TRYING TIMES FOR DPP CHAIR TSAI ING-WEN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 TAIPEI 000529 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/01/2019 TAGS: PGOV PINR TW SUBJECT: TRYING TIMES FOR DPP CHAIR TSAI ING-WEN REF: A. TAIPEI 1601 ¶B. TAIPEI 0352 ¶C. TAIPEI 0438 ¶D. TAIPEI 0488 Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Tsai Ing-wen continues efforts to overcome challenges and revitalize Taiwan's major opposition party as she nears her first anniversary as DPP Chairperson. Tsai's moderate and cautious approach has drawn criticism from some DPP supporters who want the party to take a more confrontational stand against the Ma Ying-jeou administration. Difficult challenges, including the party's lack of funds, contention over nominations and former President Chen Shui-bian's corruption trial, have hindered Tsai's efforts to remake the DPP into a viable alternative to the ruling KMT. The success of an upcoming protest demonstration and how the party fares in local elections in December will be important tests of Tsai's leadership. Several DPP contacts have suggested Tsai would step down if the party does poorly at the polls in December. End summary. ¶2. (C) Halfway into her two-year term as leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),Tsai Ing-wen is struggling to revitalize her fractious party, which emerged tattered from defeats in the 2008 legislative and presidential elections. Tsai, who served as vice premier under Premier Su Tseng-chang, was elected DPP chairperson on May 18, 2008, easily overcoming challenges from two Deep Green fundamentalists (Koo Kuan-min and legislator Trong Chai, who dropped out in favor of Koo). Many in the DPP hoped Tsai, an academic and bureaucrat with minimal experience in electoral politics and party work, would give the party a clean image and fresh start. However, leading the party has proven more difficult than winning the chairperson election. Tsai's background and experience have not fully prepared her for political party leadership and the series of difficult challenges that came with it. ¶3. (C) The DPP traditionally has been dominated by intraparty factions and their leaders. As an outsider to DPP politics, Tsai has attempted to balance the various factions, trying not to offend anyone. However, her moderation and the support she has received from the New Tide faction may have alienated some of the party's Deep Green fundamentalists. With a background in international trade, law, and government service, Tsai has made it her mission to strengthen the party by promoting reforms and giving greater weight to policy issues, based on the DPP's having been in power for eight years. She has hoped to deemphasize controversial Taiwan independence themes while laying greater emphasis on social and economic welfare issues, especially addressing the problems faced by lower income and disadvantaged groups. In February and March, Tsai, together with the Taiwan Solidarity Union, organized two Citizens National Affairs Conferences to critique government policies and production recommendations on social, economic, and and cross-Strait issues. Challenges -------------- ¶4. (C) When Tsai became DPP Chairperson, President Ma Ying-jeou was just coming into office and enjoyed great popularity. Anticipating they would be facing a "long winter" in opposition, other DPP leaders were content to stay in the background. This gave Tsai room to launch several intra-party reforms, one being to give her control of nominations for the December local elections. Subsequently, Ma's polling numbers dropped sharply, a result of the economic downturn, and other DPP leaders, sensing new opportunities, began to speak out and maneuver for political advantage, threatening to undermine Tsai's leadership. Former Vice President Annette Lu has launched a newspaper, while former presidential candidate Frank Hsieh now has his own radio show. DPP Legislator Chiu Yi-ying labeled the maneuvering of these and other party heavyweights as Tsai's TAIPEI 00000529 002 OF 004 "big crisis." Pressure to Take to the Streets -------------- ¶5. (C) Moreover, radical DPP supporters have been pressing Tsai to take a tougher stand against President Ma and the KMT administration, both rhetorically and by going back to the streets. Tsai, whose natural inclinations are moderate, has felt a need to defuse this pressure but she is out of her element in street protests. Following two successful demonstrations last year, the inexperienced Tsai lost control of a large DPP protest against visiting high-level PRC representative Chen Yunlin (ref A). Former DPP International Affairs Director Lin Chen-wei told us, based on phone calls received at party headquarters, that DPP supporters were split 50-50 over whether the party should confront the KMT more assertively. Other DPP contacts stress Tsai is under "extreme pressure" from Deep Green fundamentalists who want the party to take to the streets. Nominations -------------- ¶6. (C) The DPP party congress in July 2008 agreed to temporarily jettison a divisive primary system and centralize the nomination of candidates for the December local elections, in the hands of Tsai and party headquarters. The new nomination process has made Tsai a direct target for criticism. Her decision to nominate legislator Lee Chun-yee rather than former Presidential Office Secretary General Mark Chen to run for Tainan County magistrate has proven especially controversial. According to our contacts, Tsai rejected Chen because she wanted to groom a new generation of leaders (Chen is 73),and because she feared Chen, who is closely connected to former President Chen Shui-bian, would turn the media focus on overall local election campaigns into a rehash of Chen Shui-bian's flawed record. Despite being passed over for the nomination, Mark Chen, who served as magistrate in Tainan from 1993 to 2001 and has a following in county, so far has refused to withdraw from the race, creating the possibility of a DPP loss in a 3-person contest in the Green heartland (ref C). DPP leaders will continue efforts to persuade him to withdraw from the race. Short of Funds -------------- ¶7. (C) Election campaigns, street protests, and other activities all require funds, and DPP finances have been shaky since the party's election defeats last year. Contacts have told AIT that the party barely had enough at one point to cover its bills for operating expenses, let alone pay down its large campaign debts. Tsai has reduced the party headquarters staff and floorspace, and she has launched a not very successful small donation campaign. The current economic downturn and Chen Shui-bian,s corruption trial are hindering the party,s ability to raise funds, especially from businesses. One reason for Tsai's upcoming trip to Canada and the U.S. is to raise funds from the party's overseas Taiwanese supporters (ref D). Chen Shui-bian -------------- ¶8. (C) Tsai's work has been complicated by the detention, indictment, and trial of former President Chen Shui-bian (ref E). A small but vocal group of supporters have been pressing Tsai to do more to back the former president, while some party leaders want Tsai to make a cleaner break with Chen. Chen has not made things any easier for the party chairperson, criticizing Tsai as the DPP's Ma Ying-jeou (i.e., a weak leader). For her part, Tsai has called for a fair trial and the protection of Chen's rights, but she has been quite firm in not endorsing the former President's defense case. The next hearing on whether Chen should continue to be held in detention is scheduled for May 7. If Chen is released, as many expect, he may well become a bigger TAIPEI 00000529 003 OF 004 thorn in the party's side. DPP International Affairs Director Bikhim Hsiao predicted to AIT that Chen would work to stir up his supporters and might even try to launch a referendum signature drive on Ma Ying-jeou's proposed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China. Out of Place in DPP Culture -------------- ¶9. (C) Tsai tends to be low-key and businesslike, a sharp contrast to the assertive leaders of the past who emerged from social and political protest movements. She approaches difficult issues cautiously, and, realizing her inexperience in party affairs, takes her time in making decisions. Radical supporters sometimes misinterpret her low-key manner and caution as indecisiveness and weakness, but she is firm in her decisions and quite demanding of her staff. ¶10. (C) Bikhim Hsiao described Tsai as an intellectual and not a grassroots campaigner, someone who faces "heavy burdens" and pressure from party supporters who want her to do more. DPP supporters feel frustrated, not seeing that Tsai is actually moving the party forward because Tsai is not very public about her efforts. Hsiao admitted that Tsai's moderation and tendency to think things through carefully often leads to missed opportunities. For example, Tsai's remarks are usually too bland to be picked up as sound bites by Taiwan's media. DPP supporters are more used to charismatic leaders like Chen Shui-bian, who could stir a crowd and sound convincing, whether or not he had given much thought to his remarks. Moreover, Tsai is more comfortable speaking in Mandarin, but DPP grassroots crowds expect their leaders to speak in Taiwanese. Tsai Puts On Tough Front and Takes On Two Tests -------------- -- ¶11. (C) Although "not happy" about the situation she and the DPP currently face, Tsai Ing-wen "is not a quitter," Bikhim Hsiao stressed, adding that Tsai will not give up her current moderate approach. Tsai admitted to the Director that she is "not really excited about politics," but asked not to be quoted. ¶12. (C) Following an initial year of adjustment, Tsai will need to demonstrate more concrete results in her second year, DPP Central Standing Committee Member Luo Wen-jia suggested to us recently. One test of Tsai's leadership will be the DPP's May 17 march and rally to protest KMT administration policies on the first anniversary of Ma's inauguration. Bikhim Hsiao defined success for this event as a large turnout (the goal is 300,000) plus keeping the demonstration peaceful and orderly. She cautioned that some radicals could try to stir up confrontations, while the possibiliy of KMT infiltrators inciting incidents could also not be ruled out. ¶13. (C) The second and more critical test for Tsai will come in December when Taiwan will hold elections for city mayors and county magistrates. The DPP, which currently holds 6 of 23 local governments, all in southern Taiwan, hopes to maintain its current standing and add at least one or two seats. If the DPP drops below 6 local governments, Tsai is likely to face pressure to step down or might well decide to do so on her own, following traditional DPP practice. Although a major loss would disappoint the party and Tsai, some DPP members, for example, Taipei City Councilor Wu Szu-yao, suggest that it will take another major defeat to force the party to face its problems and reinvent itself. Bio Note -------------- ¶14. (SBU) Tsai earned an undergraduate degree in law from National Taiwan University in 1978, a master,s in law from Cornell University in 1980, and a doctorate in juridical science (J.S.D.)from the London School of Economics in 1984. She was a professor at Taiwan,s Soochow and National Chengchi universities before joining the Ministry of Economic TAIPEI 00000529 004 OF 004 Affairs as a chief legal advisor from 1992-2000. Tsai helped draft documents and laws related to Taiwan,s WTO accession. She was Mainland Affairs Council Chairperson from 2000-2004, an at-large DPP legislator from 2004-2005, and Vice Premier from 2006-2007. Tsai then served as chair of TaiMed Biologics, a biotechnology firm funded by the Taiwan government and private investors, including her family. She was elected DPP Chairperson on May 18, 2008 Tsai speaks excellent English and has a wry sense of humor. YOUNG