SENIOR KMT OFFICIALS ON BILATERAL TIES, DOMESTIC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000637 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON PINR HK CH TW SUBJECT: SENIOR KMT OFFICIALS ON BILATERAL TIES, DOMESTIC POLITICS, CROSS-STRAIT AND TAIWAN-HONG KONG RELATIONS Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In separate meetings with the Director on May 26, Taoyuan County Magistrate Eric Chu and Taichung Mayor Jason Hu said PRC Taiwan Affairs Office Director Wang Yi had made a special effort to give them a good impression at the recent Fujian Cross-Strait Forum. Also, Wang had been quite positive about negotiating a cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA). Mayor Hu characterized his mid-April visit to Hong Kong as a breakthrough, leading to an improvement in visa status for Taiwan visitors and the establishment of a Taiwan-Hong Kong Cities Forum. Both KMT insiders expected President Ma Ying-jeou to become KMT chairman, succeeding Wu Poh-hsiung, when the position comes open in September. Although Ma is convinced he can do well as chairman, there could be some internal strife in the party after Wu departs. In the end, however, it is Ma's show, Hu stressed. Noting the plan to postpone the Taichung election until 2010 (when the city and county are merged),Hu said he may take a year off but hopes to run for mayor of the new, enlarged Taichung City next year. Hu also had positive comments about DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen. End Summary. ¶2. (C) In separate meetings on May 26, the Director discussed domestic politics and cross-Strait developments, and bilateral relations with Taichung Mayor Jason Hu and Taoyuan County Magistrate Eric Chu, who is also a KMT vice chairman. Jason Hu, a former Foreign Minister and TECRO representative to Washington, expressed agreement with the Director's observations about the improvement of U.S.-Taiwan relations under the Ma administration. According to Hu, the U.S.-Taiwan relationship is now stable and trustworthy, without fear of "surprises." He observed that public perceptions about the security environment have improved and he believed the U.S. and Taiwan could do more to strengthen economic cooperation. Cross-Strait Developments -------------- ¶3. (C) Hu said Beijing had specifically asked KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung to send Eric Chu to the mid-May Fujian Cross-Strait Forum and the Chinese had also asked Honorary Chairman Lien Chan to persuade Hu to participate. According to Hu, it seemed clear that Beijing wanted to use the event to get to know the next generation of KMT leaders. PRC Taiwan Affairs Office Director Wang Yi was very polite and insisted that Hu as well as Chu deliver remarks at the forum. ¶4. (C) Eric Chu noted the Fujian forum had been a huge affair with thousands of participants, and the events focused on exploring ways to expand economic ties between Taiwan and Fujian. In addition to an uneventful meeting with PRC Politburo Standing Committee member Jia Qinglin, there had been two small breakfast meetings with Wang Yi. Wang Yi, who was well aware of Chu's close personal connection to Ma Ying-jeou, had made an effort to give a good impression and he had been very positive about working out an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with Taiwan this year. (Note: During his meeting with former Foreign Minister Fred Chien at the Bo'ao Forum in April, Wang Yi had been critical of Ma for being too cautious. Also, Hu noted that Lien Chan had told him PRC Politburo Standing Committee member Jia Qinglin had mentioned the objectionable term "unification" in front of Chien at the Bo'ao Forum.) ¶5. (C) Chu said the fourth round of Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) - Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) talks is likely to be held in December, shortly after the local elections. One Taiwan goal for the talks will be to double the number of cross-Strait flights to 540 per week. While some lower level PRC officials have reacted positively to the idea of Taiwan negotiating FTAs with other trading partners after concluding an ECFA with China, Chu believed the decision on this issue would have to come from the top in Beijing and would not happen right away. TAIPEI 00000637 002 OF 003 Chu relayed that Minister Mentor Lee Kuan-yew had told him earlier this year that Singapore was prepared to negotiate a bilateral trade agreement with Taiwan after the cross-Strait ECFA was concluded, and he assumed that the cautious Singaporeans would have already checked this out with Beijing. ¶6. (C) If ARATS Chairman Chen Yunlin's visit to Taiwan this December goes smoothly, it might be possible to entertain a visit to Taiwan next year by Wang Yi, Chu suggested. Chu said he expects President Ma to assume the KMT chairmanship when Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung's term ends on September 12, and he suggested that Ma will want to phase out the annual KMT-CCP talks after the next round is held in July. Any consideration of Ma attending APEC or visiting China in the role of KMT chairman would have await Ma's second presidential term, Chu said. (Note: The next presidential election will be in March 2012.) Chu asked the Director about his thoughts on PRC Vice President Xi Jinping, who may succeed Hu Jintao as PRC president in 2012. Assuming Xi succeeds Hu and Ma is elected to a second term, then Xi, who would be consolidating his power, might be somewhat risk averse at a time Ma could be hoping for bolder initiatives out of Beijing, the Director pointed out. ¶7. (C) According to Chu, the KMT was pleased there was a good turnout for the opposition DPP's demonstration on May 17 because it would send the signal to China that Ma was doing his best in the face of internal criticism of his cross-Strait policy in democratic Taiwan. Chu claimed he had slipped in some references to Taiwan's government and institutions during his appearance in Fujian, but somewhat mournfully noted he had neglected to make any reference to "President Ma," as Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu had done recently in Beijing, to great local acclaim here. Jason Hu's April Visit to Hong Kong -------------- ¶8. (C) Mayor Hu described his April visit to Hong Kong as a breakthrough in Taiwan's relations with Hong Kong. In explaining why Hong Kong had chosen to invite him specifically, Hu noted that he had an established relationship with Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Stephen Lam, who is responsible for Taiwan Affairs. The results of the visit included Hong Kong's agreement to improve the visa status for Taiwan visitors and to establish a Hong Kong - Taiwan Cities Forum. While in Hong Kong, Hu said, he made clear his view that China should support the improvement of Hong Kong-Taiwan ties. Hu also told the Director he hoped Taiwan, Hong Kong, Fujian, and Guangdong could become one of the world's important mega-regions, which are centers of productivity and innovation. ¶9. (C) Hu said he gave several public talks during his visit to Hong Kong, and representatives from Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the mainland all attended such an event for the first time. Professor Lung Ying-tai, a well-known Taiwan intellectual who teaches at Hong Kong University, asked Hu to speak at the university about the future of the Chinese nation. Hu said he used a poetic phrase in his speech to describe the relations between Taiwan, Hong Kong, and the PRC: "New Moon (Taiwan),Bright Pearl (HK),and Red Sun (PRC)." The idea was to forget about independence or unification for Taiwan but rather to focus on developing proper interaction so that the different parties could act in union. While his speech was well received in Hong Kong, Hu said he had not publicized it in Taiwan because he was worried the DPP would distort his ideas. KMT Politics -------------- ¶10. (C) According to Hu, President Ma is "definitely" going to resume the party chairmanship and is confident he can do well. When Ma raised the issue publicly without informing Wu Poh-hsiung in advance, however, he angered the incumbent party chairman. Saying Ma is unhappy with the business dealings in China by members of SEF Chairman P.K. Chiang's family, Hu predicted that Chiang will step down at the end of TAIPEI 00000637 003 OF 003 the year. Hu did not know whether Wu Poh-hsiung would be appointed the next SEF chairman. Wu Poh-hsiung's son (Wu Chih-yang) wants to run for Taoyuan County magistrate, Hu noted, and therefore Wu Poh-hsiung has been extremely nice to Eric Chu. Once he leaves the party chairmanship, Wu Poh-hsiung could become a target of criticism, and "hell could break lose," Jason Hu suggested. ¶11. (C) According to Hu, there are tensions within the KMT between Ma Ying-jeou and Lien Chan, and between Lien Chan and Wu Poh-hsiung. In the end, however, it is Ma's show, and Lien Chan will gradually fade away, Hu predicted. Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng is not in the center of the KMT picture, he added. Upcoming Local Elections -------------- ¶12. (C) Hu said Wu Poh-hsiung and President Ma had tried hard to persuade him to run for Taipei County magistrate, since he was the only potential KMT candidate who outpolled former Premier Su Tseng-chang, the likely DPP candidate if the election were held in 2009. By deciding now to elevate the status of Taipei County and postpone the election until 2010, the KMT has let him off the hook temporarily but may well turn to him again next year. Saying there were also many people who thought he should be premier or party chairman, Hu said his personal preference was to remain in Taichung and run for mayor of the new Taichung City that will be created in 2010 when the current Taichung City and County are merged. ¶13. (C) Because the election in Taichung will be postponed from 2009 to 2010. his current term as mayor of Taichung City will be extended for one year. Nonetheless, Hu said, he was considering stepping down from the mayorship at the end of this year, in which case a deputy mayor would serve as acting mayor and complete his term. Hu thought the people in Taichung would miss him and that taking a year off would enable him to do even better in the 2010 election. DPP --- ¶14. (C) Although the KMT government is postponing several local elections from 2009 to 2010 for its own interests. Hu said, the delay is also good for DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen, because the DPP would not do well if all the elections were held this year. Hu believed Tsai was the best person for chair of the DPP, which, he said, needs to move more to the middle of the political spectrum. Despite being under pressure from radicals within the Green camp, Tsai is doing well, he added, and he hoped she can survive. Comment -------------- ¶15. (C) Jason Hu (Hu Chih-chiang) and Eric Chu (Chu Li-lun) have both been closely linked to Ma Ying-jeou, as reflected in the media-coined expression "Ma Li-chiang," which takes one character from each of their names. While Hu is two years older than Ma and there have been some questions about his health, Chu is a full ten years younger and will turn 48 in June. Chu will step down from his current position as Taoyuan County magistrate in December after completing his second term. With additional experience, probably in the central government, Chu could become a potential successor to Ma in the 2016 presidential election, some contacts have suggested. YOUNG