KAOHSIUNG MAYOR IN THE LIMELIGHT AS SHE RATTLES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001261 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/22/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CH TW SUBJECT: KAOHSIUNG MAYOR IN THE LIMELIGHT AS SHE RATTLES CHINA'S CAGE Classified By: Political Section Chief Rank. Reasons: 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu has suddenly emerged as a star of the beleaguered opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). She won widespread kudos in July for her city's successful hosting of the World Games, a rare international event for diplomatically isolated Taiwan. She subsequently was the talk of Taiwan for defying China by inviting the Dalai Lama to visit and by refusing to cancel the screening of a documentary on Uighur activist Rebiya Kadeer. While Beijing hurled vitriol at Chen and sought to punish her by restricting Chinese travel to Kaohsiung, she has remained immensely popular at home. Now there is talk she could one day be a DPP presidential candidate. Although her recent actions irked Beijing, she appears more willing to deal with China than many others within the opposition. End summary. -------------- RIDING THE WORLD GAMES WAVE ... -------------- ¶2. (SBU) After spending decades as a human-rights activist -- including six years in jail during martial law -- and holding a number of positions in local and central government, Chen narrowly won the Kaohsiung mayoral election in late 2006. Little went well for her in her first year as mayor -- her polling numbers were low as she fought lengthy legal challenges to her disputed victory and suffered a minor stroke. She regained her footing by throwing her energy into hosting the World Games -- a poor cousin to the Olympics that includes events such as artistic roller skating -- and even traveled to Beijing and Shanghai to promote the event. Her government's approval rating reached a sky-high 80 percent on the eve of the Games, which went off without a major hitch in July 2009 and greatly burnished her reputation. -------------- ... AND STAYING POPULAR AT CHINA'S EXPENSE -------------- ¶3. (C) Hardly had the glow of success dimmed when Chen was making headlines again for inviting the Dalai Lama to visit Taiwan in August to console victims of Typhoon Morakot. According to Chen's close adviser, Liu Shyh-fan, the offer was made hastily at the suggestion of the Mayor's friends. (Note: Even central DPP leaders were taken by surprise but acknowledged Chen could essentially do what she wanted given her high popularity and position as the highest-ranking DPP elected official. End Note.) Many analysts saw the invitation as a political move to embarrass President Ma Ying-jeou, who already was facing intense criticism over typhoon relief efforts. Liu acknowledged the mayor assumed Ma would choose to reject the visit so as not to imperil his opening to China, even though such a decision could send his anemic approval ratings even lower. When the President approved, Beijing's anger was directed primarily at Chen and the DPP. Chen also bore the brunt of China's wrath a few weeks later over the scheduled screening at a city-funded film festival of a documentary on Uighur activist Rebiya Kadeer. Chen's decision to move up the screening by several weeks did not mollify Beijing, and in the end she succombed to demands from hardline DPP members to reinstate the screening at the festival as well. ¶4. (C) Beijing's decision to hit back at Chen by restricting China tourist visits to Kaohsiung caused grumbling among the city's hoteliers and travel industry (septel) but did not damage her popularity. Liao Dachi, director and professor at the Institute of Political Science at the National Sun Yat-sen University, said polls continued to show about 70 percent of respondents were satisfied with Chen's performance. "I can't say she's the most powerful, but she's the most popular person in the DPP," Liao said. She said the mayor's invitation to the Dalai Lama in particularly consolidated her base within the opposition party that is wary of China's political motives on Taiwan; even the KMT city chairman said it wasn't a bad move. -------------- -- LOOKING TOWARD NEXT YEAR'S ELECTIONS AND BEYOND -------------- -- ¶5. (C) Chen's popularity puts her in a strong position for next year's mayoral election for an expanded Kaohsiung City that will incorporate Kaohsiung County for a total population of nearly 3 million, slightly larger than Taipei City but about a million less than Taipei County. Many analysts expect her toughest challenge will come from within the party. One TAIPEI 00001261 002 OF 002 possible DPP opponent is Kaohsiung County Magistrate Yang Chiu-Hsing, who retains strong support in rural areas; another is former acting Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chi-mai, whose backers include the DPP city chairman. Chen Chi-mai told PolOffs he had yet to decide whether to run for mayor or for a seat in the Legislative Yuan. Meanwhile, most of the people widely seen as possibly running under the Kuomintang banner do not have the name recognition of Chen or the other likely DPP candidates. Professor Liao, however, believes one KMT heavyweight, Legislative Yuan President Wang Jin-Pyng, might enter the race because of party rules that limit to two terms the tenure of at-large lawmakers like himself. ¶6. (C) Liao and others believe Mayor Chen over the longer term has her eye on a presidential campaign, if not in 2012 when President Ma Ying-jeou is expected to seek reelection than in 2016. Liu, the mayor's adviser, said she didn't think Chen would run for president in 2012. When asked about 2016, she said Chen, who is now 59, would be too old. When, pressed, however, Liu said 2016 was "too far (off) to discuss this issue;" in any event, Liu noted the Mayor is staying fit by enjoying "Dance, Dance Revolution" aerobic workouts. For now, the front-runner to be party standard-bearer is Su Tseng-Chang, the DPP vice presidential candidate in 2008 and a former premier. Among those believed interested in running for president are three other party heavyweights -- two former premiers and a former vice president -- none of whom now hold elective office. ¶7. (C) Even Adviser Liu acknowledged Chen lacked many accomplishments beyond hosting the World Games and irritating China on which she could campaign. This is particularly true in economic development, a critical issue for a city with a relatively high unemployment rate and a harbor that is falling in its global rankings. Possible challenger Chen Chi-mai faulted the Mayor for not aggressively going after investors with tax incentives and other measures to improve the business climate. When asked to name an accomplishment on which the Mayor could campaign for reelection, Professor Liao paused and then noted the expansion of the city's bicycle paths. In terms of larger projects, however, "I don't see very good development." (Note: Liao had a chance to observe Chen close up when she was her student during a semester-long course for executives several years ago. She described Chen as polite, humble and never absent from class, admirable qualities that make for a good student yet are not always found in politicians. Less impressive, said the professor, was the quality of Chen's work, which led Liao to tell PolOff: "She's not that smart." End note.) ¶8. (C) Another criticism often heard is that Chen lacks international experience. When asked if the Mayor would make a good president, Professor Liao said: "No. Her international vission is not good enough." Chen Chi-mai faulted the Mayor for having a muddled approach toward China, at first making a friendly official trip to promote the World Games but then later angering Beijing with her invitation to the Dalai Lama. "The Chinese people aren't stupid," he said. "It's hard for China to accept this inconsistent behavior." Liu, the adviser, denied that the Mayor played a Dalai Lama card to score political points domestically; instead, she said inviting the Tibetan leader was consistent with the DPP's support of democracy and freedom of speech. -------------- COMMENT: HOW FAR CAN CHEN GO? -------------- ¶9. (C) Despite her present popularity, there are reasons to question just how far this could take Mayor Chen: She's not quite a shoo-in for reelection as Mayor and much will change between now and the presidential elections. The one description of Chen that rings true is Liu's insistence that the Mayor is a "very pragmatic person." This appears to aptly describe her attitude toward China: happy to make a friendly trip to the mainland when it benefits her and just as happy to poke the Beijing leadership in the eye when it suits her purposes. Her possible emergence as DPP standard-bearer in years to come therefore may not be as traumatic for cross-Strait relations as all the nasty things Beijing has said about her in recent months would suggest. STANTON