DPP CHAIR TSAI ING-WEN ON DOMESTIC POLITICS AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000625

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/22/2019
TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIR TSAI ING-WEN ON DOMESTIC POLITICS AND
CROSS-STRAIT ISSUES

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen told the Director she
decided to visit former President Chen on May 14 because the
"absolutely absurd" court decision to continue Chen's
detention had made her "very mad." Tsai said the DPP's May
17-18 protest demonstration against Ma administration
policies had successfully conveyed the party's message and
boosted the confidence of DPP supporters. The DPP is
critical of the Ma administration's planned reorganization of
local government which could result in delaying the key
Taipei County election from 2009 to 2010. While former
Premier Su Tseng-chang would run if the election is held this
December, his calculations may change if the election is
delayed, she explained, referring to Su's interest in running
for president in 2012. Tsai described the DPP's plan to call
for a referendum on the Ma administration's proposal to
conclude an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA)
with China as a no risk move. End Summary.

Chen Shui-bian's Continued Detention "Absolutely Absurd"
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2. (C) DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen told the Director on May 21
that she had decided to visit former President Chen Shui-bian
in the Taipei Detention Center last Thursday after reading in
the newspapers about the court's decision to extend Chen's
detention for another two months. Saying she had become
"very mad" when reading the article, Tsai maintained that the
court's decision was "absolutely absurd from a legal point of
view." In the May 14 meeting, which also included former
Premier Su Tseng-chang, Chen had expressed support for the
upcoming May 17 DPP protest rally and had also discussed his
own case. According to Tsai, who is a lawyer, the
prosecutors so far have not come up with a strong legal case,
either in terms of evidence or legal arguments, against the
former president. Recently, the prosecutors filed new
charges against Chen because they wanted to extend his
detention, she suggested. Although party members have been
divided in their opinions about Chen, they are now united in
opposing Chen's continued detention.

DPP's May 17-18 Protest Rally and Sit-in
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3. (C) The DPP's May 17 protest rally was a success, Tsai
stressed. According to DPP polling conducted after the
rallies in Taipei and Kaohsiung, more than 500,000 people
participated in the two events. DPP polling also indicates
the public believes the DPP conducted the rally in a
disciplined and responsible way. Also, according to polling,
the rally effectively conveyed the party's message. However,
one-third of the Green supporters polled (the radical wing of
the party) thought the demonstration should have continued
until May 20 (the first anniversary of Ma's inauguration)
rather than ending the evening of May 18. The rally served
to relieve anxiety and boost confidence among Green
supporters, Tsai observed. As the meeting was concluding,
she said without going into detail that there may be another
protest rally next month.

Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu Visits China
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4. (C) Tsai noted she had said publicly that she respected
and supported Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu's decision to visit
China to promote the World Games that Kaohsiung will be
hosting in July. Tsai said she was comfortable with Chen
Chu's visit, which did not involve cross-Strait issues and
which she saw as a single, separate case.

Administrative Reorganization and Local Elections
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5. (C) According to DPP polls, public support for President
Ma Ying-jeou is around 40 percent, Tsai said. Tsai
criticized the Ma administration's plan to divide Taiwan into
three municipalities and 15 counties and cities, saying it

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would create an unfair urban-rural divide since people would
all pay the same taxes but the municipalities would get more
resources. The current DPP proposal, she added, is to divide
Taiwan into six administrative districts. On the likelihood
that some key local elections, especially Taipei County, may
be postponed from 2009 to 2010 due to administrative changes,
Tsai characterized this as a KMT "dirty trick." While Su
Tseng-chang will run if there is an election in Taipei County
this December, his calculations may be different if the
election there is postponed until next year. (Comment: Su
may not want to run in Taipei County late next year because
of his interest in running for president in 2012.)

Unhappiness with Ma in the KMT
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6. (C) Tsai speculated that Ma Ying-jeou's motivation in
wanting to become KMT chairman was to gain control over the
KMT-CCP forum. DPP International Affairs Director Bikhim
Hsiao, who participated in the meeting with the Director,
said she had heard about currents of dissatisfaction with Ma
within the KMT. These included Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker
Wang Jin-pyng and legislators who were unhappy that Ma was
not giving the LY a voice on cross-Strait policy. KMT
legislators from areas with many farmers and workers were
concerned about the effects of ECFA on the people in their
districts. According to Hsiao, there is "boiling
unhappiness" under the surface in some KMT circles.

DPP Government Promoted Cross-Strait Opening
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7. (C) During its eight years in power, Tsai said, her party
did a great deal in opening cross-Strait economic relations.
However, this was not generally recognized because of
President Chen's rhetoric and KMT "bad-mouthing" of the DPP
as protectionist and refusing to deal with China. KMT
politicians who visited China also falsely accused President
Chen of planning various plots, which the Chinese then raised
in their discussions with the U.S.

ECFA Referendum
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8. (C) Tsai said the DPP's plan to launch a signature drive
to call a referendum on ECFA is a no risk move. The
signature drive will be an educational process and a
political movement, she said, adding that DPP polling
indicates 64 percent of the public favor a referendum on
ECFA. The ECFA referendum, which will not be combined with
an election, will ask voters, "Do you agree to ECFA?" It
will be fine with the DPP if the referendum fails. (Note:
More than half of all eligible voters must participate to
validate a referendum. Previous island-wide referenda have
all failed because they did not meet this participation
threshold. If this referendum fails, the DPP can argue that
the government should not negotiate an ECFA.) Tsai said that
the DPP does not oppose ECFA itself, only an ECFA that is
non-transparent and under "one China." Taiwan would also
need assurances from China that it will be able to talk to
other countries about FTAs.

Comment
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9. (C) Tsai was relaxed in the meeting, clearly pleased that
the May 17-18 protests had gone so smoothly and had drawn a
large turnout. In addition to launching the ECFA referendum
signature drive, Tsai said she will be busy visiting local
areas to hold campaign rallies for the DPP candidates in the
December local elections. Tsai told she had just held the
first campaign kickoff rally, in Keelung City.
YOUNG