CROSS-STRAIT DETENTE FUELS WORRIES ABOUT RELATIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000461

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW CH
SUBJECT: CROSS-STRAIT DETENTE FUELS WORRIES ABOUT RELATIONS
WITH THE U.S.

REF: TAIPEI 416


1. (SBU) Summary: At a recent pro-government conference on
the 30th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA),
panelists, mostly from the U.S., expressed support for the Ma
administration's efforts to improve cross-Strait relations
and stressed that the U.S. will continue to provide Taiwan
with strong support. Panelists suggested that the
U.S.-Taiwan-PRC triangular relationship should not be viewed
as a zero sum game but can produce winning outcomes for all
three parties. Some members of the audience, reflecting
opposition views, worried that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship
might weaken as Beijing's influence over Taiwan grows.
Moreover, in their view, the U.S. could become less
responsive to Taiwan's arms and other needs as Washington
increasingly focuses on the U.S.-China relationship. End
Summary.

Ma Argues Detente Enhances Taiwan International Space
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2. (SBU) Speaking at an April 12 International Conference on
30 years of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA),President Ma
Ying-jeou argued that improved relations with the mainland
will also allow Taiwan more freedom to expand its
international space and enhance relations with allies and
friends, including the U.S. Ma also insisted his
cross-Strait policy will not compromise Taiwan's sovereignty.

Worries Unabated Despite Assurance of U.S. Support
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3. (SBU) Conference panelists, mostly American academics
interspersed with a few Taiwan academics, were united in
their view that the TRA serves American and Taiwan interests
and that U.S. support for Taiwan will continue for the
foreseeable future. Many members of the audience, however,
questioned whether the TRA will continue to fully meet
Taiwan's needs. They pointed to the PRC's rising influence
over Taiwan and the increasing importance of China to the
U.S. as reasons for concerns that the U.S.-Taiwan
relationship might weaken in the future.


4. (SBU) According to CSIS's Bonnie Glaser, concerns that
growing cross-Strait linkages would lead to weakened U.S.
support for Taiwan are based on the mistaken presumption that
the U.S.-Taiwan-PRC relationship is a zero-sum game. Rather,
she argued, the relationship can have a win-win-win outcome
for all three parties, a point also stressed by Ma Ying-jeou
in his opening address. Several panelists suggested that
fears the PRC will force Taiwan to unify are unfounded since
Beijing, like others, has a strong interest in maintaining
cross-Strait peace and stability. Moreover, unification,
which is only a distant possibility, would require the
consent of the people on Taiwan expressed through a legal
process.


5. (SBU) Despite the reassurances offered by many foreign
panelists, members of the audience continued to express
concerns that closer cross-Strait relations would lead to
greater distance between Taiwan and the U.S. The U.S.,
focused on its increasingly important relationship with
China, may become less responsive to Taiwan's concerns, some
suggested. Moreover, the slow but insistent pull of the
mainland will limit Taiwan's future political options as
Beijing influences Taipei's decisionmaking on key issues,
such as international space. Some audience members worried
that growing PRC clout could result in the U.S. stepping back
from its strong public support for Taiwan and also reduce
U.S. willingness to provide Taiwan with the arms it needs to
negotiate with the mainland from a position of strength.

Comment
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6. (SBU) Although the April 12 conference was organized as a
pro-government event, many members of the audience appeared
to be from the pan-Green camp, which worries about the

TAIPEI 00000461 002 OF 002


implications of President Ma's cross-Strait policies. In
their view, Ma is granting Beijing too much influence over
Taiwan's foreign policy and economic interests while failing
to protect Taiwan's sovereignty. While there is clearly a
domestic political aspect to this argument - Ma's
cross-Strait policies have become a rallying cry for the
opposition DPP, the concern on the part of some that moving
into the dragon's embrace is a risky venture appears genuine.
YOUNG