Scenesetter for A/S Gordon's Visit to Estonia

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 TALLINN 000235 SIPDIS FOR EUR A/S PHILIP GORDON AMEMBASSY ANKARA PASS TO AMCONSUL ADANA AMEMBASSY ASTANA PASS TO USOFFICE ALMATY AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL DUSSELDORF AMEMBASSY BERLIN PASS TO AMCONSUL LEIPZIG AMEMBASSY BELGRADE PASS TO AMEMBASSY PODGORICA AMEMBASSY HELSINKI PASS TO AMCONSUL ST PETERSBURG AMEMBASSY ATHENS PASS TO AMCONSUL THESSALONIKI AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL VLADIVOSTOK AMEMBASSY MOSCOW PASS TO AMCONSUL YEKATERINBURG E.O. 12958: DECL: 2019/08/05 TAGS: PREL PGOV EN SUBJECT: Scenesetter for A/S Gordon's Visit to Estonia CLASSIFIED BY: Karen Decker, CDA; REASON: 1.4(B),(D) Classified by: CDA Karen Decker, reasons 1.4(b/d). ¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Thank you for coming to Tallinn. Estonians and their government are strongly pro-American, joining us in Afghanistan and other missions abroad from a sense of common values, but also to buttress Estonian security. Estonians very much look to NATO (and the U.S. in particular) to keep them free from what they perceive as a very real threat from Russia. Statements reaffirming NATObs Article V will be welcome, particularly around this first anniversary of the war in Georgia. GOE officials are likely to distance themselves from the recent bOpen Letterb from Central and Eastern European figures which sought to caution the USG about Russian intentions. Foreign Minister Paet will note that the Estonian signatory (while a former Prime Minister) is not in, and does not speak for, the Estonian government. The economy, of course, will also be on everyonebs mind. After years of strong growth, the economy is contracting sharply this year and unemployment is approaching 20 percent. However, the GOE will stress that Estonia is managing its economy, and will argue against lumping the Baltic States together as a single entity in any analysis. In fact, Estonia has lent Latvia b,,100 million to help bolster the Latvian economy. ¶2. (SBU) During your first official visit to Tallinn, you will have dinner with FM Paet and his top advisors, and participate in a joint press conference with Paet. We suggest a breakfast meeting with former Prime Minister Mart Laar (the signatory of the Open Letter). We also hope to have time for a quick tour of the Estonian Cyber Defense Center. Before departing, we strongly recommend a sit-down interview with Estonian and Russian-language journalists. In your meetings in Tallinn, it would be useful to: -- Publicly express appreciation for Estoniabs decision to deploy a mechanized company to Afghanistan this summer for election security (tripling PM Ansipbs NATO summit pledge of a platoon). This deployment is in addition to the company already in Afghanistan, giving Estonia one of the highest deployment percentages of any NATO member. -- Recognize Estonian contributions to civil society development, particularly in Afghanistan and Georgia. -- Acknowledge the importance of collective defense to Estonia and reiterate U.S. commitment to this principle and to NATObs Article ¶V. Welcome Estoniabs interest in the development of the new Strategic Concept for NATO. --Praise Estonian leadership on cyber security and welcome certification of the Estonian Cyber Center as a NATO Center of Excellence. END SUMMARY. State of the Nation: Minority Coalition, Sinking Economy -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In May of this year, the ruling coalition fell apart after TALLINN 00000235 002 OF 005 disputes over the budget and unemployment compensation, resulting in the current minority government. The center-right coalition holds 50 of 101 seats in parliament, but appears relatively stable. The governmentbs primary objectives include a proactive, pro-western foreign policy and a liberal, pro-business economic agenda. These policies will be tested in upcoming local elections (in October). ¶4. (SBU) After stellar GDP growth for much of this decade, averaging seven percent annually, Estoniabs export-led economy has taken a sharp hit. GDP fell 15 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, and is expected to drop further before bottoming out in ¶2010. Unemployment rose to 17 percent in June, and could reach 20 percent by the end of the year. Despite these figures, Estonia is still faring better than the other Baltics (and you can expect your interlocutors to point this out). Unlike Latvia, for instance, Estonia ran annual budget surpluses during the growth years and resisted raising social transfer payments. Estoniabs better fiscal situation allowed the GOE to lend Latvia b,,100 million as part of the EU bailout. ¶5. (SBU) The GOEbs main policy goal is to join the Euro Zone in ¶2011. Estoniabs currency, the kroon, has been pegged to the Euro since inception in 1992. The Maastricht Criteria also stipulate that Estonia not exceed a three percent budget deficit. Estonia, therefore, lacks fiscal and monetary means of dealing with the economic crisis. The GOE has already this year cut an equivalent of 7.1 percent of GDP from its FY09 budget, and likely will have to cut more. Among other measures, all government employees have taken an eight percent salary cut. Many private employers have also cut salaries, seeking to limit lay-offs. So far such austerity measures have not resulted in general dissatisfaction and the populace remains largely supportive of adopting the Euro. The 800-pound Bear in the Room -------------- ¶6. (C) Still scarred by more than 50 years of Soviet occupation, in which up to 20 percent of the Estonian population was killed or forcibly deported, Estonians remain fixated on bthe Russian threat.b Russiabs 2008 war with Georgia, and revanchist Russian statements, only reaffirms these fears. Estonians are happy to be in NATO, but many believe only the U.S. can keep them free. While the GOE stands by us internationally through a genuine set of shared values, GOE leaders also admit to working with the USG to contribute to Estoniabs defense. In all meetings you should reaffirm our commitment to NATObs Article V. While there is little high-level contact between the GOE and GOR, our contacts tell us relations are often very good at the working level, particularly between the border guards. ¶7. (SBU) Approximately 30 percent of Estoniabs population is Russian-speaking. Of this group, 25 percent are Russian citizens and 27 percent remain stateless (the rest are Estonian citizens). The GOE has programs to integrate the Russian population and to teach Estonian in all schools. Progress is slow, and the north-east of the country, as well as large parts of Tallinn, remain Russian-speaking. Relations between ethnic Estonians and Russian speakers are generally good, but boiled over in spring 2007 when the GOE relocated a Soviet-era (bBronze Soldierb) statue. Ethnic Estonians saw the statue as a reminder of Soviet occupation, but ethnic Russians saw the relocation as an insult to Soviet troops who died bliberatingb Estonia. These riots have not been repeated. Estonians and Russian speakers do not, however, mix freely. Russian speakers are not politically active and as Estonian TALLINN 00000235 003 OF 005 language skills are required for government jobs, feelings of disenfranchisement can be strong in Russian-speaking areas. Cyber Security: Estonia Leads the Way -------------- ¶8. (C) Concurrent with the Bronze Soldier riots in 2007 were massive Denial of Service attacks against Estoniabs internet architecture. In response, Estonia stepped up development of its Cyber Defense Center, which NATO accredited as a Center of Excellence in 2008. In November 2007 the U.S. became the first country to send a representative to the Center. The USG currently has one naval civilian at the center. Secretary of Defense Gates visited the center in November 2008 and recommended the U.S. become a "Sponsoring Nation." DoD is currently reviewing this sponsorship. The Center has completed some interesting strategic analyses on such topics as the status of cyber attacks under international law and cyber defense under Article V. Strong Contributor to International Peace and Security -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) Estonia punches well above its weight in promoting international security. The GOE sees this as a way of gaining valuable experience from (and scoring points with) the United States, but its activism also stems from a sense of responsibility after other nations helped Estonia regain its freedom from the USSR. Estonia has 13.5 percent of its land forces deployed abroad (all of which operate without any caveats),perhaps the highest level in NATO. Estonia maintains 140 troops in the province of Helmand in southern Afghanistan, and in July sent an additional 134 to provide six months of election security. This second company will work with U.S. Marines in southern Afghanistan. Estonia had a platoon embedded with U.S. counter-insurgency forces in Iraq from 2003-2009, but had to remove them after failing to negotiate a new SOFA with Iraq. Three officers remain with NTM-I. Estonia also has a platoon in Kosovo, and officers in Bosnia and Lebanon. There have been four KIA in Afghanistan (most recently, one soldier killed in action in June) and two in Iraq. ¶10. (SBU) The GOE matches this military contribution with civilian assistance. The economic crisis has forced Estonia to cut its foreign assistance from EEK 60 million [USD 5.5 million] in 2008 to EEK 40 million [USD 3.7 million] this year. Estonia focuses its assistance on four countries, Afghanistan, Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, but has also trained Iraqi diplomats, and provided relief to Pakistani refugees, among other projects. ¶11. (C) NOTE: In addition to its military and civilian contributions to security beyond its borders, the GOE is currently debating whether it could accept any detainees from GTMO for resettlement in Estonia. FM Paet has taken the lead on this issue, and has requested the USG arrange a fact-finding trip for Estonian officials to Guantanamo (to occur this month). END NOTE. NATO/Article V: Back in Area or out of Business TALLINN 00000235 004 OF 005 -------------- -- ¶12. (C) Estoniabs leaders have called for NATO to return to collective defense, particularly since the war in Georgia. Estonians are quite concerned that NATO lacks detailed defense planning for the Baltics. They were pleased by Baltic Air Policing (NATO members provide four fighters on a rotating basis, flying out of Lithuania),but are trying to extend the mission past its expiration in 2011 (and they may lay down a marker with you to that effect). The keen interest in Article V is one of the reasons Estonia has prioritized the development of a new Strategic Concept (SC) for NATO. The GOE sees the Latvian member of the new SC experts group as a Baltic representative and will follow SC developments closely. Your interlocutors and the media are likely to seek assurances that Estonia will not be left to its own defenses should Russia take aggressive military action against them. Furthermore, the GOE remains a staunch advocate for EU and NATO enlargement, including MAP for Georgia and Ukraine. The bOpen Letterb -------------- ¶13. (C) Former PM and current MP Mart Laar was among 20 former Central and Eastern European leaders who signed an open letter to President Obama in July. The letter calls for the U.S. and Central Europe to maintain close ties, for the U.S. to remain a bEuropean power,b for a strengthening of collective defense under NATO in the face of growing Russian intransigence, among other requests. While the Pro Patria/Res Publica party (Laarbs party) is a member of the coalition government, Laar himself is not a member of the government, and GOE leaders will likely tell you this letter was a mistake. However, the same GOE leaders likely agree with the message and will want to hear that the U.S. will not forget about Central and Eastern Europe. We are hoping to arrange breakfast for you with Laar. It will give you a chance to set the record straight with an influential MP, and, among other things, his past role as an advisor to Georgian President Saakashvili make Laar worth talking to. Media in Estonia -------------- ¶14. (U) The Estonian media environment is considered free, objective and critical. Reliance on electronic media is increasing. This means not only a rapid increase in Internet usage, but also a marked increase in time spent watching TV. One of the greatest media-related challenges facing Estonia today (and one of our to MSP goals) is to increase communication with the Russian-speaking population in Estonia. Lacking a Russian-language national television station, Estoniabs Russian speakers rely on television news from Russia b" much of which contains a heavy pro-Kremlin bias. During last yearbs war in Georgia, the influence of Russian television was clear b" polls showed a drastic difference between ethnic Estonian and Russian-speaking perspective on the source of the conflict. ¶15. (U) You will have a joint press conference at the MFA and a separate interview. You will find the media to be friendly, but direct. They do not have a secret agenda, nor do they aim to TALLINN 00000235 005 OF 005 embarrass the USG. They do, however, want to ask tough questions -- about Russia, most likely-- and will want straight answers. ¶16. (U) Again, welcome to Estonia. I look forward to seeing you next week. DECKER