FORMER VP ANNETTE LU CALLS FOR CAUTIOUS TIES WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001190 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KJUS KCRM TW CH SUBJECT: FORMER VP ANNETTE LU CALLS FOR CAUTIOUS TIES WITH CHINA REF: A. TAIPEI 1170 ¶B. TAIPEI 1161 Classified By: AIT Director Bill Stanton for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: During an October 1 introductory meeting with the Director, former Vice President Annette Lu said Taiwan should engage China but do so cautiously and on clear terms. She added that any important agreements President Ma Ying-jeou reached with Beijing should be subject to legislative approval. Although Lu dismissed the idea of returning to Taiwan politics, many AIT contacts have told us she could very well run for office again, perhaps even for President. End summary. DPP Still Climbing Uphill Battle -------------- ¶2. (C) In her introductory meeting with the Director, former Vice President Annette Lu gave a decidedly short assessment of her Democratic Progressive Party (DPP),claiming she tried to keep her distance now that she was running a weekly newspaper. She acknowledged that the DPP's victory in a recent legislative by-election (ref A) was inspiring but added that she was not optimistic about the party's chances to score many wins in the December 5 city and county magistrate races. (Note: The DPP holds 3 of the 17 seats up for grabs. End note.) ¶3. (C) Asked about DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen's performance, Lu commented that Tsai had lost credibility in the eyes of some DPP supporters because she had never run for public office. One way Tsai could help the party would be to adjust its China policy. Lu said she had suggested the DPP take a more progressive approach on mainland affairs, but the party appeared uninterested in heeding her advice. Lu said she would likely attend the DPP's annual conference on October 19 as an advisor, but she did not appear interested or excited about her participation. KMT Facing Its Own Challenges -------------- ¶4. (C) The ruling Kuomintang (KMT) was ridden with its own problems and was rife with tension, Lu said. For example, she was surprised at the degree of friction between Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin and President Ma Ying-jeou, who according to Lu had many other detractors within the party. One of Ma's problems was that he had grown up within a community of people who came to Taiwan from mainland China with Chiang Kai-shek and therefore did not understand the people who had settled on the island much earlier. Further, she said, Ma had never made serious efforts to get to know the Taiwanese, who account for a majority of the island's population. Lu Says Go Slow on Cross-Strait Engagement -------------- ¶5. (C) Lu further criticized Ma by calling him a "democratic dictator" for making decisions on his own and for moving too fast on deepening cross-Strait ties without engaging in necessary consultations. All agreements Taiwan made with China should be subject to legislative approval, Lu maintained. Ma was "dancing the tango" with China and was seeking to achieve a hat trick by holding three conferences to ink three agreements within three years: the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement, military confidence-building measures, and a peace pact. ¶6. (C) While Lu disagreed with Ma's approach, she acknowledged that Taiwan's engagement with China was necessary and could be productive. Lu was optimistic Taiwan and China could work together. She argued that a DPP-proposed 2004 referendum would have paved the way for peaceful negotiations had the KMT and moderate Greens -- those less strident on the pro-independence spectrum -- not boycotted the vote. (Note: The failed referendum asked whether the Taiwan Government should negotiate with China to establish a "peace and stability" framework for cross-Strait interactions. End note.) Lu acknowledged that holding another referendum would not be the best way to move forward; instead, she suggested convening a conference involving interested parties on both sides of the Strait. For Lu, stability in the Strait should not be based on Taiwan surrendering to China, and any compromises had to be made under clear terms. TAIPEI 00001190 002 OF 002 Watch the Strait Closely, Ink Extradition Quickly -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Despite having a more open outlook on Taiwan-China relations than hardcore DPP supporters, Lu hoped the United States would pay more attention to Ma's efforts to deepen cross-Strait ties. She worried Ma might take greater steps to forge closer ties that could jeopardize Taiwan's status and thus stability in the region. On a separate matter, Lu noted that an extradition treaty with the United States would help maintain justice in Taiwan. She pointed out that efforts to initiate such an agreement actually began under the DPP administration. Supports Fair Judicial Treatment for Chen Shui-bian -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Commenting on the recent guilty verdict in the corruption trial of former President Chen Shui-bian, Lu acknowledged he had probably engaged in some wrongdoing. Guilty or not, she said, her former running mate deserved fair judicial treatment, adding that his life sentence was too harsh. Lu argued that Chen's recent comments that Taiwan should be occupied by the U.S. military (ref B) might be part of an effort to get him released from detention. (Note: Some Taiwan watchers have speculated Chen may be trying to demonstrate insanity. Except for a short break, Chen has been in detention since November 2008. End Note.) What Does the Future Hold for Lu? -------------- ¶9. (C) Lu said she was primarily interested in running the "Formosa Weekly" newspaper she had launched in May and maintained she was not keen on running again for office. She argued she would reject pleas from supporters to stand for election. She already had the chance to share her views by writing articles in her newspaper, she explained. (Comment: Many of our contacts nonetheless believe Lu is indeed interested in returning to politics, perhaps to make a run at the presidency, and argue that she started her media project in part to stay in the public eye. End comment.) STANTON