DPP CHAIR TSAI HOLDING STEADY BUT HURDLES REMAIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000914

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2019
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIR TSAI HOLDING STEADY BUT HURDLES REMAIN

REF: A. REF A TAIPEI 754

B. REF B TAIPEI 529

C. REF C TAIPEI 896

D. TAIPEI 903

Classified By: Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary. DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen appears to have a
firm handle on party politics this summer, partly due to
initiatives on a referendum on President Ma's proposed
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with China and on
judicial fairness. Tackling these projects that appeal to
broad segments of the DPP has somewhat silenced Tsai's
critics. Nonetheless, the party's underlying problems,
particularly disunity, will continue to pose a challenge for
Tsai. End summary.

Summer Breaks
--------------


2. (C) After months of facing steady criticism and
acknowledging heavy pressures, Democratic Progressive Party
(DPP) Chair Tsai Ing-wen launched two seemingly well-received
initiatives this summer that have helped steadied the party's
often turbulent waters for now and brought Tsai some relief.
The DPP-led efforts to push for a referendum on President
Ma's proposed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)
with China and to urge fairness in Taiwan's judicial system,
particularly in the corruption trial involving former
President Chen Shui-bian (see ref A),are helping to bring a
degree of unity to the party, maintained DPP International
Affairs Director Bikhim Hsiao and Taipei City Councilor and
DPP Central Executive Committee Member Wu Szu-yao to POLOFF
in recent meetings.


3. (C) The ECFA and judicial fairness campaigns are
resonating with broad segments of the DPP and show that Tsai
is capable of taking action. Green supporters had been
critcizing Tsai for being "weak" (see ref B),and radical
party members had blasted her for not doing enough to defend
Chen. While party members may disagree on whether Chen
committed crimes, there is general consensus that he deserves
a fair trial, explained Hsiao.


4. (C) Tsai also enjoyed a break, when Taiwan's Cabinet
indirectly helped resolve the party's embarrassing candidate
dilemma for Green stronghold Tainan County. The Cabinet
decided on June 30 to approve the merger of Tainan City and
County into a special munipality, effectively eliminating
those races from this year's December 5 local magistrate
elections. (Notes: The DPP had nominated legislator Lee
Chun-yee for Tainan County magistrate but former Presidential
Office Secretary General Mark Chen refused to pull out of the
race and continued campaign efforts. The magistrate of the
new Tainan special municipality will be elected at the end of
2010.) The decision to merge Tainan and essentially postpone
an election until next year was "like a gift from heaven,"
said Wu Szu-yao.


5. (C) The DPP's July 27 decision to expel two prominent
members for ignoring a party ban on their travel plans to
China (see ref C) also helped bolster Tsai's image and made
her look strong and tough. The party needed to uphold its
regulations on China travel, explained Wu. (Note: The DPP
issued new rules in June, requiring all ranking party and
government officials at the city and county councilor level
and above to report non-personal travel plans to China to
party headquarters.)

Challenges Await
--------------


6. (C) The DPP Chair appears to be doing better lately
because of the campaigns not because of her capability,
claimed Wu. The division within the DPP remains a problem,
Hsiao and DPP Central Standing Committee Member Luo Wen-jia
told POLOFF during separate meetings. Factions remain
pervasive, and Luo said Tsai missed out on a prime
opportunity to reform the party after the DPP experienced

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heavy defeats in the 2008 legislative and presidential
elections.


7. (C) Tsai is trying to work with radicals within the DPP
and has won the support of some but not all, Hsiao noted as
she explained that Tsai may soon need to decide whether to
continue to try to win them over or move forward with her
agenda. Reforming the party, for example, has long been one
of Tsai's priorities but party disunity, Ma's cross-Strait
policy, Chen's corruption cases, and other issues have kept
Tsai from making much progress on that front. Reform still
remains a priority but is an "ongoing process," said Hsiao.


8. (C) The DPP Chair also may need to take more initiative
and give the party a firm direction. DPP members currently
disagree on the party's primary focus, with some arguing it
should be elections and others maintaining the need to
protect core values such as sovereignty, explained Hsiao.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) The subsided pressure on and criticism of Tsai has
indeed been reflected in our meetings with her and other DPP
contacts. Tsai had regularly expressed the pressure on her
in previous meetings with the former AIT Director but such
comments were noticeably absent in her July 28 meeting with
the AIT Acting Director (see ref D). Similarly, DPP and
pro-Green contacts have not uttered the word "pressure" when
discussing Tsai in recent meetings, unlike in past
conversations. Nonetheless, the campaigns and developments
this summer may have only temporarily reduced the pressure on
Tsai and the criticism. While they may have bolstered Tsai
because they appealed to broad segments of the party, the
initiatives and developments did little to narrow the divide
within the DPP.


10. (C) At the same time, however, the DPP's performance in
the upcoming year-end elections will also be viewed as a test
of Tsai's strategic thinking and leadership ability. While
no longer as significant, a disastrous showing in the
elections will likely generate a call for change. The DPP
currently holds just 3 of the 17 seats up for grabs in the
elections.
WANG