LY SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG ON TYPHOON MORAKOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 TAIPEI 001103 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2019 TAGS: EINV PGOV PREL TW CH SENV UN SUBJECT: LY SPEAKER WANG JIN-PYNG ON TYPHOON MORAKOT POLITICAL FALLOUT, LEGISLATIVE PRIORITIES, AND INTERNATIONAL SPACE REF: TAIPEI 1093 Classified By: AIT Director William A. Stanton, for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary. Cross-Strait relations would not suffer long-term or significant damage because of the Dalai Lama's visit to Taiwan, Legislative Yuan (LY) Speaker Wang Jin-pyng told the Director in a September 4 introductory meeting. Wang said the invitation to the Tibetan spiritual leader issued by local officials of the opposition Democratic Progressive Party had revealed a lack of coordination with their party's central office. While the sometimes chaotic response to Typhoon Morakot had also demonstrated the need to improve communications between central and local authorities, Wang said, public dissatisfaction with the Government's response would not necessarily translate into opposition gains in December's local elections. Political Detritus from Typhoon Morakot -------------- ¶2. (C) Both local and central governments should bear responsibility for the insufficient cooperation that marked Typhoon Morakot relief efforts, LY Speaker Wang Jin-pyng told Director Stanton in a September 4 introductory meeting. Public finger-pointing between local and central officials gave the public a bad impression of the Government's overall ability to carry out effective relief and reconstruction operations, Wang said. Popular support for top government leaders subsequently tumbled. (Note: Although President Ma Ying-jeou's approval rating dipped below 20 percent, it rebounded after the announcement of a broad Cabinet reshuffle in which the Premier and several leading ministers resigned. Outgoing Premier Liu Chao-shiuan's approval rating collapsed to near single digits because of dissatisfaction over relief efforts. End note.) Dalai Lama Visit No Lasting Effect on Cross-Strait... -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) When asked whether the Dalai Lama's visit had harmed cross-Strait relations, Wang replied there was damage done to the "skin, but not the bones." While Wang believed that Beijing viewed the visit as a collusion between independence forces in Taiwan and Tibet, the Dalai Lama had kept his pledge to limit himself to non-political humanitarian activities. As a result, Wang noted, Beijing had expressed its displeasure only through the largely symbolic suspension of a few exchanges and ceremonies. The signing of cross-Strait agreements and their execution would proceed as expected, the Speaker concluded. ...Domestic Political Bomb Defused -------------- ¶4. (C) Wang acknowledged that the invitation proferred to the Dalai Lama by opposition officials had "dropped a political bomb" on Taiwan. President Ma nonetheless acquitted himself well, Wang argued. He effectively walked a fine line by positively responding to popular support for the Tibetan spiritual leader while assuaging China's irritation by keeping the visit low-key. ¶5. (C) The invitation to the Dalai Lama had clearly also underscored the lack of communication between DPP headquarters and local party officials, according to Wang. He claimed that DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen knew nothing about the invitation from Kaohsiung Mayor Chen Chu and other local DPP politicians until three hours before its announcement, indicating her problems in maintaining party discipline and cohesion. The Dalai Lama's popularity made it politically impossible for Tsai to act against the renegade party members, Wang argued, just as it made it difficult for Ma to refuse to allow the visit given his low approval ratings in public opinion polls after the typhoon. TAIPEI 00001103 002 OF 002 Ma's Popularity Not an Indicator of Election Results -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) The outcome of year-end local elections would not depend on President Ma's popularity, Wang predicted. Ma had clearly suffered in the polls because of his tepid response to Typhoon Morakot and, therefore, his usefulness to the election campaigns of many local KMT candidates appeared limited, Wang said. In any event, Wang believed year-end elections would turn on the effectiveness of the candidates themselves, as well as on local issues. While Kuomintang (KMT) policies still enjoyed support, multiple candidates from the ruling party in magistrate races in Hualien, Taidong, and Hsinchu counties could open the door to opposition wins. International Space -------------- ¶7. (C) The Speaker explained that Taiwan sought to join the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change not only to benefit from participation but also to contribute as a member of the international community to managing global climate change. Wang expressed hope that the U.S. would therefore pro-actively support Taiwan's efforts and could persuade China not to oppose Taiwan's participation. The Director said the U.S. welcomed Taiwan's meaningful participation in such organizations and eagerly awaited further information on Taiwan's specific plans (reftel). Legislative Priorities -------------- ¶8. (C) Wang said the upcoming session of the Legislative Yuan this month would focus on budgetary issues, particularly important given typhoon relief and reconstruction operations. In addition, the legislature would try to prioritize regulations governing reorganization of the Executive branch and the reduction of CO2 emissions, issues on which the ruling and opposition parties had the greatest chance of reaching agreement. STANTON