PRESIDENT MA STRUGGLES TO RECOVER POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TAIPEI 001042

SIPDIS

STATE ALSO FOR S/EC-O/CMS, AND EAP/TC, BANGKOK FOR
USAID/OFDA REGIONAL ADVISOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2019
TAGS: PREL PINR AEMR PGOV XE TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT MA STRUGGLES TO RECOVER POLITICAL
FOOTING AFTER TYPHOON DEBACLE

REF: A. TAIPEI 996

B. TAIPEI 1004

C. TAIPEI 1005

D. TAIPEI 1011

Classified By: Acting Director Robert Wang for reasons 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: President Ma Ying-jeou is working full time
to regain his political footing after widespread criticism he
reacted far too slowly to Typhoon Morakot. With opinion polls
showing a precipitous decline in his popularity, Ma went to
the worst-hit villages to console victims, apologize for his
administration's tardy response and promise speedy
reconstruction. He also announced his intent to reshuffle his
Cabinet to get rid of ministers who bungled the typhoon
response. Local elections in December will be a key test of
how he tackles reconstruction, and growing public fears about
the swine flu outbreak. Taiwan analysts expect Beijing will
want to help shore up Ma, even if only by offering
reconstruction assistance and postponing more sensitive
cross-Strait initiatives until Ma's image improves. End
Summary.

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MA EMPLOYS FULL-COURT DAMAGE CONTROL
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2.(SBU) Ma has paid a steep political price for his
government's perceived failure to respond aggressively to the
August 8 typhoon and for taking too long to visit the
worst-hit villages that were buried by mudslides. His
approval rating tumbled into the teens, and newspapers
reported some ruling party candidates in upcoming local
elections quietly removed from their campaigns any photos of
them posing with the president. When Ma finally toured the
hardest-hit villages on August 19, television news repeatedly
ran clips of the grim-faced president bowing low and long
before irate villagers in abject apology, and acknowledging
he arrived late. At times he appeared awkward and stiff as he
consoled griefing victims with hugs and, in one case, offered
his handkerchief to an elderly woman gushing tears.


3. (C) As part of a multi-pronged damage control program, Ma
promised speedy reconstruction to the typhoon victims and a
Cabinet reshuffle to get rid of ministers who botched the
disaster relief. Political analysts expect perhaps a
half-dozen top officials will get the ax. Resignations
tendered by Defense Minister Chen Chao-min, Deputy Foreign
Minister Andrew Hsia and Executive Yuan Secretary-General
Hsueh Hsiang-chuan are expected to be accepted. News media
also reported Foreign Minister Francisco Ou offered to resign
to take responsibility for the government's initial refusal
of foreign aid. Other possible casualties include the
transportation and communication minister and the head of the
Water Resources Agency. Although Premier Liu Chao-shiuan's
post-typhoon approval ratings were even lower than Ma's, most
analysts expected he would survive the reshuffle.

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SOME SIGNS OF HOPE FOR MA, BUT CHALLENGES REMAIN
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4. (SBU) A few signs that Ma may have stabilized his
political free-fall have emerged in recent days. His approval
rating crept up to 20 percent from 16 percent in one widely
cited public opinion survey. Typhoon victims also appeared to
be at least somewhat placated by Ma's visit, according to
Yeh-Diing Wang, a leading pollster who had just returned from
the disaster area when he spoke to PolOff on 8/25. Meanwhile,
a few local politicians from the opposition Democratic
Progressive Party (DPP) also have received negative
publicity. For example, typhoon victims accused the
magistrate of Pingdong County of withholding desperately
needed relief funds. Media also covered a county councilman
who pummeled a typhoon victim for cursing at the magistrate
during a visit to the disaster area. And in two weeks, former
President Chen Shui-bian of the DPP will be sentenced in his
corruption trial, which also should steer the media focus
from Ma's typhoon relef performance.


TAIPEI 00001042 002 OF 003



5. (C) Another pollster, Global Views Survey Research
Director Li-An Tai, argued that the political damage to Ma
would be lasting. His post-typhoon polling found a
significant drop in public trust for Ma; only 37% percent of
respondents said they trusted the president while 47% said
they didn't. Tai said Ma would have a tough slog raising his
public trust levels, which generally tend to fluctuate much
less than approval ratings. Political analysts also note that
Ma will face several difficult leadership tests in the coming
weeks, including disaster reconstruction and a sudden jump in
the number of swine flu cases. Any missteps in those areas
likely will strengthen post-typhoon public perceptions of
incompetence.


6. (C) The first post-typhoon electoral test will come in
late September with a legislative by-election in central
Taiwan, which had been viewed as a toss-up between candidates
from Ma's Kuomintang (KMT) and the DPP. The opposition party
now believes it may have an edge thanks to anger over typhoon
relief, and a victory might in turn improve DPP chances in
local elections in December. DPP Central Executive Committee
Member Luo Wen-Jia acknowledged that the bungled typhoon
relief presented an opportunity for the opposition in
December but he cautioned that his party shouldn't get its
hopes up too much. County and city elections typically turn
on local personalities and issues, and in any event the DPP
has yet to greatly benefit from Ma's missteps because of its
own internal disarray.

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MA'S POLITICAL FUTURE AND CROSS-STRAIT TIES
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7. (C) Political analysts agree that no one wants to see Ma
recover more than China's leaders, who have found in the
president an eager partner in improving cross-Strait ties.
Pollster Dai believes China will try to support Ma by
offering reconstruction aid and promoting civilian exchanges.
Others note Ma's aggressive cross-Strait policies made many
voters uneasy and he may have to be more cautious, at least
for now, given his eroded public trust. Luo and Antonio
Chiang, a popular columnist and former senior official in the
Chen administration, said Ma may have to delay signing an
Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China
originally targeted for completion by year's end. Luo argued
that the southern Taiwan fishermen and laborers who bore the
brunt of the typhoon's fury would be among those whose
livelihoods would be threatened by an agreement. Pollster Dai
said he thought a framework agreement still could be
concluded this year. He said the accord was important to
Taiwan to counter China's trade agreement with ASEAN that
takes effect in January. (Note: In any case, we understand
the ECFA is not likely to include agricultural or labor
imports from the mainland at this time. End note.)

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COMMENT: LIMITS ON CROSS-STRAIT TIES
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8. (C) For all the progress made with China under Ma, the
typhoon relief clearly illustrates the limitations on the
cross-Strait relationship. While Taiwan gratefully accepted
heavy-lift U.S. military helicopters to ferry earth-moving
equipment to remote villages inundated by mudslides, it
rejected China's offer of a similar helicopter. Although the
Chinese helicopter purportedly was from a private enterprise,
most here assumed it would have been controlled by the
Chinese military, an unacceptable prospect for a people who
remain deeply wary of Beijing's reunification goal. Taiwan
did, however, accept 1,000 pre-fabricated homes for typhoon
victims and a handful of technicians to help put them
together, although tests were conducted after some residents
complained that the shelters had unacceptably high levels of
formaldehyde.

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COMMENT CONTINUED: A HUGE STUMBLE FOR MA, BUT A CHANCE TO
RECOVER
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TAIPEI 00001042 003 OF 003



9. (C) Until Typhoon Morakot swept through southern Taiwan,
no one seriously doubted that President Ma would handily win
reelection in 2012. While he still is seen as the favorite to
receive the KMT nomination, especially as he will assume
chairmanship of the party in October, the otherwise hapless
opposition may now have an opening to mount a credible
challenge. Whether the DPP can make it a close contest will
depend on Ma's ability to rehabilitate his tattered image,
and much will depend on how well he does in the coming weeks.
Typhoon reconstruction, swine flu and cross-Strait relations
all will provide opportunities for Ma to either regain his
political footing or to cement the growing perception he is
an ineffectual and unfeeling leader.
WANG