SOUTHERN TAIWAN: DPP NOMINEE IN DEEP-GREEN TAINAN COUNTY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000388 SIPDIS SENSITIVE DEPT FOR AIT/W, EAP/TC, INR/EAP FROM AIT KAOHSIUNG BRANCH OFFICE E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV ECON TW SUBJECT: SOUTHERN TAIWAN: DPP NOMINEE IN DEEP-GREEN TAINAN COUNTY SIGNALS BREAK WITH PAST SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, PLEASE PROTECT ACCORDINGLY ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Not normally accustomed to the political spotlight, deep-Green Tainan County, former President Chen's home district, grabbed headlines on April 1 when the DPP announced its nominee for this December's county magistrate race. Despite some local DPP polls showing a clear edge for 73 year-old Mark Chen, a President Chen era-stalwart and popular former county magistrate, the DPP signaled a break with the past, nominating instead the younger Lee Chun-yee, a 50-year old five-time Legislative Yuan (LY) member. Mark Chen thus far is not going quietly, stating that he intends to stay in the race until the finish. With loyal supporters now lining up on each side of the DPP divide, the KMT senses it may have a chance to seize this normally safe deep-Green county in the December elections. Meanwhile, the DPP headquarters appears ready to work frantically to restore unity and bring Mark Chen back into the fold without, however, giving him the nomination. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) On April 1, DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen announced that the party would nominate LY member Lee Chun-yee as its nominee for this December's magistrate election in Tainan County, former President Chen's home county and political base. The news set off feverish local media speculation, as the party chose to rebuff Mark Chen, a 73 year-old former Foreign Minister and Presidential Office SYG under Chen Shui-bian. Earlier efforts by senior DPP officials to persuade Mark Chen to step aside were unsuccessful, with Chen issuing a defiant press statement after the announcement insisting that although he would remain a DPP member, he would continue to pursue his candidacy. DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen underscored the party would continue its efforts to negotiate with Mark Chen (Comment: i.e., persuade him to step aside). THE CANDIDATES: TWO OUT OF THREE TARRED BY CSB -------------- - ¶3. (SBU) In the run up to the April 1 announcement, the three declared DPP candidates for the nomination were jockeying furiously for the party's blessing. The 73 year-old Mark Chen was the most active, as supporters trumpeted his strong poll ratings (reportedly ahead of his rivals by at least 9 percentage points in some DPP polls) and lingering popularity from his two terms as county magistrate from 1993-2001. (Note: Lee Chun-yee came out first in one type of poll recently conducted by the DPP.) Nevertheless, the staunchly pro-independence Mark Chen is also closely associated with former President Chen, whom he served as Foreign Minister from 2004 to 2006, then Presidential Office SYG, and later National Security Council SYG. ¶4. (SBU) Mark Chen's two rivals represented the DPP's younger generation, 49 year-old four-time LY member Yeh Yi-jin and 50 year-old five-time LY member Lee Chun-yee. Yeh, a Tainan County native who received a Master's Degree in music education from Bridgeport University, was an early leading alternative to Mark Chen. However, she reportedly garnered some criticism within the party for her association with former First Lady Wu Shu-jen. Recently, Yeh visited former President Chen in detention to seek his support for her candidacy. Chen reportedly suggested a deal in which he would support her in return for her agreement to support him in a bid for Yeh's vacated Tainan County legislative seat. Although Yeh strongly denied that she proposed or agreed to any deal, the controversy over her meeting with Chen apparently undermined her chances to win the nomination. ¶5. (SBU) In contrast, Lee Chun-yee, the DPP's eventual nominee, is closely associated with former DPP Presidential candidate Frank Hsieh's political faction and has spoken out frequently against corruption associated with former President Chen and his family. A Public Administration Master's Graduate from National Chengchi University and co-founder of a pro-DPP Tainan County TV station, Lee worked as a reporter for Commons Daily prior to securing his LY seat in 1995, which he has held ever since. In 1998, Lee was an AIT IV grantee and participated in a program which took him to Washington DC, New York, Cleveland, Seattle and Tucson. THE DECISION: NEW GENERATION BETTER FOR GRASS ROOTS -------------- -------------- TAIPEI 00000388 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) Lee's supporters have stressed that Lee was a good choice because of his clean local reputation and strong grass-roots organization. DPP heavyweights in southern Taiwan, including Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu, also applauded the choice as a means of strengthening the DPP's younger generation and broadening the party's voter base. A Kaohsiung City DPP official who attended the DPP Central Executive Committee meeting which decided on Lee told AIT/K that former President Chen's name was never mentioned in the meeting and the focus was on finding the strongest candidate based on more than just polls. ¶7. (SBU) Nevertheless, AIT contacts in outgoing Tainan County Magistrate Su Huan-Chih's office suggested to us on April 2 that the specter of former President Chen playing a prominent and visible role in the county's December campaign haunted high-ranking DPP officials. They worried that Mark Chen would not be able to resist the lure of the former President campaigning openly on his behalf, thereby continuing to tie the party to Chen Shui-bian and the corruption allegations against him. Su himself has no love lost for Mark Chen, they pointed out, since the environmentally-aware Su, who was a legislator at the time, struggled in 2000 with then-Magistrate Mark Chen over a controversial power plant project. ¶8. (SBU) There is a broader problem here for the DPP, as an active role for Chen Shui-bian in just this one of 23 contested local offices this December would likely reverberate in all the election campaigns. At a minimum, it would allow KMT candidates across the island to claim that the former president remains at the center of DPP politics, an argument that presumably would lose votes for the DPP throughout Taiwan. THE CONSEQUENCES: DEEP-GREEN SPLIT -------------- ¶9. (SBU) In the immediate aftermath of Tsai's announcement, most local observers see no sign that Mark Chen intends to withdraw. Tainan County DPP officials told AIT that the party had no "respected elders" or "wise men" who could help resolve the impasse. One even hoped that Lee would withdraw in favor of the more determined Mark Chen to spare the party an embarrassing electoral defeat in solid DPP territory. DPP contacts in Kaohsiung told us that party rank and file found the selection process confusing and that Tsai undermined her stature among deep-Green adherents in the south by rejecting the still-popular Mark Chen. On April 2, the Kaohsiung City DPP Chair told us that the party needed a consistent, island-wide process to select nominees, adding that since Tsai's announcement, his phone had been ringing "non-stop" questioning how the party arrived at the choice. COMMENT -------------- ¶10. (SBU) With Taiwan's economy in the doldrums, our KMT contacts in Tainan County had been pessimistic about their chances in the county - until Tsai's announcement. Running in 2005 against incumbent Magistrate Su (who was battling health problems at the time),the KMT candidate came tantalizingly close, ultimately losing to Su by only three percentage points (50.29 percent to 47.16 percent). Local observers predict that if Mark Chen and Lee both persist in their quest for the magistrate's seat, the KMT, which plans to select its nominee in June, would have a good chance to win former President Chen's home district. Realizing this problem, the DPP will work to unify the party and bring Mark Chen back into the fold. CASTRO YOUNG