DPP CHAIR ON U.S. TRIP, TAIWAN POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000488

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2019
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP CHAIR ON U.S. TRIP, TAIWAN POLITICS

REF: A. TAIPEI 0367

B. TAIPEI 0438

Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Opposition DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen told the
Director during an April 23 meeting that the main purpose of
her visit to the United States in early May was to "touch
base with" supporters. DPP International Affairs Director
Bikhim Hsiao added that fundraising was another important
trip goal. Tsai discussed DPP preparations for an upcoming
demonstration timed around the one-year anniversary of
President Ma's inauguration and for the December city and
county elections. She predicted the DPP could win six to
eight of the 23 races being contested (it now holds six),but
admitted that the party is struggling to identify good
candidates. On intra-party politics, she said some forces
within the DPP were attempting to use the independence issue
as a tool to incite a power struggle. Tsai acknowledged the
party needed to address the independence issue but should not
be subsumed by it. End Summary.

Reaching Out to Overseas Supporters
--------------


2. (C) In a friendly meeting at DPP headquarters on April 23,
Chair Tsai Ing-wen told the Director that she viewed her
upcoming visit to the U.S. as an opportunity to touch base
with the party's overseas Taiwanese supporters. She
characterized overseas supporters as either more apathetic or
more radical than their counterparts on Taiwan. Although
Tsai downplayed fundraising as an objective of the trip,
International Affairs Director Bikhim Hsiao told the Director
before Tsai entered the room that this would be an important
goal.


3. (C) Hsiao pointed out that she and Tsai will try do
overseas what they are also attempting to do on Taiwan: boost
the enthusiasm of DPP supporters. Tsai noted this task was
difficult for her because she is "not particularly excited
about politics," then quickly asked not to be quoted. Tsai
and Hsiao are slated to arrive in Washington DC on May 4
after attending the Canadian Liberal Party's convention and
Liberal International meeting in Vancouver. Tsai will depart
Washington on May 7 and stop in Houston, San Diego and San
Jose before returning to Taipei.

Preparing for May Rally and December Local Elections
-------------- --------------


4. (C) On May 17, the DPP will hold a protest march and rally
in Taipei, to mark the one-year anniversary of Ma Ying-jeou's
inauguration on May 20, 2008. The rally will have four
themes: oppose the incompetence of Ma's administration, save
the unemployed, attack special privileges (referring to
allegations that KMT officials misuse their positions) and
protect Taiwan's sovereignty. Noting there have been
suggestions to hold a demonstration in Kaohsiung as well,
Tsai said this issue is still being debated but the current
plan is to stage a rally in Taipei only.


5. (C) Looking ahead to the December local elections, Tsai
acknowledged that the party has been struggling to select
"ideal" candidates and is also short of funds for
campaigning. Nonetheless, she predicted a "good" outcome for
the DPP, so long as pro-KMT voters are not enthusiastic
enough to turn out and vote. The results in December could
be similar to the outcome of the Taipei Da'an District
legislative by-election in March, she suggested, when the DPP
candidate garnered a larger percentage of the overall votes
even though his own vote total did not increase compared to
the DPP candidate in the preceding election (ref A). Tsai
opined the party may win six to eight seats but could end up
with fewer if candidates "screw up," (i.e. if DPP members run
against each other in the same race, a reference to the
current situation in Tainan County). (Note: The DPP
currently holds six local governments, all in southern
Taiwan.)


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6. (C) The Director asked Tsai how and when the DPP would
resolve the problem of former Presidential Office Secretary
General Mark Chen's determination to run for Tainan County
magistrate, despite losing the nomination to legislator Lee
Chun-yee (ref B). Tsai responded that the DPP has "already
nominated" its candidate in Tainan County. Acknowledging
that Tainan County has a significant population of senior
citizens who support the elder Mark Chen, Tsai nevertheless
asserted that the younger generation in the county prefers
Lee. When asked about DPP nominee Tang Huo-shen's withdrawal
from the Nantou County race on April 22, Tsai blamed the
situation on "bad local politics," explaining that attacks
from those who were against him prompted Tang to pull out.
(Note: Some DPP members in Nantou were dissatisfied with the
decision to nominate Tang, who lost in the 2008 legislative
election.) Tsai, nonetheless, said the DPP has a chance in
Nantou, which is currently held by the KMT, but did not
suggest who the new party nominee might be.


7. (C) Providing a broader perspective, Tsai assessed that
the DPP's comeback will be a "slow, long process." She
admitted that some forces within the party are attempting to
use the independence issue as a tool to incite an internal
power struggle. While the DPP needs to address the issue of
independence, she said, the party must not be subsumed by
this issue.

China is Ma's "Opium"
--------------


8. (C) Leery of President Ma's cross-Strait policy, Tsai
quipped that Ma relies on China like it is "opium." Beijing
is helping Ma look good, she suggested. For example, the PRC
has allowed an increasing number of mainland visitors to
travel to Taiwan and continues to pump money into the Taiwan
economy to help the KMT create the image that the economic
situation in Taiwan is not that bad.


9. (C) Tsai deemed Ma becoming KMT Chairman in June to be a
"sure plan" and labeled it a mistake. She believed Ma would
only be making trouble for himself as the KMT is a
"complicated piece of machinery." If Ma takes up the
chairmanship, he will have to deal with the differing
opinions within his party, just as she was experiencing in
leading the DPP.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Tsai was in good spirits, perhaps looking forward to
her upcoming trip and lifted by Bikhim Hsiao's return to head
the International Affairs Department. Hsiao's predecessor
Lin Chen-wei, who recently left to teach in Japan, told us
several times that Tsai was trying to persuade Hsiao to take
up a full-time position at party headquarters.
YOUNG