NEW TAIWAN PREMIER SAYS PRESIDENT MA REGAINING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001157 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/EX, OBO E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL ABLD AMED CH TW SUBJECT: NEW TAIWAN PREMIER SAYS PRESIDENT MA REGAINING POPULARITY, OFFERS ASSISTANCE ON NEW OFFICE COMPOUND Classified By: The Director for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Newly appointed Premier Wu Den-yih told the Director on September 23 that President Ma Ying-jeou was regaining the public's support after it fell precipitously in the immediate aftermath of Typhoon Morakot. On cross-Strait ties, Wu said he didn't foresee long-term harm from the Dalai Lama's visit, but he refused to say what Taiwan would do if Uighur activist and Beijing bugaboo Rebiya Kadeer sought to accept an invitation to travel to Taiwan. Finally, the Premier agreed to the Director's request to name an Executive Yuan point of contact who could help resolve any bureaucratic issues arising from the New Office Compound project. Wu was careful in his answers to the Director's questions, but he displayed the political savvy for which Ma reportedly chose him to be Premier. End summary. -------------- - MA BENEFITS AS TYPHOON RECONSTRUCTION PROCEEDS -------------- - ¶2. (C) Premier Wu told Director Stanton at their introductory meeting on September 23 that President Ma's popularity had bounced back to near 50 percent after dropping below 20 percent over dissatisfaction with typhoon relief efforts in August. (Note: Wu did not cite a specific poll. Most surveys seen by AIT indicated a rebound but not as great as Wu stated. End note.) The Premier acknowledged the government had learned a bitter lesson for not being as prepared as necessary for a disaster the scope of Typhoon Morakot, but he added that much progress had been made in reconstruction and resettling victims. In a trip to the worst hit area three days ago, Wu said President Ma had received applause and bows of respect from victims who weeks earlier had pointedly criticized him for a perceived tardy government response. -------------- H1N1 APPEARS UNDER CONTROL -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Wu said H1N1 flu was "generally under control." The first wave of cases appeared to have peaked in mid-September. Fewer than 500 people had been hospitalized with the flu and 17 had died, including some who had complications from chronic diseases such as pneumonia and heart problems. Wu said Taiwan had ordered 15 million doses of flu vaccine from foreign and domestic companies that would be available in October and November. -------------- CROSS-STRAIT PROSPECTS GOOD DESPITE HICCUPS -------------- ¶4. (C) On cross-Strait ties, the Premier discounted the possibility of long-term damage from the Dalai Lama visit to Taiwan. Wu said he had urged President Ma to approve the visit, despite China's vehement opposition, to underscore Ma's position as a head of state and to acknowledge the typhoon victims' needs for spiritual succor. He added that resolving the recent controversy over a Kaohsiung film festival's plans to screen a documentary on Uighur activist Rebiya Kadeer was simpler than handling the Dalai Lama visit. Wu noted that Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu had advanced the screening from October to this week after local hoteliers complained Chinese tour groups were cancelling thousands of room reservations, in part because of Beijing's fury over the documentary. When asked how Taiwan would respond should Kadeer try to visit Taiwan at the invitation of her supporters, Wu said he could not respond to a hypothetical question. (Note: A Ministry of Foreign Affairs source told us the day before that Taiwan had decided Kadeer would not be allowed to visit. See septel. End note.) ¶5. (C) Wu underscored Taiwan's desire for advanced U.S. weapons to defend itself, but he did not name any specific system. The Director said he would meet Taiwan's new Minister of Defense just prior to traveling to Hawaii next month for the EAP Chiefs of Mission Conference, when possible arms sales would be among the issues he would discuss with colleagues. -------------- OFFER OF HELP ON NEW OFFICE COMPOUND -------------- ¶6. (C) The Director noted the importance of the New Office TAIPEI 00001157 002 OF 002 Compound (NOC) project and asked the Premier to assign someone from his office who could be a point of contact in case AIT needed assistance with zoning, permits or other bureaucratic matters. Wu said he would ask Executive Yuan Secretary General Lin Join-sane to be our point of contact. After the meeting, Harry Tseng, Director General of the Department of North American Affairs at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told PolOff that Lin could call a meeting to discuss the NOC with the various Taiwan agencies whose support was needed for its completion. (Note: AIT already has followed up with MOFA to encourage such a gathering. End note.) -------------- --- COMMENT: SAVVY, BUT NOT PARTICULARLY FORTHCOMING -------------- --- ¶7. (C) Only two weeks into his new position, Wu was exceedingly careful about what he said to the Director. The Premier seemed most comfortable talking about typhoon reconstruction, showing off his impressive knowledge about local politics and issues. Similarly, he appeared at ease in discussing the local political calculations behind allowing the Dalai Lama's visit, but was careful to toe official policy pronouncements when talking more broadly about cross-Strait ties. He steered clear of answering questions on particularly sensitive issues, such as whether the cancellation of visits to Kaohsiung by Chinese tourists was a case of Beijing using its economic leverage to force policy decisions in Taiwan, which also showcased his political savvy. End comment. STANTON