular incumbent mayor (and a good Embassy contact). Center Party politicos, however, have imported well- known media personality/entertainer Peeter Vosa from Tallinn to run as a local candidate. Post anticipates that incumbent Mayor Andres Jaadla of the Reform Party will fend off this challenge as he remains fairly popular and is recognized as a capable local politician who has done much to promote development in the city. No Great Impact on Foreign Affairs or our bilateral relationship ¶15. (U) COMMENT. At the end of the day, this is an exercise in democracy that will have very little effect on our bilateral relationship with Estonia. There are no foreign policy TALLINN 00000311 004 OF 004 considerations at play; it's all about jobs and pensions, and positioning for the 2011 parliamentary elections - which will have a foreign policy emphasis. Likewise the results of this election will not translate directly to the next parliamentary elections. Non-citizen residents are allowed to vote in local, but not national, elections. Therefore Center will most likely fare far better in these local elections, with an additional 200,000 non-citizen Russian-speakers eligible to vote, than they would in parliamentary elections. DECKER