OPPOSITION DPP FACES DIFFICULT CHALLENGES IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000438

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2019
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION DPP FACES DIFFICULT CHALLENGES IN
PREPARING FOR KEY LOCAL ELECTIONS IN DECEMBER

REF: A. TAIPEI 0388

B. TAIPEI 0289

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: The opposition DPP hopes to begin a comeback
in key year-end local elections, but faces difficulties
stemming from former President Chen's corruption trial,
friction in the candidate nomination process, and a shortage
of campaign funds. Too many politicians want to run in the
Green-majority districts in southern Taiwan, while the party
is having trouble persuading people to run in northern
districts where the DPP has little hope this December. The
party's recent decision to nominate legislator Lee Chun-yee
to run for Tainan County magistrate has opened a rift as
Lee's rival, former Presidential Office Secretary General
Mark Chen, has vowed to continue his campaign. While the DPP
could face reverses in some southern districts, including
Yunlin and Chiayi Counties, it has opportunities elsewhere,
for example, Yilan County. However, victory and defeat in
December will hinge on which party wins Taipei County, home
to one-sixth of Taiwan's population. End Summary.


2. (C) So far, the opposition DPP has selected 12 candidates
for the 21 county magistrates and city mayors expected to be
contested in the December 5 local elections. (Note:
Following a recent amendment to the law on April 4, Taichung
City and County will be merged and elevated in status, with
the Taichung election now expected to be held in 2010 rather
than 2009. The Taichung election would coincide with
elections in Taipei and Kaohsiung Cities, which will be held
in December 2010.) For the elections this December, the DPP
has given the nominating power to the party's central
leadership, temporarily suspending a divisive primary process
that contributed to defeats in the 2008 legislative
elections.


3. (C) Several DPP contacts have told AIT that, while many
politicians wanted to run in the Green stronghold districts
in southern Taiwan, the party was having great difficulty
finding anyone willing to run in some other districts, for
example Miaoli and Hualien, where the DPP had little or no
chance of winning. DPP Organizational Development Director
Wu Hsiang-jung stressed the importance of finding candidates
who would sink their roots into the community rather than
disappearing after election day. The party has repeatedly
nominated DPP official and academic You Ying-long to run for
positions in Hualien, he noted, but DPP supporters are miffed
that You always deserted them, returning to Taipei after each
election loss. The DPP had hoped to recruit some respected
former officials and academics to run in local elections, but
a number of these figures, including former TECRO
Representative Joseph Wu, have declined DPP offers.


4. (C) The DPP might also try a different tack and back
non-DPP candidates running against KMT contenders in certain
areas. DPP Chair Tsai recently told AIT that the party had
successfully adopted such a strategy in the March 14 Miaoli
legislative by-election worked and said the DPP would be
willing to form similar alliances with non-KMT candidates in
the future. (Note: The DPP did not nominate a candidate in
Miaoli but rather provided low-key backing to independent
candidate Kang Shih-ju, who won an upset victory over the KMT
candidate (ref B).

Rift in Tainan County
--------------


5. (C) The protracted nomination process in Tainan County,
the home district of former President Chen Shui-bian, has
been highly contentious. The DPP Central Executive Committee
on April 1 chose legislator Lee Chun-yee over former
Presidential Office Secretary General Mark Chen and
legislator Yeh Yi-jin as the party's candidate for Tainan
County magistrate. Mark Chen, who is close to Chen Shui-bian
and some deep Green independence fundamentalists, claims the
selection was unfair and insists he will run in the election
regardless (ref A). Wu Hsiang-jung said the party will

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continue to negotiate with Mark Chen, predicting his campaign
effort will lose steam within a month or so as his support
base defects.


6. (C) According to Wu, Mark Chen's supporters persuaded him
to join the contest for the nomination, hoping to secure
future advantages for themselves. From the start, however,
DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen was opposed to nominating Mark Chen,
believing it was inappropriate for him to again compete for a
post he held some years ago (1993-2000). Just days before
the nomination, former DPP presidential candidate Frank Hsieh
and Central Standing Committee Member Tuan I-kang separately
told AIT they expected the nod to go to Yeh Yi-jin, who
apparently was Tsai's initial choice. According to Wu
Hsiang-jung, Tsai and other party leaders concluded that Lee
was a stronger campaigner and would also be better able to
stand up against pressure, especially from the former
president. In addition, a controversial meeting with the
jailed Chen Shui-bian damaged Yeh's chances.

All Important Taipei County
--------------


7. (C) In terms of political significance as well as size,
Taipei County is worth eight to ten other counties, KMT
legislator Wu Yu-sheng told us. Soochow University Professor
Lo Chih-cheng noted that Taipei County is popularly known as
"Little Taiwan" because a high proportion of its large
population comes from other areas throughout Taiwan. The
county leans Blue but is competitive, and current KMT
Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei ranks very low in public opinion
polls, giving the DPP an opportunity. Our DPP contacts hope
former Premier Su Tseng-chang, who was a highly popular
Taipei County magistrate from 1997-2004, will enter the race.
Su polls far higher than Chou Hsi-wei and almost any other
potential KMT candidate, with the exception Taichung Mayor
Jason Hu, who is about even with Su. Moreover, the DPP
believes a ticket headed by Su would help other DPP
candidates island wide in December. While Su's ultimate goal
is to run for president and a loss in Taipei County, a real
possibility, might abruptly end his political career, it
appears likely he will run, both to serve the party and to
bolster a future run for the presidency. The DPP and KMT are
playing a waiting game over their nominations in Taipei
County, each hoping the other party will show its cards
first. There is a slight possibility that the status of
Taipei County might be raised, in which case the election
would be delayed until December 2010.

Other Races
--------------


8. (C) The DPP currently holds six cities and counties, all
in southern Taiwan, the two at greatest risk in the December
elections being Yunlin and Chiayi Counties. (Note: The
number six does not include Kaohsiung City, where the
election will be held in 2010.) In Yunlin, where local
factions are important, incumbent Magistrate Su Chih-fen will
face a difficult race, and the DPP is having trouble coming
up with a strong candidate in Chiayi County. Outside
southern Taiwan, the DPP may have opportunities to win
elsewhere, for example, in Yilan County where polling
indicates the race is very close at this stage.

The Chen Shui-bian Factor
--------------


9. (C) Former President Chen, on trial for a series of
corruption charges, is an important factor that will continue
to affect DPP recovery efforts in the run up to the December
elections and beyond. Pro-Blue media, especially television,
are keeping an intense spotlight on all aspects of the
investigation and trial of Chen. Although under detention,
Chen has found ways to launch a series of public criticisms
against a range of DPP leaders. Most recently, Chen turned
his sights on DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen, saying he regretted
having nominated her for a legislative at-large seat in 2004
since she was not now providing him the support he needed.
Our DPP contacts worry that Chen may cause more trouble if,

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as they expect, he is released from detention in May.

Campaign Funding Shortfall
--------------


10. (C) Nominating candidates is one thing; financing their
campaigns is another. DPP Special Advisor Bikhim Hsiao
lamented to AIT that the party barely has enough resources to
cover its debt, let alone fund campaigns. The DPP's shortage
of funds compared to the KMT was apparent during the two
parties' election eve rallies in the recent Da'an legislative
by-election. While the crowd at the KMT rally was treated to
fireworks and musical performances, the DPP could not afford
to provide such entertainment at its rally. DPP Chair Tsai
Ing-wen recently told AIT that party fundraising had fallen
off precipitously as a result of former President Chen's
corruption case and the economic downturn. With Taiwan
corporations now unwilling to make political contributions to
the DPP, Tsai is stepping up efforts to raise funds from
overseas Taiwanese supporters and will embark on a
fundraising trip to Canada and the United States in early
May. While candidates running in Green majority districts
can raise funds locally, the party headquarters has to help
fund the campaigns of those it recruits to run in "difficult"
districts where the DPP has little chance of winning.


11. (C) DPP contacts complain that the KMT has more
resources to fund campaigns and engages in vote buying. With
the lack of funds and the continued prevalence of
vote-buying, many DPP contacts question how well the party
can help finance its candidates' campaigns. Even though
vote-buying is illegal, our DPP contacts say the practice is
still common outside Taipei and they worry that the economic
downturn may increase vote buying in rural areas.

Comment
--------------


12. (C) In the December elections, the DPP hopes to add one
or two more seats to the six it currently holds. Two
contests are of special importance to the party. A win in
Taipei County would be regarded as a major overall victory
for the DPP in the December local elections, regardless of
how well the party does elsewhere. However, if the current
rift is not healed and the DPP loses Tainan County, that
would be a damaging symbolic defeat for the party. Local
personalities and issues will be key factors in the December
elections. More generally, the economic downturn has
depressed the enthusiasm of some who have supported the KMT,
but the situation is changeable between now and December.
Moreover, despite the KMT's very apparent problems, there is
little evidence so far of a DPP recovery.

YOUNG