PRESIDENT MA TAKES OVER KUOMINTANG CHAIR IN MOVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001236 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM CH TW SUBJECT: PRESIDENT MA TAKES OVER KUOMINTANG CHAIR IN MOVE THAT SHOULD STRENGTHEN HIS OPENING TO CHINA REF: 08 TAIPEI 683 Classified By: POL Chief Dave Rank for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. President Ma Ying-jeou's accession to Chairman of the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) should give a boost to his efforts at rapprochement with China. Analysts argued Ma was now better positioned to pass legislation in support of his China policy and to further strengthen ties between his party and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Media immediately began speculating on the likelihood of a summit between Ma and Chinese President Hu Jintao in their capacity as ruling party Chairmen, but analysts played down the possibility. Meanwhile, Ma's vow to clean his party of money-politics was met by skepticism, in part because corruption still plagues the party despite similar promises made by Ma during his earlier term as chairman. End summary. -------------- A LIKELY BOOST FOR CROSS-STRAIT TIES -------------- ¶2. (SBU) President Ma became party Chairman at the 18th KMT party congress October 17 after running unopposed for the position in July. Ma had said he decided to run for party leader to fulfill his campaign promises and to strengthen the implementation of national policies (reftel),including expanding ties with China. He told the congress he would keep pushing for exchanges between the KMT and China "to improve mutual trust and cooperation between the two sides." The Chinese Communist Party, which strongly supports Ma's cross-Strait rapprochement, immediately sent a congratulatory message in which it promised to deepen mutual trust and broaden exchanges. ¶3. (C) Analysts suggested a number of ways Ma's new position could strengthen his hand on cross-Strait policy. For example, he would have a stronger role in determining who gets party nominations for the Legislative Yuan and in allocating party resources among candidates, argued KMT lawmaker Hwang Yih-Jiau. This should help Ma exercise control over often wayward KMT lawmakers, who according to Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Chao Chien-Min have yet to approve legislation to expand ties with China in areas such as higher education exchanges. It also could help Ma gain Legislative Yuan ratification of a controversial Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement with China that is a centerpiece of expanded cross-Strait economic ties. ¶4. (C) Chao also argued that ties with mainland China "may be more coherent" with Ma atop both the ruling party and government. He predicted stronger ties between the KMT and the CCP, which are significant because of the absence of formal relations between Taiwan and China. Ma signaled the importance he attaches to party-to-party relations by giving outgoing KMT Chairman Wu Po-hsiung the title of Honorary Chairman and a key role in further expanding ties. He also appointed another Honorary Chairman, Lien Chan, as Taiwan representative to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum summit in Singapore in November. Both Wu and Lien have met with Hu in their capacity as KMT leaders, and there was immediate speculation in Hong Kong and Taiwan media that Ma as party Chairman might eventually meet with the Chinese leader as well. Chao said the Mainland Affairs Council had not discussed such a meeting, but refused to rule out the possibility, perhaps at an international forum. -------------- MA VOWS TO CLEAN UP THE KMT -------------- ¶5. (C) In accepting the party chairmanship, Ma again vowed to divest the party of controversial assets that opposition polticians claimed gave it an unfair electoral advantage and to fight corruption within the KMT. Skeptics noted that Ma had made similar promises when he first was elected chairman in 2005. (Note: Ma resigned in 2007 after being indicted on charges of misuse of special funds as Taipei City mayor. He was later cleared of wrongdoing. End note.) This time, Ma said he would liquidate the party's remaining major asset, the Central Investment Co. worth an estimated NT$20 billion (US$620 million),and use the proceeds for retirement pensions for party workers and to pay off debt, with the remainder going to charity. ¶6. (C) The promise to eradicate KMT vote-buying in December 5 local elections also will be difficult for a party with a long history of corruption. Three KMT candidates elected to the Legislative Yuan last year already have been removed from TAIPEI 00001236 002 OF 002 office on charges of bribery, and allegations of vote-buying in the KMT Central Standing Committee election October 11 further sullied the party's reputation. Still, party members such as Hwang believe Ma is sincere about cleaning up the party, which has fielded candidates with notably clean backgrounds in at least some of the contests in next month's city and county elections. The problem, they acknowledged, was many of the untainted candidates were political novices, creating something of a contradiction between the desire to reform the party and the desire to win elections that Ma will be hard-pressed to resolve. -------------- COMMENT: A FULL PLATE FOR MA -------------- ¶7. (C) In adding KMT chairmanship to his portfolio, President Ma should be in a stronger position to further his goals of expanding ties with China and reforming the KMT. Still, each path remains strewn with obstacles. How far rapprochement with China can go may depend less on Ma than on China's response to his overtures. In particular, people here are sensitive to anything that smacks of China using closer economic ties to advance its political agenda for eventual reunification. For example, many on Taiwan were unnerved by Beijing's restrictions on Chinese tourism to Kaohsiung in response to the city's screening of a documentary on a Uighur activist and the mayor's invitation to the Dalai Lama. As for reforming the KMT, old habits may be hard to break, particularly with the dominance of personality-based local party factions. The unusually large number of KMT politicians who launched independent campaigns after failing to secure party nominations for upcoming local elections suggests Ma will have a tough time imposing discipline on an increasingly rambunctious party. STANTON