KMT CHAIRMAN WU POH-HSIUNG ON DECEMBER LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000430

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019
TAGS: PGOV TW
SUBJECT: KMT CHAIRMAN WU POH-HSIUNG ON DECEMBER LOCAL
ELECTIONS, NEXT PARTY CHAIRMAN

Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung told the Director
on April 8 that dissatisfied voters had sent a message to
President Ma and the KMT in two recent legislative
by-elections, where the party did not do as well as in 2008.
Nonetheless, Wu did not expect the city and county elections
in December to produce a substantial shift in the current
balance between the ruling KMT and opposition DPP. The most
important race will be Taipei County, he stressed. Incumbent
Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei, who has a weak record, will not
necessarily receive the KMT nomination, as the party will
select a candidate who can win the election. There is also a
possibility Taipei County may be elevated in status to "New
Taipei City," in which case the election there would be
delayed until December 2010. The decision on whether
President Ma will become party chairman or whether Wu might
continue for another term will be made in June, the KMT
chairman said. Wu also noted his plan to visit Nanjing on
June 1 to attend a ceremony at the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum
commemorating the 80th anniversary of Sun's reinterment. End
Summary.

Miaoli and Taipei Legislative By-Elections
--------------


2. (C) The Director and KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung discussed
recent legislative by-elections, upcoming local elections and
deciding on the next party chairman in a meeting at KMT
headquarters on April 8. Wu acknowledged the KMT had
miscalculated the voting in the March 14 Miaoli by-election
and had also nominated the wrong candidate, the wife of a
legislator removed for vote buying. The Miaoli election was
a battle between two local factions and two different
localities in the district. The winner, independent Kang
Shih-ju, will not join the DPP because he would be unable to
win future elections in this Blue-majority district. Wu
dismissed DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen's suggestion that Kang's
victory represented an accomplishment for the DPP. The KMT's
Chiang Nai-shin won the March 28 Da'an district legislative
by-election, Wu noted, but by a margin of less than 10,000
votes, short of the predicted margin of 15-16,000 votes. The
voters have sent a message to President Ma and the KMT about
their dissatisfaction, and the KMT will need to be careful,
he concluded.

December City and County Elections
--------------


3. (C) The KMT has named 9 of 23 candidates for the December
5 city and county elections, completing the first stage of
its three-stage nomination process, Wu said. (Note: Taichung
City and County are slated to be merged and raised in status,
with the election there to take place in 2010, in which case
there would be 21 and not 23 elections this December.) The
most difficult districts, including Taipei and Taoyuan
Counties, are being reserved for the third stage. Although
third stage candidates are scheduled to be named on June
14-15, the process may be slowed down for districts where a
candidate who can win the general election has not yet been
identified. Delaying the nomination will not necessarily
create problems for the campaign, since with modern
communications and publicity, one month would be enough for
someone who is already quite well known. Wu noted that there
is intense competition for the nomination in Taoyuan County.
Although his son, legislator Wu Chih-yang is far ahead in the
polls in Taoyuan, Wu stressed he could not get involved in
the selection process because of the family connection.

Taipei County
--------------


4. (C) Wu expressed some uncertainty over whether former
Premier Su Tseng-chang (DPP) would actually enter the Taipei
County race, since Su's final goal was to run for president
rather than magistrate. Moreover, Su's strong showing in
early public opinion polls is no guarantee he would win on
election day in December. Implying the KMT will not

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necessarily stick with incumbent magistrate Chou Hsi-wei,
whose polling numbers lag far behind Su's, Wu stressed that
the party will nominate someone who can win the election. Wu
doubted Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu would leave Taichung to
run in Taipei County unless Hu has higher political
ambitions. Hu is more likely to remain in Taichung where his
term will be extended for one year and he can be confident he
can win the 2010 mayoral election in the expanded and higher
status Taichung City. Wu noted that, with a recent change in
the law, cities and counties other than Taichung can also
apply to become higher level jurisdictions for which
elections will be held in 2010 rather than 2009. If the
county council agrees, Taipei County can apply to become "New
Taipei City," in which case its election would also be
postponed until December 2010.

Yilan County
--------------


5. (C) The race in Yilan County is very tight, Wu
acknowledged. Although incumbent Lu Kuo-hua (KMT) is a good
magistrate, he does not have close relations with the speaker
and members of the county council. However, the days when
candidates had to rely on council members to deliver votes
are over, Wu suggested. Individual voters, especially in
urban areas, are much more independent than in the past and
are no longer willing to take their cues from grassroots KMT
officials. Given modern communications, including internet,
candidates now can make their appeal directly to the voters.

Tainan County and General Situation
--------------


6. (C) The Director noted the split in Tainan County between
DPP nominee Lee Chun-yee and former Presidential Office
Secretary General Mark Chen, who insists on running despite
not getting the party's nod. The KMT would have an
opportunity in Tainan County if there is a split between two
DPP candidates, Wu acknowledged, but he doubted Mark Chen
would stay in the race up to election day. More generally,
Wu predicted there will not be a major shift in the KMT-DPP
balance in the December local elections, with a maximum shift
of perhaps 2-3 seats. (Note: The current balance is KMT and
allies - 17, DPP - 6.) The most important contest will be
Taipei County, he emphasized. That said, Wu admitted, if the
DPP totaled ten wins, it would be a setback for the KMT.

Next KMT Chairman
--------------


7. (C) Wu said registration for the KMT chairman election
will take place in June, with the intra-party election for
chairman to be held in July. President Ma and he will decide
in June how to fill the position, Wu suggested. If Ma wants
to be party chairman, Wu stressed he would not compete with
Ma for the position. Although some people around Ma are
telling him that he can control the KMT LY caucus if he
becomes party chairman, this is inaccurate because the
legislators have their own interests and views, and are not a
rubber stamp. Wu said the media was making up stories by
suggesting there were differences between him and the
president.

Wu to Visit Nanjing in June
--------------


8. (C) Wu said he expected to fly to Nanjing on June 1 to
attend a ceremony at the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum commemorating
the 80th anniversary of Sun's reinterment.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) Wu, who emphasized his lack of political ambitions,
seems quite prepared to yield the party chairmanship to Ma if
that is Ma's wish. There is considerable speculation that
his son being nominated as the KMT candidate for Taoyuan
might become "payoff" for Wu's stepping aside if Ma decides
he wants the chairmanship. However, Wu also seems interested

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in continuing for another term if Ma decides not to take up
the party chairmanship. DPP strategists have been hoping
that a Su Tseng-chang campaign in Taipei County will energize
the DPP campaign effort island wide this December. If Taipei
County is turned into New Taipei City, delaying the election
there until 2010, that would throw DPP planning awry and it
would also resolve the KMT's most immediate problem in the
upcoming local election campaign.

YOUNG