DPP CHAIRPERSON TSAI ING-WEN ON CROSS-STRAIT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 000183 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/18/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL CH TW SUBJECT: DPP CHAIRPERSON TSAI ING-WEN ON CROSS-STRAIT ISSUES, JUDICIAL CASES, UPCOMING ELECTIONS Classified By: AIT Director Stephen M. Young, Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen told the Director on February 17 that she was concerned about the lack of transparency in the KMT government's dealings with Beijing on WHA and a possible Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA). Tsai worried that President Ma, anxious to show results, may make precedent-setting political concessions that will damage Taiwan's interests. Tsai also argued that the KMT government was intervening in the judicial process against DPP figures, including two county magistrates and former President Chen. Frustrated DPP supporters are urging her to go "radical," Tsai said. The Director urged Tsai to open a dialogue with President Ma to improve the polarized political atmosphere. While not entirely ruling out a dialogue, Tsai suggested that she and Ma had differences over format and agenda, adding that she had invited Ma to attend the Civil National Affairs Conference being co-sponsored by the DPP and TSU this weekend. On the December local elections, Tsai said the DPP has an opportunity in Taipei County, but is in no hurry to select a candidate. End Summary. ¶2. (C) On February 17, the Director called on DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen, who was accompanied by special assistant Bikhim Hsiao and outgoing International Affairs Director Lin Chen-wei. In preparation for his upcoming consultations in Washington, the Director explained, he wanted to hear the DPP perspective on the political situation in Taiwan. The Director noted that in other meetings he had gained a sense that the KMT may feel it needs to tread more carefully on cross-Strait relations at this stage, perhaps pending the outcome of Taiwan's quest for WHA observership. WHA --- ¶3. (C) Tsai stressed DPP concern about the lack of transparency in the KMT government's dealings with China on the WHA issue. President Ma is promising to get something good for Taiwan but without revealing the conditions. What is worse, Taiwan's participation could be under PRC sponsorship rather than as an independent actor. Because he feels under pressure to produce results, Ma might go along with whatever conditions China imposes, Tsai suggested. This could turn into a nightmare if it became a precedent for Taiwan's future participation in other international organizations. The Director reviewed U.S. policy on supporting Taiwan's meaningful participation in international organizations limited to states. While Tsai said she understood the statehood problem, the bottom line is that Taiwan is not supposed to be a part of some other country. ¶4. (C) Asked about Ma's performance, Tsai suggested his priority appears to be the short-term goal of raising his approval rating in the polls. Rather than seeking long-term solutions to Taiwan's economic problems, the government has taken short-term and expensive economic measures. CECA -------------- ¶5. (C) In addition, Tsai said, the Ma government recently has been talking more and more about a cross-Strait Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA). Such an agreement would have a major impact on Taiwan's economic and political relations with China, but the public does not know what CECA is, because of the lack of transparency. There are rumors about confidential talks on this issue between the Ma government and the Chinese, she added. Ma needs to explain his intentions to the public. However, Ma seems to want to keep the cross-Strait agenda, including CECA, out of the Legislative Yuan (LY),the only place where the DPP can exercise its opposition party function. Also, the KMT has shown no willingness to hold dialogue with the DPP caucus, and LY President Wang Jin-pyng, though friendly, is not helpful and does not represent Ma. TAIPEI 00000183 002 OF 003 Chen Shui-bian -------------- ¶6. (C) The Chen Shui-bian legal drama is making life hard for the DPP, Tsai admitted. The judiciary's handling of the case is damaging morale and causing frustration within the party. Tsai claimed to have reliable information that a Deputy Minister of Justice is behind all of the investigations that prosecutors have launched against DPP figures, including Yunlin Magistrate Su Chih-fen and Chiayi Magistrate Chen Ming-wen. The judicial process under the Ma administration has become highly politicized, as evidenced by very extensive leaks from the prosecutors, heavy publicity in television talk shows, and prosecutors even putting on skits to ridicule defendants. Tsai stressed the tremendous pressure she has been under from frustrated DPP supporters, who want her to go "radical." The party is hesitant to launch, or discuss planning for, demonstrations, however, because previous demonstrations led to government arrests and investigations of DPP politicians, Tsai said. Cross-Party Dialogue -------------- ¶7. (C) To improve the polarized political atmosphere, the Director encouraged Tsai to find a way to talk to President Ma Ying-jeou, noting that he had offered the same advice to Ma. Tsai did not know whether Ma would accept her invitation to attend the February 21-22 Civil National Affairs Conference sponsored by the DPP and Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU). As leader, it was important for Ma to listen to different voices, she suggested, adding that Ma's request for an open-ended "chat" prior to the conference was inappropriate. Her agreement to such a meeting would leave frustrated supporters feeling betrayed, she maintained, noting that the conference was intended to produce a common position on important issues. ¶8. (C) Looking ahead to future presidential elections, the Director urged the DPP to reassure Washington that it would not return to the reckless positions adopted by the Chen Shui-bian administration that had ignored U.S. interests and heightened cross-Strait tensions. Tsai took the Director's point and acknowledged there was room for the DPP to improve its handling of relations with the U.S. and China, so long as this did not mean major concessions to Beijing. The DPP has established a China task force, which will review past policies, and the party will probably develop a new plan for managing relations with the U.S. and China. Tsai predicted that the "political concessions" made by Ma to increase cross-Strait stability will backfire, causing domestic instability and tensions within Taiwan. Ma's cross-Strait moves are also making it difficult to persuade DPP supporters to give Tsai the flexibility needed to manage relations with the U.S. and China. Upcoming Elections -------------- ¶9. (C) Turning to upcoming elections, Tsai acknowledged it will be very difficult for the DPP candidate, a senior city councilor, to win the March 28 by-election in Taipei's Da'an District (to fill the vacancy opened by Diane Lee's resignation). In 2008, DPP candidate Luo Wen-jia won only one-third of the votes in this heavily Blue district. Speaking generally, Bikhim Hsiao explained that the DPP does better in elections involving larger jurisdictions, for example, county magistrates and city mayors, than in legislative elections, because local constituent services are a smaller factor. Ironically, she added, the presidency is the easiest election for the DPP to contest. ¶10. (C) The Director asked about the December local elections, especially Taipei County, where KMT Magistrate Chou Hsi-wei appears vulnerable and either former Premier Su Tseng-chang or Tsai could be a strong DPP contender. Acknowledging the DPP's opportunity in Taipei County, Tsai said the party was in no hurry to decide its candidate. The KMT is making a mistake if its strategy is to wait for a DPP TAIPEI 00000183 003 OF 003 announcement before deciding whether to select a candidate other than Chou Hsi-wei, Tsai argued. A new KMT candidate would have too little time to gain the broad level of exposure needed for an effective election campaign. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Tsai clearly hoped the Director would convey to Washington a sense of the DPP's frustration over several issues: the party's current lack of political leverage, the limited transparency surrounding President Ma's cross-Strait policies, and the prosecutions of DPP political figures. Despite such frustration, we do not expect the DPP to turn radical under Tsai's moderate leadership and we do not detect signs of possible political instability at this point. Tsai's major task over the coming months will be to organize a campaign for the December local elections that will strengthen the DPP's political position and help restore party morale. Note: Lin Chen-wei, who has been a valued contact of AIT both previously as NSC official and recently as DPP International Affairs Director, will move to Japan in March to take up a three-year appointment at Hokkaido University. We cannot help but wonder if the talented Lin is abandoning ship as the problems Tsai described weigh heavily on all party faithful. SYOUNG