MAC CHAIRWOMAN HINTS AT EARLY MAY SEF-ARATS MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 000241 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2019 TAGS: PREL ECON TW CH SUBJECT: MAC CHAIRWOMAN HINTS AT EARLY MAY SEF-ARATS MEETING REF: A. TAIPEI 221 ¶B. TAIPEI 206 Classified By: The Director for reasons 1.4(b/d) Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Taiwan,s legislative calendar may mean the next SEF-ARATS talks could be scheduled for early May, MAC Chairwoman Lai Shin-yuan told the Director March 4. The Legislative Yuan will need to approve agreements that require a change in law to take force, though the government does not envision giving the legislature a more active role in talks. Although the agenda for this next round of talks will not include discussion of a possible broader trade pact with China, media criticism caused the administration to change what its calls the proposed agreement. End Summary. SEF-ARATS in Early May? -------------- ¶2. (C) The next meeting between SEF Chairman P.K. Chiang and ARATS head Chen Yunlin could take place in early May, Mainland Affairs Council Chairman Lai Shin-yuan told the Director during a March 4 meeting. While deferring the SEF-ARATS talks until after the May WHA meeting in Geneva would increase the pressure on China to agree to an acceptable solution for Taiwan,s WHA observer status, Lai said, Taiwan,s legislative calendar made doing so problematic. It seemed certain that agreements under negotiation would require amending Taiwan law, she explained, a process that would take the Legislative Yuan (LY) 4-6 weeks to complete. If the government could not present these changes to the LY with enough time to approve them before its mid-June recess, the government would have to wait until September to have them ratified. Although the government agreed that it is important the LY vet agreements requiring a change in Taiwan law, Lai dismissed as impractical LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng,s desire to play a more active role in actual cross-Strait discussions. ¶3. (C) Noting that the goal is to have two Chiang-Chen meetings in 2009, Lai noted that there are problems with scheduling the meeting at the end of the year. With important local elections scheduled for December 5, and given the political controversy surrounding Chen Yunlin,s last visit to Taiwan, the government will have to plan carefully to make sure neither the elections nor the visit are adversely affected. Nevertheless, Lai expressed confidence that this is not an impossible task. Economic Agreement &Media Frenzy8 -------------- ¶4. (C) Lai was bemused at what she described as media-generated frenzy over the name and content of proposed discussions on closer economic integration with China (ref A). The Ma administration is now (at least temporarily) calling this an Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA),she said, in an effort to blunt the media,s criticism over the title of the previously-proposed &Closer Economic Cooperation Agreement.8 It is premature to fixate on nomenclature, Lai said, since these discussions are not even on the agenda for the next round of SEF-ARATS talks. At this point, Taiwan,s Ministry of Economic Affairs is still exploring the possible scope of such an agreement, Lai said, and had not shared its thinking with MAC. Meanwhile, Lai confirmed that the pace of cross-Strait economic exchanges continues to pick up with a considerable number of large PRC delegations visiting the island in recent weeks (ref B). ¶5. (C) Lai agreed that there is some urgency to address some of the issues to be included in the ECFA, since a pending PRC-ASEAN trade agreement will make Taiwan producers less competitive once it takes effect in 2010. She expressed confidence that China is prepared to move quickly once discussions start, noting that Hu Jintao specifically mentioned the need for such an agreement in his December 31 &six point8 speech. Although Hu also mentioned the need for military dialogue in his speech, it was far too early for Taiwan to start discussing these issues, Lai said. Domestic Politics -------------- ¶6. (C) Lai dismissed as pure partisan politics DPP criticism of proposed CECA/ECFA discussions and urged DIR to make clear in his meetings with DPP leaders U.S. support for efforts to TAIPEI 00000241 002 OF 002 improve cross-Strait relations. DIR emphasized the importance of inter-party dialogue, particularly since many DPP supporters appear genuinely concerned that President Ma is moving too far, too fast. Ultimately, he said, it is important that any agreement enjoy broad public support. On a personal note, Lai confided that, despite having resigned (under threat of expulsion) from Lee Teng-hui,s Taiwan Solidarity Union party, she maintained warm relations with the former President. Comment -------------- ¶7. (C) It is difficult for us to determine just how plugged in Lai is to President Ma's cross-Strait planning. Relations between her and SEF Chairman P.K. Chiang appear correct but not close. Ma seems to manage a good deal of the planning in close consultation with his National Security Advisor Su Chi. With 170 people working at the MAC, it is clearly a player, but may be more involved in implementation of policy than its actual formulation. YOUNG