Estonians Calm on Missile Defense Announcement

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/09/18
TAGS: MARR PREL EN
SUBJECT: Estonians Calm on Missile Defense Announcement

REF: STATE 96550

CLASSIFIED BY: Marc Nordberg, Political/Economic Chief; REASON:
1.4(B),(D)


1. (SBU) Pol Chief delivered reftel points to Paul Teesalu,
Director of the MFA's Security Policy Division, on September 17.
Teesalu said he had been expecting such an announcement, and that
he understood the reasoning for changing U.S. missile defense
plans. He added that Estonia looks forward to working on future
missile defense planning through NATO, and will be interested to
learn where the U.S. places elements of the phased system.




2. (C) Other reactions in Estonia were equally muted. In a
discussion September 18 with Pol Chief, Chairman of Parliament's
Foreign Affairs Committee Sven Mikser expressed the strongest
(although still low key) opinions. Mikser also said he understands
USG reasoning, but fears many in Estonia will view this
announcement as a victory for Russia. By opposing deploying
missile defense elements in Poland and the Czech Republic, Mikser
explained Russia stood to win regardless of outcome - Russia could
demand concessions if the bases were built, or claim victory if
they were not.




3. (C) In recent days Marko Mihkelson, Chairman of Parliament's
European Union Affairs Committee, and Toomas Kukk, Foreign Policy
Advisor to the Prime Minister, separately told Pol Chief that any
backing away from deploying missile defense in Poland and the Czech
Republic would be seen as a sign the U.S. is less engaged in
Central and Eastern Europe. Mihkelson publicly said September 18
that the U.S. is less focused on the region now than it was five
years ago, but that the missile defense decision does not pose any
threat for Estonian security. Kukk, however, on September 18 told
Pol Chief that there was no such concern in the PM's office.




4. (SBU) Comment: This missile defense announcement will likely
have some slight negative resonance in Estonia. Estonians often
view relations with Russia in zero-sum terms - what is good for
Russia must be bad for the West. Therefore many are a little
uncomfortable that Russia may have "won" this round. Estonians are
also very sensitive to any signs that the U.S., seen as their main
guarantor of stability, is paying less attention to the region. In
this case, we benefitted from good timing. The day of the missile
defense announcement Foreign Minister Paet was in Washington
meeting Secretary Clinton and NSA Jones. Two days earlier U.S.
F-15s visited Estonia for joint training. These concrete signs of
bilateral engagement shared the media space with the missile
defense news, reassuring many that the USG remains engaged with
Estonia.
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