CROSS-STRAIT DETENTE FUELS WORRIES ABOUT RELATIONS

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000461 SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL TW CH SUBJECT: CROSS-STRAIT DETENTE FUELS WORRIES ABOUT RELATIONS WITH THE U.S. REF: TAIPEI 416 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: At a recent pro-government conference on the 30th anniversary of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA), panelists, mostly from the U.S., expressed support for the Ma administration's efforts to improve cross-Strait relations and stressed that the U.S. will continue to provide Taiwan with strong support. Panelists suggested that the U.S.-Taiwan-PRC triangular relationship should not be viewed as a zero sum game but can produce winning outcomes for all three parties. Some members of the audience, reflecting opposition views, worried that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship might weaken as Beijing's influence over Taiwan grows. Moreover, in their view, the U.S. could become less responsive to Taiwan's arms and other needs as Washington increasingly focuses on the U.S.-China relationship. End Summary. Ma Argues Detente Enhances Taiwan International Space -------------- -------------- ¶2. (SBU) Speaking at an April 12 International Conference on 30 years of the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA),President Ma Ying-jeou argued that improved relations with the mainland will also allow Taiwan more freedom to expand its international space and enhance relations with allies and friends, including the U.S. Ma also insisted his cross-Strait policy will not compromise Taiwan's sovereignty. Worries Unabated Despite Assurance of U.S. Support -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Conference panelists, mostly American academics interspersed with a few Taiwan academics, were united in their view that the TRA serves American and Taiwan interests and that U.S. support for Taiwan will continue for the foreseeable future. Many members of the audience, however, questioned whether the TRA will continue to fully meet Taiwan's needs. They pointed to the PRC's rising influence over Taiwan and the increasing importance of China to the U.S. as reasons for concerns that the U.S.-Taiwan relationship might weaken in the future. ¶4. (SBU) According to CSIS's Bonnie Glaser, concerns that growing cross-Strait linkages would lead to weakened U.S. support for Taiwan are based on the mistaken presumption that the U.S.-Taiwan-PRC relationship is a zero-sum game. Rather, she argued, the relationship can have a win-win-win outcome for all three parties, a point also stressed by Ma Ying-jeou in his opening address. Several panelists suggested that fears the PRC will force Taiwan to unify are unfounded since Beijing, like others, has a strong interest in maintaining cross-Strait peace and stability. Moreover, unification, which is only a distant possibility, would require the consent of the people on Taiwan expressed through a legal process. ¶5. (SBU) Despite the reassurances offered by many foreign panelists, members of the audience continued to express concerns that closer cross-Strait relations would lead to greater distance between Taiwan and the U.S. The U.S., focused on its increasingly important relationship with China, may become less responsive to Taiwan's concerns, some suggested. Moreover, the slow but insistent pull of the mainland will limit Taiwan's future political options as Beijing influences Taipei's decisionmaking on key issues, such as international space. Some audience members worried that growing PRC clout could result in the U.S. stepping back from its strong public support for Taiwan and also reduce U.S. willingness to provide Taiwan with the arms it needs to negotiate with the mainland from a position of strength. Comment -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Although the April 12 conference was organized as a pro-government event, many members of the audience appeared to be from the pan-Green camp, which worries about the TAIPEI 00000461 002 OF 002 implications of President Ma's cross-Strait policies. In their view, Ma is granting Beijing too much influence over Taiwan's foreign policy and economic interests while failing to protect Taiwan's sovereignty. While there is clearly a domestic political aspect to this argument - Ma's cross-Strait policies have become a rallying cry for the opposition DPP, the concern on the part of some that moving into the dragon's embrace is a risky venture appears genuine. YOUNG