DPP CHAIR TSAI ON KMT CHAIRMAN-ELECT MA, CHINA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000903

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2019
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIR TSAI ON KMT CHAIRMAN-ELECT MA, CHINA
POLICY, CHEN SHUI-BIAN

REF: TAIPEI 896

Classified By: Acting Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary. DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen dismissed the idea
of having a dialogue with President Ma Ying-jeou once he
assumes the KMT chairmanship. Ma's overtures to meet with
her were not genuine, Tsai told the Acting Director in a July
28 meeting. Although concerned about Ma's perceived
pro-unification leanings, Tsai claimed that the DPP would not
block unification if the general Taiwan population expressed
this desire in a referendum. This stance, however, likely
would not resonate with segments within the DPP that have
traditionally touted Taiwan independence. End summary.

Dialogue With Ma Not In The Cards
--------------


2. (C) Even though President Ma Ying-jeou will become her
direct counterpart when he assumes the KMT chairmanship on
September 12, opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
Chair Tsai Ing-wen dismissed the idea of a dialogue with Ma
in a July 28 meeting with the Acting Director. She explained
that to Ma it would just be a "show" and an opportunity to
play things up. Tsai did not see the benefit of engaging Ma
when he does not take into account the views of Taiwan's
opposition.


3. (C) Tsai said Ma was "too careful" in his response to
Chinese President Hu Jintao's letter congratulating him on
his election as KMT Chairman and in handling of cross-Strait
relations overall. Ma failed to use any title in his
response to Hu (septel). He did not refer to himself as
"chairman-elect" probably because had he used that title and
not "President" the Taiwan populace may have criticized him
widely, Tsai speculated.


4. (C) Ma's efforts to deepen economic ties to China does
have a positive effect on Taiwan in the short-term, for
example, the increased PRC investment boosts the Taiwan stock
market, but Tsai cautioned Ma is being "short-sighted" and
worries that Ma is not resilient enough when facing PRC
counterparts. Not only does Ma refrain from calling himself
"President" but he also has been decidedly silent on issues
to which he was once sympathetic. Tsai noted Ma avoided
commenting on recent unrest in Xinjiang and Tibet and no
longer is publicly supportive of the Falungong.


5. (C) Tsai opined that the PRC is pressuring Ma to add
political elements to the cross-Strait agenda. While she
believed Ma will not pursue a political agenda before 2012
(referring to Ma's presumed bid for a second presidential
term) as it would be "political suicide," Tsai said Ma was
becoming more and more like former President Chen Shui-bian.
She explained that if people thought Chen moved "too fast"
toward independence, then Ma is moving too fast in the
opposite direction. Ma would not object to unification,
maintained Tsai, claiming that Ma, "deep in his heart,"
believes he is Chinese and that Taiwan and China are a
divided country that should one day be unified. Moreover,
according to DPP polls, the support for unification within
the KMT is higher than the support for independence within
the DPP.

DPP on Independence, Ma's China Policy...
--------------


6. (C) The DPP still prefers independence but also believes
in democracy and democratic mechanisms, maintained Tsai. In
her mind, it is up to the general populace to decide Taiwan's
path. If a referendum reveals that Taiwan people prefer
unification with China, then the DPP would not block this,
said Tsai.


7. (C) For now, Taiwan's relationship with China contains
too many uncertainties and efforts should be made to create a
stable, predictable environment. DPP supporters have
expressed concern about PRC investment in Taiwan's

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infrastructure, media, high technology sectors, for example.
The Ma administration does not appear to understand these
concerns and is running the risk of making Taiwan too
economically dependent on China. Tsai maintained that the DPP
is not opposed to Taiwan having ties to China but wants to
keep Taiwan's options open and let its people decide. She
expressed concern the Ma administration policies are reducing
the option for independence. She likened Taiwan to a car
being driven on a bumpy road. While the recommended speed
may be about 40 kilometers/hour, the KMT is going 100 or 120
km/hr. The DPP is trying to apply the brakes, not to stop
the car but simply to slow it down.

...And Party Rules on Members' China Trips
--------------


8. (C) Just as the DPP is cautious on Ma's efforts to deepen
Taiwan's ties with China, the party also is taking
precautions when it comes to its members' interest in
traveling to the PRC. Tsai explained that the party does not
have an overall ban on travel to China but needed to review
trip purposes, referring to new rules stipulating that senior
members submit non-personal PRC travel plans to DPP
headquarters (see ref A). Part of the criteria involves
whether a trip helps a member to do his or her job. Tsai
explained that DPP supporters did not oppose Kaohsiung Mayor
Chen Chu's trip to China in May because she went to promote
the World Games. On the other hand, there was "full
consensus" within the party to expel former legislator Hsu
Jung-shu and former Council of Agriculture head Fan
Chen-tzung for ignoring a party ban and attending the KMT-CCP
Fifth Cross-Strait Economic, Trade and Cultural Forum in
China. Their trip "served no purpose at all."

Chen Shui-bian Deserves Judicial Fairness
--------------


9. (C) President Ma could try to ensure that former
President Chen Shui-bian is treated fairly by Taiwan's
judicial system but does not, claimed Tsai. She acknowledged
that Chen may have violated certain laws but still deserves a
fair trial. Tsai alleged that individuals close to Ma are
quietly influencing the judges and prosecutors and Ma could
direct them to stop doing so. Chen will definitely be found
guilty at the end of the first trial and will face "heavy"
criminal punishment, maintained Tsai. (Note: The Judge is
slated to announce verdicts in the corruption cases involving
Chen and his family on September 11, 2009.)

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Tsai was relaxed and seemed more comfortable in her
position as chair than in previous meetings. Asked about her
future plans, Tsai maintained she was focused on completing
her first term as DPP chair, which ends in May 2010.
Although she cracked that her job was like "mandatory
military service," Tsai said she would decide her future
(whether to seek a second term) after the December 5 local
elections. Tsai's somewhat more open comments and
perspective on China are a sharp contrast to previous DPP
chairs, who rose up within the party ranks, and reflect her
diverse background as former Mainland Affairs Council
Chairwoman, professor, just to name some of her previous
posts. Her comments about DPP not blocking unification if a
referendum indicated that the general Taiwan population
wanted it are her own personal views as the radical segments
of the DPP surely would disagree and continue their fight for
independence.
WANG