TAIWAN OPPOSITION SCORES DOUBLE VICTORY IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001170 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/28/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TW SUBJECT: TAIWAN OPPOSITION SCORES DOUBLE VICTORY IN BY-ELECTION, REFERENDUM REF: A. TAIPEI 1145 ¶B. TAIPEI 1161 Classified By: AIT Acting Deputy Director Dave Rank for reasons 1.4 (b/ d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Big wins by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) in a September 26 legislative by-election and a separate referendum on a (government-backed) plan to allow casino resorts on one of Taiwan's offshore islands gave the DPP a much-needed morale boost and will energize supporters ahead of the December 5 local elections. The ruling KMT, meanwhile, took the losses as a warning and will likely step up efforts to discourage multiple candidates from running against each other and splitting the party vote in the December races. End summary. One By-election Win, Many Gains for the DPP... -------------- - ¶2. (C) DPP candidate Liu Chien-kuo claimed a seat in Taiwan's Legislative Yuan (LY) by winning a landslide victory in a September 26 by-election in rural Yunlin County. Liu garnered 74,272 votes, against KMT candidate Chang Ken-hui's 29,278 and independent candidate Chang Hui-yuan's 22,747 to earn the seat vacated by Chang Hui-yuan's son, Chang Sho-wen. The younger Chang, a KMT party member like his father, was forced to step down after a court found his father guilty of vote-buying on his son's behalf. (Note: In the wake of his Chang Sho-wen's legally-mandated removal, the KMT nominated political novice Chang Ken-hui to reinforce the party's adherence to clean campaigns. Unwilling to see his family excluded from local politics which they have dominated over the years, Chang Hui-yuan resigned from the KMT to run as an independent. See ref a. End note.) Voter turnout was 45 percent, standard for Taiwan by-elections. ¶3. (U) The DPP was exultant over Liu's victory. DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen claimed the win demonstrated the public's determination to end vote-buying practices. The election outcome was also a no-confidence vote against President Ma Ying-jeou's administration, Tsai maintained. ¶4. (C) Prior to the Yunlin victory, DPP contacts often complained that the party lacked the numbers to do anything in the LY. With Liu's victory, the DPP now has 28 of 113 seats in the LY and a much stronger chance of participating meaningfully in Taiwan's legislative process. LY rules require that at least one-quarter of legislators support a motion to initiate a recall of the President or propose constitutional amendments. Now only one vote shy of the 29 vote needed to do so, DPP legislators need convince just one KMT, Taiwan Solidarity Union or independent legislator to join them. Likewise, the DPP now needs just two votes to attain the required 30 to submit draft legislation. The DPP will have another shot at increasing its LY presence when a yet-unscheduled by-election for Premier Wu Den-yih's legislative seat representing Nantou County is held. ¶5. (SBU) The Yunlin win also serves as a morale boost for a DPP still beleaguered by 2008 presidential and legislative electoral setbacks and by former President Chen Shui-bian's ongoing corruption trial (see ref b). In Yunlin, the victory paves the way for County Magistrate and DPP member Su Chih-fen's re-election in December. The KMT candidate, Chang Li-shan (sister of by-election independent candidate Chang Hui-yuan and aunt of the failed KMT candidate Chang Sho-wen) pulled out of the race on September 28, citing her party's poor performance in the by-election. The DPP's Yunlin win also could reinvigorate and rally supporters throughout Taiwan for December local elections. The DPP may have a shot at taking more positions away from the KMT, particularly in Hualien, Taitung, and Hsinchu, where KMT candidates may end up facing off against fellow interested party members who are ignoring the KMT's pleas that they pull out of the race and are continuing their campaigns. (Note: The DPP currently holds 3 of the 17 county magistrate positions up for grabs on December 5. End note.) ...Warning for KMT -------------- ¶6. (C) For the KMT, the Yunlin defeat is prompting the party to take stock. KMT Chairman Wu Poh-hsiung acknowledged the defeat was a warning but reaffirmed the party's efforts to reform and uphold clean politics. The party would continue TAIPEI 00001170 002 OF 002 to put forward candidates with clean images, such as political novice Chang Ken-hui, maintained Wu. Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin claimed the result reflected voter dissatisfaction with the KMT government's performance. Premier Wu Den-yih and others blamed the loss on a party split and called for greater party unity ahead of the December elections. Prior to the election, KMT officials in Yunlin expressed concern to PolOffs about the possibility of a split KMT vote. However, the results indicated that Liu would have won fair and square even if the Blue vote had been united behind just one candidate: Liu earned 74,272 votes, whereas the KMT and independent candidates' votes combined only totaled 52,025. Defeat of KMT-backed Plan In Referendum Is Icing on DPP Cake -------------- -------------- ¶7. (U) A lesser blow to the ruling party was the September 26 rejection by referendum of a LY-approved (and KMT-backed) plan to allow casino resorts on Penghu island (see septel). Almost 57 percent of the Penghu residents who participated voted against the plan in a referendum among Penghu registered voters. Although voter turnout was only 45 percent, the result is binding. While some tourism operators blamed the KMT government for not doing enough to promote the casino idea, others, including Penghu County Magistrate Wang Chien-fa (KMT) endorsed the decision and pledged to explore other ways to develop island tourism. DPP Chair Tsai and others who were against the plan, including Taiwan's Green Party (environment-friendly) and anti-gambling groups, lauded the result. Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) The by-election and referendum outcomes are a major morale boost for the DPP, whose Chair has told AIT that the key to the party's political comeback is making steady gains in local and national elections. The party hopes a good showing in the December elections will build momentum for 2010, when five of Taiwan's largest cities and counties (Taipei, Taipei County, Kaohsiung, Tainan, and Taichung) elect their leaders. These elections will in turn, be a springboard for legislative and presidential elections in ¶2012. The challenge for the DPP now is to remain focused on the December elections and stave off other pressures, including ardent Chen supporters who maintain the party needs to hold street protests in support of the former President. STANTON