SEPTEMBER 26 BY-ELECTION GIVES TAIWAN OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001145 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TW SUBJECT: SEPTEMBER 26 BY-ELECTION GIVES TAIWAN OPPOSITION CHANCE TO PICK UP LEGISLATIVE SEAT Classified By: Acting Deputy Director Dave Rank for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has a strong chance to capture a Legislative Yuan seat in a closely watched by-election this week because of a local split in the ruling Kuomintang (KMT). A victory for the struggling opposition could provide momentum going into island-wide local elections in December and bolster its weak hand in the legislature. Local officials from both parties agreed the race would not be a referendum on President Ma Ying-jeou, whose public support dropped sharply amid criticism he mishandled typhoon relief. KMT infighting in Yunlin also may foreshadow political difficulty ahead for Ma once he takes up the party Chairmanship next month. By-Election Produces Odd Slate of Candidates -------------- ¶2. (C) AIT poloffs visited Yunlin, a largely agrarian county half-way down the western coastal plain of Taiwan, September 16-17 for a taste of Taiwan politics at its most rough-and-tumble. Yunlin is noted for coffee, soy sauce, a grapefruit-like fruit, and electoral politics in which vote buying is a way of life. A by-election will be held September 26 to replace KMT incumbent Chang Sho-wen, whose 2008 victory was nullified when a court found his father guilty of vote buying on his behalf. The DPP candidate in the by-election is County Councilor Liu Chien-kuo, who narrowly lost to Chang last year. The KMT candidate is Chang Ken-hui, a Yunlin Technology University professor who is a political novice chosen for his clean reputation. Running as an independent is Chang Hui-yuan, the incumbent's father who is a powerful local politician in his own right as President of the Yunlin Irrigation Association. The KMT refused to nominate the elder Chang, who is appealing his vote-buying conviction. What's at Stake -------------- ¶3. (C) Local journalists and politicians said the possible split of KMT supporters between the two Chang's created a golden opportunity for the DPP candidate to pull out a victory. DPP Deputy Secretary-General Hong Yao-fu said a by-election win would help build confidence and enthusiasm among party supporters nationwide in the run-up to December local elections in which the DPP holds only three of 17 county magistracies. That's why, he said, headquarters sent him and about eight other people to Yunlin to work on the campaign. Additionally, a DPP victory would give the party 28 seats in the Legislative Yuan, two shy of the minimum needed to submit draft legislation with another by-election expected in the next few months. ¶4. (C) The Yunlin election will be the first since President Ma Ying-jeou's popularity tumbled because of the perception his administration bungled Typhoon Morakot relief. (Note: Although Yunlin was not among the hardest hit areas, estimates of agricultural losses in the county were NT 800 million, or almost US $24 million. End note.) KMT candidate Chang acknowledged to PolOff he had not asked Ma to campaign on his behalf. "If he came down, it may not necessarily be good for me," he said. Other KMT officials said it was more appropriate for Party Chairman Wu Po-hsiung to campaign for Chang, and indeed he has along with KMT Secretary-General Chan Chun-po and newly-appointed Premier Wu Den-yih. In any event, local politicians said the by-election would not be a referendum on Ma; instead, it would hinge on the candidates themselves and the support they received from local political big-wigs. The Candidates: A 'Gangster,' a "Puppet," and a Convict -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) DPP candidate Liu's strength was his decade-long experience in local elective office, most recently as county councilor. Even KMT officials acknowledged he had been effective serving his constituents. Still, his opponents disparagingly called him "the gangster," a reference to his many brushes with the law on allegations ranging from gambling, weapons violations, assaults, and "impeding the freedom of others." Rail-thin and with a wispy goatee, Liu acknowledged to PolOff he had come from a broken family and hadn't always been an angel. "Just because I was brought in for questioning doesn't mean I was guilty," he said. On September 17, Liu appeared with DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen at a TAIPEI 00001145 002 OF 003 news conference to refute claims he was a gangster, which just the day before were amplified in a half-page newspaper advertisement paid for by independent opponent Chang Hui-yuan's campaign. ¶6. (C) Local analysts said KMT candidate Chang Ken-hui fit President Ma Ying-jeou's preference for candidates untainted by corruption, and they said he should do well among better-educated voters. In an interview with PolOff, Chang in addition to promoting his clean reputation said he was best able to promote development to improve the anemic local economy. But a slogan on the wall of DPP campaign headquarters derisively dismissed Chang Ken-hui as a "puppet" of local KMT godfather Chang Jung-wei, a former County Magistrate whose own corruption case had yet to be finally adjudicated. Meanwhile, KMT officials were irate over Chang Hui-yuan's rogue campaign, which they acknowledged would likly harm their candidate's prospects. Chang Hui-yuan's son, the disqualified incumbent, said his father decided to contest the election in part because he was angered the 2008 vote was nullified while his own vote-buying case remained on appeal. He was counting on support for his campaign from the Yunlin Irrigation Assocation he headed and from farmers with whom he had worked with over his many decades in water development. The Wild Cards: The Godfather, Vote Buying, Turnout -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Most local analysts were reluctant to predict the by-election outcome because of the particularly Byzantine nature of Yunlin politics. Some argued the race would be primarily a test of local KMT faction leader Chang Jung-wei's political clout. Indeed, several sources told PolOff they believed Chang Jung-wei wanted to squash Chang Hui-yuan to take control of the Yunlin Irrigation Association, which they said would boost his position in local and national politics. (Note: Chang Sho-wen, the disqualified incumbent, darkly hinted to PolOff that the godfather was behind the brief kidnapping of his secretary and threatening phone calls to his father's campaign. PolOff saw police officers in bullet-proof vests stationed outside Chang Hui-yuan's campaign headquarters, and Chang Sho-wen himself rumbled around town in a bullet-proof vehicle. End note.) A victory for the KMT candidate also would help the godfather's sister in her tough December race for Yunlin Magistrate against a tough DPP incumbent. ¶8. (C) Another likely factor in the outcome will be to what degree the candidates and their supporters try to buy votes, which local journalists said was a widespread practice, particularly in the county's relatively poor rural areas. Although all three campaigns insisted they would not buy votes, all were quick to accuse their opponents of doing so. James Yeh, the Yunlin correspondent for The Central News Agency, believed all campaigns would be involved, and based on previous elections he predicted that perhaps one-quarter of votes could be bought, typically for 500 to 1,000 NT dollars (about 15-30 U.S. dollars). However, the Yunlin correspondent for the United Daily News thought the practice would not be as common as in the past and would not itself decide the race. On September 21, newspapers reported local authorities arrested 10 supporters of KMT candidate Chang Ken-hui on suspicion of vote buying, including a ward chief who first acknowledged taking part but then claimed it was a scheme concocted by the campaign of independent candidate Chang Hui-yuan. ¶9. (C) In any event, vote-buying could have an effect on turnout, which most people said would be the deciding factor. The consensus was that a relatively low turnout of about 40 percent, which is typical for a by-election, would be good for Liu because DPP supporters were the most committed, and a higher turnout would benefit KMT candidate Chang. Ten days before the election, all the candidates were pounding the pavement in search of votes. PolOff caught up with Liu as he raced through Dounan market: wearing dark Nikes, jeans and a green campaign sash, the DPP candidate stopped shoppers, hawkers and scooter-drivers, spending a few seconds with each to shake hands, bow and hand out small packets of facial tissues that bore his photo and name. Later that day, a deeply tanned KMT candidate Chang told PolOff he had walked more than 20 kilometers daily for the past three weeks and lost about 13 pounds in his quest to meet as many voters as possible. TAIPEI 00001145 003 OF 003 Comment: Lose-Lose for Ma? -------------- 10, (C) Even though by-elections often reflect little more than local issues and personalities, the importance of their results is almost always magnified because of the tendency to interpret them as indicators of broad trends. The race therefore has important implications for President Ma. First, while a KMT victory might not boost Ma much politically -- after all, he had not campaigned for the party candidate through September 21 -- a loss might harm him if the media portrayed the vote as a referendum on his government's latest missteps. Second, a DPP victory could give the opposition badly needed momentum going into local elections in December, when Ma as the new KMT chairman would likely take the political blame for any unexpected party losses. Finally, Chang Hui-yuan's decision to leave the KMT and run a campaign against the party candidate must be seen as a blow to Ma. The president's candidate for Hualien County Magistrate already lost in a KMT primary earlier in September and a KMT legislator whom Ma dislikes was mulling a possible campaign for that post. While still early days, these developments suggest Ma could have a difficult time forcing his will on a fractious party even after he takes up its chairmanship in October. STANTON