SOUTHERN TAIWAN: DPP NOMINEE IN DEEP-GREEN TAINAN COUNTY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000388

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP

FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON TW
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN TAIWAN: DPP NOMINEE IN DEEP-GREEN TAINAN COUNTY
SIGNALS BREAK WITH PAST

SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY


1. (SBU) Summary: Not normally accustomed to the political
spotlight, deep-Green Tainan County, former President Chen's home
district, grabbed headlines on April 1 when the DPP announced its
nominee for this December's county magistrate race. Despite some
local DPP polls showing a clear edge for 73 year-old Mark Chen, a
President Chen era-stalwart and popular former county magistrate,
the DPP signaled a break with the past, nominating instead the
younger Lee Chun-yee, a 50-year old five-time Legislative Yuan (LY)
member. Mark Chen thus far is not going quietly, stating that he
intends to stay in the race until the finish. With loyal supporters
now lining up on each side of the DPP divide, the KMT senses it may
have a chance to seize this normally safe deep-Green county in the
December elections. Meanwhile, the DPP headquarters appears ready
to work frantically to restore unity and bring Mark Chen back into
the fold without, however, giving him the nomination. End summary.


2. (SBU) On April 1, DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen announced that the
party would nominate LY member Lee Chun-yee as its nominee for this
December's magistrate election in Tainan County, former President
Chen's home county and political base. The news set off feverish
local media speculation, as the party chose to rebuff Mark Chen, a
73 year-old former Foreign Minister and Presidential Office SYG
under Chen Shui-bian. Earlier efforts by senior DPP officials to
persuade Mark Chen to step aside were unsuccessful, with Chen
issuing a defiant press statement after the announcement insisting
that although he would remain a DPP member, he would continue to
pursue his candidacy. DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen underscored the party
would continue its efforts to negotiate with Mark Chen (Comment:
i.e., persuade him to step aside).

THE CANDIDATES: TWO OUT OF THREE TARRED BY CSB
-------------- -


3. (SBU) In the run up to the April 1 announcement, the three
declared DPP candidates for the nomination were jockeying furiously
for the party's blessing. The 73 year-old Mark Chen was the most
active, as supporters trumpeted his strong poll ratings (reportedly
ahead of his rivals by at least 9 percentage points in some DPP
polls) and lingering popularity from his two terms as county
magistrate from 1993-2001. (Note: Lee Chun-yee came out first in
one type of poll recently conducted by the DPP.) Nevertheless, the
staunchly pro-independence Mark Chen is also closely associated with
former President Chen, whom he served as Foreign Minister from 2004
to 2006, then Presidential Office SYG, and later National Security
Council SYG.


4. (SBU) Mark Chen's two rivals represented the DPP's younger
generation, 49 year-old four-time LY member Yeh Yi-jin and 50
year-old five-time LY member Lee Chun-yee. Yeh, a Tainan County
native who received a Master's Degree in music education from
Bridgeport University, was an early leading alternative to Mark
Chen. However, she reportedly garnered some criticism within the
party for her association with former First Lady Wu Shu-jen.
Recently, Yeh visited former President Chen in detention to seek his
support for her candidacy. Chen reportedly suggested a deal in
which he would support her in return for her agreement to support
him in a bid for Yeh's vacated Tainan County legislative seat.
Although Yeh strongly denied that she proposed or agreed to any
deal, the controversy over her meeting with Chen apparently
undermined her chances to win the nomination.


5. (SBU) In contrast, Lee Chun-yee, the DPP's eventual nominee, is
closely associated with former DPP Presidential candidate Frank
Hsieh's political faction and has spoken out frequently against
corruption associated with former President Chen and his family. A
Public Administration Master's Graduate from National Chengchi
University and co-founder of a pro-DPP Tainan County TV station, Lee
worked as a reporter for Commons Daily prior to securing his LY seat
in 1995, which he has held ever since. In 1998, Lee was an AIT IV
grantee and participated in a program which took him to Washington
DC, New York, Cleveland, Seattle and Tucson.

THE DECISION: NEW GENERATION BETTER FOR GRASS ROOTS
-------------- --------------


TAIPEI 00000388 002 OF 002



6. (SBU) Lee's supporters have stressed that Lee was a good choice
because of his clean local reputation and strong grass-roots
organization. DPP heavyweights in southern Taiwan, including
Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu, also applauded the choice as a means of
strengthening the DPP's younger generation and broadening the
party's voter base. A Kaohsiung City DPP official who attended the
DPP Central Executive Committee meeting which decided on Lee told
AIT/K that former President Chen's name was never mentioned in the
meeting and the focus was on finding the strongest candidate based
on more than just polls.


7. (SBU) Nevertheless, AIT contacts in outgoing Tainan County
Magistrate Su Huan-Chih's office suggested to us on April 2 that the
specter of former President Chen playing a prominent and visible
role in the county's December campaign haunted high-ranking DPP
officials. They worried that Mark Chen would not be able to resist
the lure of the former President campaigning openly on his behalf,
thereby continuing to tie the party to Chen Shui-bian and the
corruption allegations against him. Su himself has no love lost for
Mark Chen, they pointed out, since the environmentally-aware Su, who
was a legislator at the time, struggled in 2000 with then-Magistrate
Mark Chen over a controversial power plant project.


8. (SBU) There is a broader problem here for the DPP, as an active
role for Chen Shui-bian in just this one of 23 contested local
offices this December would likely reverberate in all the election
campaigns. At a minimum, it would allow KMT candidates across the
island to claim that the former president remains at the center of
DPP politics, an argument that presumably would lose votes for the
DPP throughout Taiwan.

THE CONSEQUENCES: DEEP-GREEN SPLIT
--------------


9. (SBU) In the immediate aftermath of Tsai's announcement, most
local observers see no sign that Mark Chen intends to withdraw.
Tainan County DPP officials told AIT that the party had no
"respected elders" or "wise men" who could help resolve the impasse.
One even hoped that Lee would withdraw in favor of the more
determined Mark Chen to spare the party an embarrassing electoral
defeat in solid DPP territory. DPP contacts in Kaohsiung told us
that party rank and file found the selection process confusing and
that Tsai undermined her stature among deep-Green adherents in the
south by rejecting the still-popular Mark Chen. On April 2, the
Kaohsiung City DPP Chair told us that the party needed a consistent,
island-wide process to select nominees, adding that since Tsai's
announcement, his phone had been ringing "non-stop" questioning how
the party arrived at the choice.

COMMENT
--------------


10. (SBU) With Taiwan's economy in the doldrums, our KMT contacts
in Tainan County had been pessimistic about their chances in the
county - until Tsai's announcement. Running in 2005 against
incumbent Magistrate Su (who was battling health problems at the
time),the KMT candidate came tantalizingly close, ultimately losing
to Su by only three percentage points (50.29 percent to 47.16
percent). Local observers predict that if Mark Chen and Lee both
persist in their quest for the magistrate's seat, the KMT, which
plans to select its nominee in June, would have a good chance to win
former President Chen's home district. Realizing this problem, the
DPP will work to unify the party and bring Mark Chen back into the
fold.

CASTRO

YOUNG