OPPOSITION LEADER: DPP SUPPORT WILL GROW AS RULING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001106 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2019 TAGS: PGOV PREL TW SUBJECT: OPPOSITION LEADER: DPP SUPPORT WILL GROW AS RULING PARTY'S DECLINES REF: TAIPEI 1092 Classified By: The Director for reasons 1.4 (b/d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Opposition Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chair Tsai Ing-wen told the Director on September 10 she anticipated no policy shifts under President Ma Ying-jeou's new Cabinet and predicted the new Premier would have a tough time managing the executive branch. The ruling Kuomintang's popularity was on a sustained downward trajectory, Tsai argued, and would not return to the heights it had reached last year when it won the legislative and presidential elections. Meanwhile, the DPP was experiencing an upward swing, Tsai said, and the contrasting fortunes of the two major parties could help balance Taiwan politics in the longer term. The negative impact of former President Chen Shui-bian's corruption case on the DPP should diminish over time, she predicted. End summary. New Cabinet to Toe Ma's Line -------------- ¶2. (C) President Ma's new Cabinet was unlikely to implement major policy shifts, DPP Chair Tsai Ing-wen told the Director during their September 10 introductory meeting. Both new Premier Wu Den-yih and Vice Premier Eric Chu had never led a Cabinet ministry, Tsai noted, which meant they did not have the experience necessary to manage Taiwan's vast and complex central Government. (Note: The outgoing Premier, Liu Chao-shiuan, had served as Vice Premier and as Minister of Transportation and Communication before leading the Cabinet. End note.) Although Wu had more political experience than Liu, Tsai said, he had "zero accomplishments" during his nine years as Kaohsiung Mayor and was not versed in important topics such as micro-economics. Vice Premier Eric Chu, on the other hand, was a "bit better" and had proven to be very smart and adept at public relations but had yet to be tested on the national level. KMT Standing on Downward Trend, DPP Moving Up -------------- ¶3. (C) Tsai acknowledged that Ma's public approval ratings had improved with the Cabinet reshuffle, but she predicted support for him and the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) would continue its general downward trend. Citing long-term polling data, Tsai noted the KMT's standing was at its lowest point in three years, while the DPP was at its highest. The KMT, Tsai argued, was unlikely to return to the high approval ratings it had reached during a honeymoon period after winning legislative and presidential elections in the first half of 2008. These trends could make Taiwan politics more balanced, she suggested. (Note: In the independent Global Views Survey Research Center's monthly poll for August, confidence and trust in the KMT dropped to 39.9 percent while the DPP reached its highest point of 39.5 percent. The monthly ratings indeed indicate a downward trend for the KMT and an upward trend for the DPP.) ¶4. (C) Now, Tsai said, the DPP had to maintain this momentum and refrain from making any major mistakes. It had not only to regain confidence among its supporters but also the general public. The key was to demonstrate the DPP could be a "reliable and responsible" party, and Tsai claimed it was in fact doing a better job. The real test would come in future elections. Tsai said the DPP's chances of winning were best in larger jurisdictions such as the new special municipalities of Taipei City, Taipei County, Kaohsiung, Tainan, and Taichung -- all of which would hold elections next year -- and in the 2012 presidential election. The challenge for the DPP, particularly in smaller jurisdictions, was that the electoral system favored candidates with a larger grass-roots network. The experienced and much older KMT had a strong network, she said, whereas the much younger DPP was still developing its own. TAIPEI 00001106 002 OF 002 Chen Shui-bian Impact Should Fade -------------- ¶5. (C) Asked how the DPP planned to react to the September 11 verdict in the corruption cases of former President Chen Shui-bian, Tsai initially joked that she "would be on vacation somewhere," then added in a serious vein that his continued detention was "ridiculous." Chen's ongoing detention was, she asserted, politically calculated. (Note: Chen has been in detention since November 2008, with the exception of a small break. End note.) The KMT viewed Chen as a "troublemaker" who would only cause problems if released. Tsai acknowledged Chen's detention also was good for the DPP but explained the party's stance to defend Chen's judicial rights was worth the risks because people's overall rights had to be protected. (Note: Our DPP contacts have told us Chen would travel throughout Taiwan to rally his supporters and shore up his political power base if released from detention. End note.) ¶6. (C) Chen's corruption cases would continue to hurt the DPP but would have diminishing effects over time, Tsai said. She added that the party "just needs to bear with it." Some of the allegations against Chen, such as failing to report campaign funds, were common practice among politicians of all stripes including KMT leaders, Tsai argued. The problem, she observed, was that the public's tolerance for such practices had waned as Taiwan's democracy matured. ECFA Needs Preconditions -------------- ¶7. (C) The DPP did not oppose improved trade and economic relations with China, Tsai said, but efforts to deepen ties should only be made with proper safeguards. The administration was "in a rush" to realize President Ma's proposed Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China and was "naive" to believe the PRC would agree without imposing conditions. ECFA would sit well with the DPP if China agreed not to prevent Taiwan from negotiating similar arrangements (i.e., free-trade agreements) with other countries and if the KMT administration proceeded at a "careful and cautious speed" to allow the Taiwan economy to adjust to changes brought on by the agreement. The DPP was particularly concerned about protecting the agricultural and industrial sectors in Taiwan's southern areas, the party's stronghold. Continued U.S. Support -------------- ¶8. (C) Asked what the DPP would like to see from the United States, Tsai said she hoped the U.S. would continue to support Taiwan's democracy. She agreed with the Director that a free-trade agreement with the U.S. in the short run was unlikely but that investment and tax agreements would help forge closer economic ties. STANTON