DPP CHAIR ON U.S. TRIP, TAIWAN POLITICS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000488 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2019 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: DPP CHAIR ON U.S. TRIP, TAIWAN POLITICS REF: A. TAIPEI 0367 ¶B. TAIPEI 0438 Classified By: AIT Deputy Director Robert S. Wang, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Opposition DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen told the Director during an April 23 meeting that the main purpose of her visit to the United States in early May was to "touch base with" supporters. DPP International Affairs Director Bikhim Hsiao added that fundraising was another important trip goal. Tsai discussed DPP preparations for an upcoming demonstration timed around the one-year anniversary of President Ma's inauguration and for the December city and county elections. She predicted the DPP could win six to eight of the 23 races being contested (it now holds six),but admitted that the party is struggling to identify good candidates. On intra-party politics, she said some forces within the DPP were attempting to use the independence issue as a tool to incite a power struggle. Tsai acknowledged the party needed to address the independence issue but should not be subsumed by it. End Summary. Reaching Out to Overseas Supporters -------------- ¶2. (C) In a friendly meeting at DPP headquarters on April 23, Chair Tsai Ing-wen told the Director that she viewed her upcoming visit to the U.S. as an opportunity to touch base with the party's overseas Taiwanese supporters. She characterized overseas supporters as either more apathetic or more radical than their counterparts on Taiwan. Although Tsai downplayed fundraising as an objective of the trip, International Affairs Director Bikhim Hsiao told the Director before Tsai entered the room that this would be an important goal. ¶3. (C) Hsiao pointed out that she and Tsai will try do overseas what they are also attempting to do on Taiwan: boost the enthusiasm of DPP supporters. Tsai noted this task was difficult for her because she is "not particularly excited about politics," then quickly asked not to be quoted. Tsai and Hsiao are slated to arrive in Washington DC on May 4 after attending the Canadian Liberal Party's convention and Liberal International meeting in Vancouver. Tsai will depart Washington on May 7 and stop in Houston, San Diego and San Jose before returning to Taipei. Preparing for May Rally and December Local Elections -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) On May 17, the DPP will hold a protest march and rally in Taipei, to mark the one-year anniversary of Ma Ying-jeou's inauguration on May 20, 2008. The rally will have four themes: oppose the incompetence of Ma's administration, save the unemployed, attack special privileges (referring to allegations that KMT officials misuse their positions) and protect Taiwan's sovereignty. Noting there have been suggestions to hold a demonstration in Kaohsiung as well, Tsai said this issue is still being debated but the current plan is to stage a rally in Taipei only. ¶5. (C) Looking ahead to the December local elections, Tsai acknowledged that the party has been struggling to select "ideal" candidates and is also short of funds for campaigning. Nonetheless, she predicted a "good" outcome for the DPP, so long as pro-KMT voters are not enthusiastic enough to turn out and vote. The results in December could be similar to the outcome of the Taipei Da'an District legislative by-election in March, she suggested, when the DPP candidate garnered a larger percentage of the overall votes even though his own vote total did not increase compared to the DPP candidate in the preceding election (ref A). Tsai opined the party may win six to eight seats but could end up with fewer if candidates "screw up," (i.e. if DPP members run against each other in the same race, a reference to the current situation in Tainan County). (Note: The DPP currently holds six local governments, all in southern Taiwan.) TAIPEI 00000488 002 OF 002 ¶6. (C) The Director asked Tsai how and when the DPP would resolve the problem of former Presidential Office Secretary General Mark Chen's determination to run for Tainan County magistrate, despite losing the nomination to legislator Lee Chun-yee (ref B). Tsai responded that the DPP has "already nominated" its candidate in Tainan County. Acknowledging that Tainan County has a significant population of senior citizens who support the elder Mark Chen, Tsai nevertheless asserted that the younger generation in the county prefers Lee. When asked about DPP nominee Tang Huo-shen's withdrawal from the Nantou County race on April 22, Tsai blamed the situation on "bad local politics," explaining that attacks from those who were against him prompted Tang to pull out. (Note: Some DPP members in Nantou were dissatisfied with the decision to nominate Tang, who lost in the 2008 legislative election.) Tsai, nonetheless, said the DPP has a chance in Nantou, which is currently held by the KMT, but did not suggest who the new party nominee might be. ¶7. (C) Providing a broader perspective, Tsai assessed that the DPP's comeback will be a "slow, long process." She admitted that some forces within the party are attempting to use the independence issue as a tool to incite an internal power struggle. While the DPP needs to address the issue of independence, she said, the party must not be subsumed by this issue. China is Ma's "Opium" -------------- ¶8. (C) Leery of President Ma's cross-Strait policy, Tsai quipped that Ma relies on China like it is "opium." Beijing is helping Ma look good, she suggested. For example, the PRC has allowed an increasing number of mainland visitors to travel to Taiwan and continues to pump money into the Taiwan economy to help the KMT create the image that the economic situation in Taiwan is not that bad. ¶9. (C) Tsai deemed Ma becoming KMT Chairman in June to be a "sure plan" and labeled it a mistake. She believed Ma would only be making trouble for himself as the KMT is a "complicated piece of machinery." If Ma takes up the chairmanship, he will have to deal with the differing opinions within his party, just as she was experiencing in leading the DPP. Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) Tsai was in good spirits, perhaps looking forward to her upcoming trip and lifted by Bikhim Hsiao's return to head the International Affairs Department. Hsiao's predecessor Lin Chen-wei, who recently left to teach in Japan, told us several times that Tsai was trying to persuade Hsiao to take up a full-time position at party headquarters. YOUNG