DEEP GREEN LEADERS FRET OVER CROSS-STRAIT AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000579 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/13/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW SUBJECT: DEEP GREEN LEADERS FRET OVER CROSS-STRAIT AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS UNDER THE MA ADMINISTRATION Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: At a dinner for the Director on May 12 hosted by DPP Legislator Trong Chai, a group of Deep Green leaders registered their concerns about President Ma "selling out" Taiwan to the PRC. Trong Chai expressed hope the U.S. would take a more balanced approach to Taiwan politics and not publicly endorse President Ma and his cross-Strait policies. Participants suggested Taiwan is becoming more politically polarized and the potential for violence is increasing, as some "radicals" are arguing that confrontation will be needed to "stop" Ma. The group also suggested that government officials have begun to interfere in student protests and academic and press freedom under the Ma administration. The Director underscored the importance of avoiding political violence and pursuing political goals through democratic processes. The discussion also covered upcoming demonstrations against the Ma government and the recent remarks by Japanese Representative Saito suggesting Taiwan's status is undetermined. End Summary. Criticizing Ma's Cross-Strait Policies -------------- ¶2. (C) On May 12, DPP Legislator Trong Chai hosted the Director, DDIR, and POL Chief and Deputy to a dinner with nine other prominent pan-Green leaders. The Green leaders focused mainly on concerns about the direction and pace of President Ma Ying-jeou's cross-Strait policies. After several guests suggested Ma was "selling out" Taiwan to the mainland, former Presidential Advisor Peng Ming-min went a step further, claiming Ma was actually "giving away" Taiwan. The group maintained that Ma was hastily negotiating agreements with China without protecting Taiwan's "sovereignty." For example, former Mainland Affairs Council (MAC) Chairman Joseph Wu said he had always been careful to prevent Beijing from being able to claim cross-Strait flights were domestic rather than international. However, Ma has said publicly that "one China" is no problem for him, and had proved this by opening Taiwan's domestic as well as international airports to cross-Strait flights. ¶3. (C) Our hosts claimed that the Ma administration and the pro-Blue media -- itself coming under increasing PRC influence -- have been effective in spreading the idea that Taiwan has to rely on China to avoid being marginalized economically. In fact, it is Beijing which has been working to marginalize Taiwan by blocking its moves to negotiate FTAs with other countries. While the Green camp does not oppose developing economic relations with China on the basis of equality, Taiwan's interests must be protected in this process. The Ma administration, though, has announced major initiatives without interagency reviews and evaluations and without building a broad public consensus for them. Moreover, the Legislative Yuan (LY) has not been allowed to play a proper oversight role. For example, Joseph Wu said, in one case, President Ma saw off a ship sailing across the Strait while the LY was still reviewing the agreement authorizing the trip. The group also faulted the Ma administration for not taking a strong enough stand against the PRC military threat. March 17 Demonstrations -------------- ¶4. (C) The Green leaders all planned to participate in one or both demonstrations on May 17 protesting the Ma administration's policies. Former Examination Yuan President Yao Chia-wen predicted 200,000 would join the DPP demonstration in Taipei, and the other guests said they also expected a large crowd at the event in Kaohsiung, which is being put on by Deep Green organizations. One guest suggested that pressure from the Deep Green had led to DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen's decision to hold a 24-hour silent protest sit-in following the May 17 event. Political Polarization and Potential for Violence -------------- -------------- TAIPEI 00000579 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) Soochow University Professor Lo Chih-cheng asserted that Taiwan has become increasingly polarized politically since Ma came into office. Several guests expressed concern about the potential for violence. Green supporters are frustrated by Ma's "pro-China tilt," and some radicals believe they will have to "spill blood" to stop Ma. One guest suggested that Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin might be greeted by even larger protests during his next visit to Taiwan than those he encountered in Taipei last November. Importance of Democracy -------------- ¶6. (C) Stressing the importance of preserving and further developing Taiwan's democracy, the Director cited the destructive turmoil in Thailand as an example of what can happen when political parties fail to maintain dialogue and instead resort to violence. The Director acknowledged the DPP's frustration at having only 25 percent of the seats in the LY despite winning 40 percent of the votes. He asked what the DPP should do to improve its standing and whether the party was considering making any adjustment to its cross-Strait policy to attract more supporters. Several participants suggested that the new LY electoral system plus vote buying by the KMT would make it difficult for the DPP to win elections. Moreover, President Chen's practice of recruiting local DPP leaders into the central government had depleted the party's talent pool at the local level. Former Taiwan representative to Japan Lo Fu-chen said a recent poll indicated a majority of the public in Taiwan dislike both the KMT and DPP. The DPP needs to do a better job of articulating alternative policies rather than simply rejecting whatever the KMT proposes, he suggested. Lo Chih-cheng suggested that the December local elections will not be a good test for the DPP because such elections hinge on local factions, personalities, and issues. Backsliding on Human Rights -------------- ¶7. (C) The group suggested that there has been some backsliding on human rights issues under the KMT government, hearkening back to the KMT's authoritarian past. According to Lo Chih-cheng, school officials had asked instructors at his university to identify participants in a protest movement, and some demonstrators had been contacted by Ministry of Justice Investigation Bureau (MJIB) officers. Other guests noted that scholars in some thinktanks had been warned not to criticize President Ma's proposed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China and that advertising on some television stations had also been cut off. Japan Representative Saito's Remarks on Taiwan's Status -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) As a result of democratization, Lo Chih-cheng maintained, the people of Taiwan have come to regard Taiwan as a sovereign state. The sovereignty of Taiwan resides in its 23 million people, who vote for their national legislature and president, he suggested. Lo noted he had attended the May 1 seminar in Chiayi at which Japan Interchange Association (JIA) Director Masaki Saito had made remarks suggesting that Taiwan's status is undetermined. Lo interpreted Saito's remarks as a response to a statement by President Ma on April 28 claiming that the 1952 Japan - ROC peace treaty proved that Taiwan belongs to the ROC. According to Lo, no media was present at the Chiayi seminar, but NSC official Philip Yang, who complained to Saito, leaked the story to two pro-Blue newspapers. The guests suggested that Saito's remarks represented the Japanese internal view, though the Japanese government does not state this publicly. Citing past statements by U.S. officials, former Presidential Advisor Wu Li-pei suggested the U.S. position, though ambiguous, also could be interpreted as indicating Taiwan's status is undetermined. TAIPEI 00000579 003 OF 003 ¶9. (C) In conclusion, Trong Chai expressed hope the U.S. would take a balanced approach to Taiwan's party politics, and consider de-emphasizing public endorsement of President Ma and his cross-Strait policies. According to Chai, public statements endorsing Ma have been discouraging to DPP supporters. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Trong Chai and the other Green leaders seemed to hope the dinner discussion would help us better understand their objections to the Ma administration's policies, especially on cross-Strait relations. These leaders were from the highly committed Deep Green wing of the Green camp, so it is not surprising that they did not see any need to adjust their own views on cross-Strait issues. Although most of the participants were leaders of Deep Green political organizations, only three were actual DPP members, so it is also not surprising that they did not have much to say on what the DPP needs to do to make a comeback. Nevertheless, the frustration, unease, and low morale they exuded illustrate the challenge the opposition faces as it struggles to reconstitute itself as a credible alternative to KMT dominance. YOUNG