KMT CHAIRMAN WU POH-HSIUNG ON DECEMBER LOCAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000430 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/08/2019 TAGS: PGOV TW SUBJECT: KMT CHAIRMAN WU POH-HSIUNG ON DECEMBER LOCAL ELECTIONS, NEXT PARTY CHAIRMAN Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung told the Director on April 8 that dissatisfied voters had sent a message to President Ma and the KMT in two recent legislative by-elections, where the party did not do as well as in 2008. Nonetheless, Wu did not expect the city and county elections in December to produce a substantial shift in the current balance between the ruling KMT and opposition DPP. The most important race will be Taipei County, he stressed. Incumbent Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei, who has a weak record, will not necessarily receive the KMT nomination, as the party will select a candidate who can win the election. There is also a possibility Taipei County may be elevated in status to "New Taipei City," in which case the election there would be delayed until December 2010. The decision on whether President Ma will become party chairman or whether Wu might continue for another term will be made in June, the KMT chairman said. Wu also noted his plan to visit Nanjing on June 1 to attend a ceremony at the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum commemorating the 80th anniversary of Sun's reinterment. End Summary. Miaoli and Taipei Legislative By-Elections -------------- ¶2. (C) The Director and KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung discussed recent legislative by-elections, upcoming local elections and deciding on the next party chairman in a meeting at KMT headquarters on April 8. Wu acknowledged the KMT had miscalculated the voting in the March 14 Miaoli by-election and had also nominated the wrong candidate, the wife of a legislator removed for vote buying. The Miaoli election was a battle between two local factions and two different localities in the district. The winner, independent Kang Shih-ju, will not join the DPP because he would be unable to win future elections in this Blue-majority district. Wu dismissed DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen's suggestion that Kang's victory represented an accomplishment for the DPP. The KMT's Chiang Nai-shin won the March 28 Da'an district legislative by-election, Wu noted, but by a margin of less than 10,000 votes, short of the predicted margin of 15-16,000 votes. The voters have sent a message to President Ma and the KMT about their dissatisfaction, and the KMT will need to be careful, he concluded. December City and County Elections -------------- ¶3. (C) The KMT has named 9 of 23 candidates for the December 5 city and county elections, completing the first stage of its three-stage nomination process, Wu said. (Note: Taichung City and County are slated to be merged and raised in status, with the election there to take place in 2010, in which case there would be 21 and not 23 elections this December.) The most difficult districts, including Taipei and Taoyuan Counties, are being reserved for the third stage. Although third stage candidates are scheduled to be named on June 14-15, the process may be slowed down for districts where a candidate who can win the general election has not yet been identified. Delaying the nomination will not necessarily create problems for the campaign, since with modern communications and publicity, one month would be enough for someone who is already quite well known. Wu noted that there is intense competition for the nomination in Taoyuan County. Although his son, legislator Wu Chih-yang is far ahead in the polls in Taoyuan, Wu stressed he could not get involved in the selection process because of the family connection. Taipei County -------------- ¶4. (C) Wu expressed some uncertainty over whether former Premier Su Tseng-chang (DPP) would actually enter the Taipei County race, since Su's final goal was to run for president rather than magistrate. Moreover, Su's strong showing in early public opinion polls is no guarantee he would win on election day in December. Implying the KMT will not TAIPEI 00000430 002 OF 003 necessarily stick with incumbent magistrate Chou Hsi-wei, whose polling numbers lag far behind Su's, Wu stressed that the party will nominate someone who can win the election. Wu doubted Taichung City Mayor Jason Hu would leave Taichung to run in Taipei County unless Hu has higher political ambitions. Hu is more likely to remain in Taichung where his term will be extended for one year and he can be confident he can win the 2010 mayoral election in the expanded and higher status Taichung City. Wu noted that, with a recent change in the law, cities and counties other than Taichung can also apply to become higher level jurisdictions for which elections will be held in 2010 rather than 2009. If the county council agrees, Taipei County can apply to become "New Taipei City," in which case its election would also be postponed until December 2010. Yilan County -------------- ¶5. (C) The race in Yilan County is very tight, Wu acknowledged. Although incumbent Lu Kuo-hua (KMT) is a good magistrate, he does not have close relations with the speaker and members of the county council. However, the days when candidates had to rely on council members to deliver votes are over, Wu suggested. Individual voters, especially in urban areas, are much more independent than in the past and are no longer willing to take their cues from grassroots KMT officials. Given modern communications, including internet, candidates now can make their appeal directly to the voters. Tainan County and General Situation -------------- ¶6. (C) The Director noted the split in Tainan County between DPP nominee Lee Chun-yee and former Presidential Office Secretary General Mark Chen, who insists on running despite not getting the party's nod. The KMT would have an opportunity in Tainan County if there is a split between two DPP candidates, Wu acknowledged, but he doubted Mark Chen would stay in the race up to election day. More generally, Wu predicted there will not be a major shift in the KMT-DPP balance in the December local elections, with a maximum shift of perhaps 2-3 seats. (Note: The current balance is KMT and allies - 17, DPP - 6.) The most important contest will be Taipei County, he emphasized. That said, Wu admitted, if the DPP totaled ten wins, it would be a setback for the KMT. Next KMT Chairman -------------- ¶7. (C) Wu said registration for the KMT chairman election will take place in June, with the intra-party election for chairman to be held in July. President Ma and he will decide in June how to fill the position, Wu suggested. If Ma wants to be party chairman, Wu stressed he would not compete with Ma for the position. Although some people around Ma are telling him that he can control the KMT LY caucus if he becomes party chairman, this is inaccurate because the legislators have their own interests and views, and are not a rubber stamp. Wu said the media was making up stories by suggesting there were differences between him and the president. Wu to Visit Nanjing in June -------------- ¶8. (C) Wu said he expected to fly to Nanjing on June 1 to attend a ceremony at the Sun Yat-sen Mausoleum commemorating the 80th anniversary of Sun's reinterment. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Wu, who emphasized his lack of political ambitions, seems quite prepared to yield the party chairmanship to Ma if that is Ma's wish. There is considerable speculation that his son being nominated as the KMT candidate for Taoyuan might become "payoff" for Wu's stepping aside if Ma decides he wants the chairmanship. However, Wu also seems interested TAIPEI 00000430 003 OF 003 in continuing for another term if Ma decides not to take up the party chairmanship. DPP strategists have been hoping that a Su Tseng-chang campaign in Taipei County will energize the DPP campaign effort island wide this December. If Taipei County is turned into New Taipei City, delaying the election there until 2010, that would throw DPP planning awry and it would also resolve the KMT's most immediate problem in the upcoming local election campaign. YOUNG