DPP LEGISLATOR TRONG CHAI ON PARTY POLITICS,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000462

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/14/2019
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: DPP LEGISLATOR TRONG CHAI ON PARTY POLITICS,
DECEMBER LOCAL ELECTIONS, AND CROSS-STRAIT ISSUES

REF: TAIPEI 0438

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Opposition DPP legislator Trong Chai (Tsai
Tung-jung) told the Director on April 13 that he was "not too
optimistic" about his party's chances in the December local
elections. Chai assessed the DPP would have a hard time
retaining the six city and county magistrate seats it
currently holds (out of 23),blaming the KMT's practice of
vote-buying as one reason for his party's electoral
difficulties. Chai criticized President Ma Ying-jeou's
cross-Strait policies and wondered how the United States
would react if Beijing provides financial and political
support to Ma's reelection campaign in 2012. End Summary.

Local Elections Tough For DPP
--------------


2. (C) "Not too optimistic" is how Democratic Progressive
Party (DPP) legislator Trong Chai characterized his party's
chances in the December local elections. Chai told the
Director on April 13 that the DPP should be able to hold on
to Pingtung and Kaohsiung counties and Tainan City but might
have a hard time retaining its three other seats (Yunlin,
Chiayi, and Tainan counties). For example, he explained, it
will be tough for the DPP's Su Chih-fen to win reelection as
Yunlin County magistrate because likely KMT candidate Chang
Li-shan's family heads the major local faction. Chang's
"gangster" brother (Chang Jung-wei) would "encourage" people
to vote for his younger sister, Chai suggested. In Chiayi
County, incumbent Magistrate Chen Ming-wen, who is completing
his second term, was detained for corruption last fall and
subsequently released on bail, but the case could erupt again
at any time, hurting the DPP's chances.


3. (C) The DPP also stands to lose Tainan County if the party
continues to be divided over its nominee. On April 1, the
party selected legislator Lee Chun-yee to run for Tainan
County magistrate, but former Presidential Office Secretary
General Mark Chen still insists on running and has set up a
campaign office (reftel). While agreeing with the Director
that it is a "good idea" in principle for the party to make
room for younger talent (Note: Mark Chen is 73),Chai
maintained that the party should have nominated Chen because
his poll ratings were higher than Lee's. At the very least,
the party should have informed Chen earlier that he was not
going to be nominated, rather than waiting until after polls
were conducted.


4. (C) Chai believed former Premier Su Tseng-chang will run
for Taipei County magistrate. The KMT is likely to offer
incumbent Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei, whose ratings are
consistently low, a cabinet position. The KMT may try to
recruit either Taoyuan County Magistrate Eric Chu or Taichung
Mayor Jason Hu for the Taipei County election, though Chai
acknowledged that Chu is probably more interested in becoming
premier.


5. (C) A major challenge for the DPP as it prepares for local
elections is the persistence of vote buying by the KMT, Chai
asserted. The cash-strapped DPP is in a weak position
opposite the well-endowed KMT. Chai does not see an end to
the deeply ingrained practice.

KMT and China in Cahoots
--------------


6. (C) Chai insisted there is no need for a KMT-DPP dialogue
so long as President Ma continues to "sell out" Taiwan to
China. Dialogue would be possible only when Ma changes his
tack. Chai also suggested that the proposed Economic
Cooperation Framework Agreement with China should be put to a
referendum. Chai claimed that Beijing is directing Ma
Ying-jeou and the KMT.


7. (C) Toward the end of the discussion, Chai asked to see
the Director alone for a few minutes. He asked what the U.S.

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would do if the PRC provided financial and political support
to Ma Ying-jeou's 2012 reelection campaign. The Director
began by saying China has tried to influence previous Taiwan
presidential elections, with contrary results. He also
suggested it would be difficult for such actions to be
concealed, especially if they were on a large scale. The
Director stressed that the U.S. supports Taiwan's democracy,
and would likely take a dim view of any attempt by outside
forces to tamper with it.


8. (C) Curiously enough, Chai separately urged the USG to
support the DPP financially, given its disadvantage compared
to the better endowed KMT. The Director brushed the request
aside, saying the USG doesn't involve itself in financing
political parties anywhere in the world. The Director
related his experience as Ambassador to Kyrgyzstan, where we
supported NGO development, rule of law programs, judicial
exchanges and freedom of the press. But never political
parties. Chai took the point.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Although he had requested the meeting to raise former
President Chen Shui-bian's daughter Chen Hsing-yu's student
visa application, Chai appeared content to focus the
discussion on Taiwan politics. Chai said his ties to Chen
Shui-bian were not that warm, but he seemed pleased that
Chen's letter to him was featured as the second entry in a
50-letter collection just published by the former president.
Bio Notes: Trong Chai is an influential but quixotic
politician who ran unsuccessfully for the DPP Chairmanship
last year. He spent 30 years in the U.S. studying and
teaching before returning to Taiwan in the early 90's once
his name was removed from the KMT "blacklist." Chai founded
the Formosan Association for Public Affairs (FAPA) while he
was in the U.S. and counts a number of U.S. legislators and
academics among his friends.
YOUNG