NATO SYG VISIT TO ESTONIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TALLINN 000309 SIPDIS AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/10/14 TAGS: PREL PINS MARR NATO EN SUBJECT: NATO SYG VISIT TO ESTONIA CLASSIFIED BY: Marc Nordberg, Political/Economic Chief; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) Classified by Charge Karen Decker for Reasons 1.4 B & D. ¶1. (U) SUMMARY. On October 13, poloff met with Kristel Engman, NATO desk officer in the MFA's Security Policy Division to receive a readout of NATO Secretary General Rasmussen's October 8th visit to Tallinn. The SYG met with President Toomas Hendrik Ilves, Prime Minister Andrus Ansip, Foreign Minister Urmas Paet, Defense Minister Jaak Aaviksoo and Commander of the Estonian Defense Forces Lt. Gen. Ants Laaneots. In his meetings the SYG emphasized NATO's commitment to collective defense, lauded Estonia's outstanding contributions to the mission in Afghanistan, and stressed his belief that Russia was no longer a threat to NATO. His Estonian interlocutors expressed their desire to see the Strategic Concept place renewed emphasis on collective defense, and they also encouraged NATO to remain committed to enlargement. The Estonians stated that they wanted to focus the April 2010 NATO ministerial in Tallinn on the Strategic Concept, and by implication collective security. Below are specific comments about the primary topics addressed in each meeting as interpreted by Rasmussen's Estonian interlocutors. END SUMMARY ¶2. (U) STRATEGIC CONCEPT. The SYG assured the Estonians that the process would be transparent and that the NAC will be engaged. The end result should be a modern statement focusing on the core mission of collective defense while also incorporating new elements such as cyber defense and energy security. While the Estonians concurred with the incorporation of the new elements, they stressed that Article 5 and collective defense should remain at the core of the Strategic Concept. The Estonians told Rasmussen that they wanted to see the Strategic Concept as the main issue at the April ministerial in Tallinn. ¶3. (C) CONTINGENCY PLANNING. The Estonians raised contingency planning in every meeting, stressing that this was "the most important issue" for Estonia. Engman reported that GOE officials were "quite surprised" when Rasmussen responded that the value of contingency planning was over-estimated. The SYG did note the need for more updated planning covering all allies, and that these plans should be addressed in the framework of the new Strategic Concept. The Estonians concurred with the SYG when he cautioned that all discussions of contingency planning should take place within the Alliance (and not in public). FM Paet lamented that the NATO Contingency Operations Plan is "already leading its own life in the media" in Estonia, but he also affirmed the need to keep these discussions private. Engman added that the Estonians thought that the SYG seemed a bit surprised at the emphasis they placed on contingency planning. ¶4. (U) AFGHANISTAN. Rasmussen stressed that NATO would stay in Afghanistan as long as needed but more involvement by Afghans would be critical. He emphasized the importance of the training mission (for Afghan army/police),and stated that he is generally in agreement with the McChrystal Report. The SYG also noted that a broader approach was needed in Afghanistan, to include an increasing role by/for civilians. Local media took note of statements by President Ilves concurring with the need to increase the attention given to civilian projects in Afghanistan in order to strengthen the state and improve the daily lives of as many Afghans as possible. However, Ilves cautioned that sustainability should play a greater role in planning so as not to unduly increase Afghanistan's dependence on external aid. Engman added that FM Paet raised the issue of urging Afghanistan to adopt a mix of conscription-contract forces in order to meet their growing needs. ¶5. (C) NATO-RUSSIAN RELATIONS. Not surprisingly, NATO-Russia relations was also addressed in every session. The Estonians expressed their concerns about the recent Zapad and Ladoga exercises conducted near the Baltic States by Russia and its allies, calling these exercises "offensive in nature." The SYG understood the Baltics' concerns and agreed NATO should continue to monitor these exercises, but he added a comment that he did not see such exercises as a threat. The SYG reiterated that NATO would stick to its principles, but would also cooperate with Russia in areas of common interest such as stabilization in Afghanistan, counter terrorism and piracy. The SYG also informed the Estonians of his upcoming visit to Moscow in December. The Estonians took special notice of the SYG's statement in a working lunch with PM Ansip and FM Paet that reducing tensions between NATO members and Russia could improve NATO-Russian relations. The Estonians affirmed their interest in establishing normal relations with Russia but added that Russia should demonstrate interest as well. Near the end of the read out, the NATO desk officer added that the Estonians considered the SYG to "still" be overly optimistic about NATO-Russian relations. TALLINN 00000309 002 OF 002 ¶6. (U) NATO ENLARGEMENT. The SYG reaffirmed NATO's support for the open door policy, but cautioned that each new member would need to fulfill the membership criteria. He noted that Montenegro might be ready to achieve MAP in December at the Foreign Ministers' meeting in Brussels,, but he was not optimistic about Bosnia. He added that MAP was not a guarantee for membership, and in the case of Ukraine and Georgia, different avenues were possible. ¶7. (U) NATO VISIBILITY AND TRAINING. The SYG assured the Estonians that he attached great importance to NATO visibility and presence in the Baltics, and he saw his visit as one example. The SYG also stated that NATO training plans depended on proposals made by Allies. While the Estonians responded positively to this statement, they did not present any proposals during the visit. ¶8. (C) Comment: Estonia's experience as a state occupied by the Soviet Union is the bedrock of its beliefs in the importance of NATO and its reliance on NATO's protection. They are daily aware they live in the shadow of a resurgent Russia. When Moscow makes statements, such as claiming it will use military force to defend Russians citizens abroad, Estonia takes notice (30 percent of the Estonian population is ethnically Russian, and a sizeable number of residents hold Russian passports). Since last year's war in Georgia, Estonian opinion makers now believe a Russian invasion of the Baltics is a possibility - even if not imminent. Many Estonians see Russia's recent Zapad and Ladoga exercises as a rehearsal for a military push to cut the Baltic States off from the rest of NATO. With these fears, we can expect Estonia to continue to raise the need for NATO contingency planning as a priority item for Alliance discussion. As a practical measure, Estonia wants NATO (and the U.S.) to consider additional exercises in the Baltics as a visible commitment to the region. Estonia currently has the highest deployment rate in NATO, but if the Estonians feel their future at home is insecure, pressure will mount to reduce their overseas deployments and focus their troops, training and procurement on territorial defense. DECKER