TAIWAN READIES FOR TYPHOONS PARMA AND MELOR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001195 SENSITIVE SIPDIS TATE ALSO FOR S/ES-O/CMS, EAP/TC, CA/OCS, BANGKOK FOR USAID/OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON AEMR CASC PREL PGOV SENV XE TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN READIES FOR TYPHOONS PARMA AND MELOR ¶1. SUMMARY: (SBU) Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau (CWB) on October 2 predicted course tracks for typhoons Parma and Melor that would bring potentially torrential rains to northern and eastern areas of Taiwan October 4-8. Lighter rains are expected in central and southern areas, which are still recovering from Typhoon Morakot. Based on CWB forecasts, authorities will set up the interagency Central Emergency Operation Center (CEOC) under Vice Premier Eric Chu's direction. Post-Morakot Reconstruction Deputy Executive Director General Jenn-Chuan Chern says Taiwan is prepared for the possible effects of Parma and Melor, with relief supplies pre-positioned and rescue personnel ready to move quickly to affected areas. AIT has issued a warden message and updated staff on our internal procedures. END SUMMARY. -------------- HEAVY RAINS LIKELY IN NORTH AND EAST -------------- ¶2. (SBU) CWB predictions show Typhoon Parma heading towards Taiwan from the southeast. By 0800 on October 5, the southern tip of Taiwan may be within the potential track area of the typhoon (this track area has a probability of 70 percent; see www.cwb.gov.tw for updated weather reports). By 0800 on October 7, the entire island could be within the 70 percent potential track area of Parma. However, this probable track area for October 7 is quite large, including the Philippines and the coast of mainland China. Typhoon Melor is currently located further from Taiwan than Parma, and shows a predicted track that would keep it east of the island as it veers north towards Japan. Taiwan through October 7 will not be within the 70 percent possible track area of Melor, according to CWB predictions. Whether either storm actually makes landfall in Taiwan will depend on atmospheric pressure changes over the Pacific. Regardless of whether they make landfall, however, when the typhoons are taken in combination with local seasonal monsoon winds, heavy rains are expected in northern and eastern regions of Taiwan October 4-8. Rains in the central and southern areas affected by Morakot are expected to be lighter. -------------- TAIWAN READIES FOR MORE RAIN -------------- ¶3. (SBU) A CWB "sea warning" will require key Taiwan agencies and ministers to stand up the interagency Central Emergency Operations Center under the leadership of Vice Premier Eric Chu, and a "land warning" will require additional agencies to participate. The CEOC was last operational during Typhoon Morakot, which killed over 600 people and caused over USD 300 billion in damage. We understand from local contacts that numerous agencies have already reached out to central authorities to ask if the CEOC will be called into action. CWB continues to monitor both storms, and will be able to gauge the necessity of sea and land warnings over the weekend when the tracks become more clearly defined. ¶4. (SBU) Post-Morakot Reconstruction Deputy Executive Director General Jenn-Chuan Chern told us today that Taiwan was prepared for the possible effects of Parma and Melor, including in southern regions where Morakot reconstruction activities were ongoing. Relief supplies were pre-positioned and rescue personnel were ready to move. Chern noted that the power to activate local military units for rescue missions was recently devolved from the central leadership in Taipei to the county magistrate level, which should improve the response time and effectiveness of these units across the island. In addition, these units are now stationed in strategic areas around the island and are expected to be able to begin rescue and relief operations within 10 minutes of receiving an order to act. Chern closed his generally TAIPEI 00001195 002 OF 002 positive comments on Taiwan's preparedness for Parma and Melor by announcing to ESTHoff, "God help us." Meanwhile, Premier Wu Den-yi said yesterday the authorities would enforce mandatory evacuations from areas threatened by the typhoons if deemed necessary, and added the CWB should provide rainfall forecasts in addition to data on wind speed in order to make vulnerability assessments easier, as well as issue public statements on weather conditions in laymen's terms. ¶5. (SBU) AIT today issued a warden message on Parma and Melor, as well as reminding staff of our own warden internal procedures and typhoon-related management instructions. STANTON