PRELIMINARY PIF SECRETARIAT READOUT ON PT. MORESBY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 SUVA 000053 SIPDIS PASS TO EAP PDAS GLYN DAVIES AND EAP/ANP USPACOM FOR LTC JENNIFER HUGHES E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/10/2019 TAGS: PREL PINR FJ XU XV PP NH CH SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY PIF SECRETARIAT READOUT ON PT. MORESBY LEADERS MEETING REF: SUVA 0031 SUVA 00000053 001.3 OF 002 Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Richard Pruett. Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d) SUMMARY ¶1. (SBU) Deputy Chief of Mission Richard Pruett met briefly on February 3 with Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Secretariat officials to seek their views on the January 27 PIF Special Forum Leaders Meeting in Port Moresby. The Secretariat officials: confirmed that public pronouncements aside, the unity of the PIF remains shaky; hinted at a possible new initiative involving the Melanesian Spearhead Group, and; forecast that the PIF,s new chair, Canberra, will seek to expand the Forum,s agenda, looking past Fiji for the purpose of focusing on wider regional issues. End summary. RAPID REACTION FORCE ¶2. (SBU) Meeting on February 3 with PIF Deputy Secretary General Peter Forau, Regional Security Advisor Matthew Leslie, and Political Issues Advisor Desna Solofa, DCM Pruett asked for their read-out on the Special Forum Leaders Meeting held in Port Moresby on January 27. Forau opened by informing Pruett that the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) is planning to meet soon to discuss Fiji and a range of other issues, including trade and possible formation of a &rapid reaction force.8 When DCM Pruett asked for more information about the rapid reaction force, Forau replied that the Secretariat had asked for but not yet received an explanation of the topic. Forau suggested that the purpose of the force might be for MSG members to assist each other with an organized response in the event of an emergency. SKEPTICISM RE CONSISTENCY ¶3. (SBU) DCM Pruett noted that the outcome of the MSG meeting should be consistent with the outcome from the January 27 Port Moresby meeting. Forau repeated the word should, with a tone of skepticism. He said that the statement by Vanuatu Prime Minister Edward Natapei on his return to Port Vila had tended to &undermine8 the position adopted by the PIF leaders at the end of their meeting. (Note: The PIF leaders, communiqu called for Fiji to announce a timeframe for the return to democracy by May 1 and to hold elections by December or face targeted measures. Natapei said Vanuatu wanted the Forum to give Fiji more time to come up with a timeframe.) DEFINING SUSPENSION ¶4. (SBU) Leslie stated his frustration with journalists and others who claim that the PIF is weighing Fiji,s suspension from the PIF. He noted that the PIF is not talking about the possibility of suspending Fiji,s membership but only its participation in various Forum meetings and events and regional assistance programs. He mentioned that many of the leaders had wanted to strike any mention of suspension, but one had insisted on its retention. (Note: PIF non-attribution rules prevented Leslie from identifying the lone hold-out, only referred to as a &minister.8) UNLIKELY TO MEET DEADLINES ¶5. (SBU) Leslie characterized the December date for elections as a &statement of frustration8 by the leaders of the neighboring countries toward Fiji,s leader Commodore Bainimarama for having excused himself from the PIF deliberations on Fiji for the second time in a row. Leslie said many of the leaders had come to Port Moresby prepared to give Bainimarama a sympathetic hearing. He said that everyone recognized that there was &some diversity8 within the group regarding the best ways for approaching the Fiji problem and that there was a &general consensus8 at the leaders meeting that Fiji was unlikely to be able to meet the SUVA 00000053 002.2 OF 002 December deadline, especially in view of Bainimarama,s non-attendance. The Forum had nonetheless adopted its communiqu in order to signal its seriousness, while leaving Fiji a &window of opportunity8 to mend its ways by showing genuine intent to return to democratic governance. PIF - NOT JUST ABOUT FIJI ¶6. (SBU) Forau was upbeat about Canberra,s assuming chairmanship of the PIF. He said that the geniality of Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd could help proceedings. He echoed the sentiments of New Zealand Prime Minister John Key that the PIF would have trouble pleasing everyone and agreed with Key that it was time for the Forum and the region to move on and tackle other issues. Solofa added that while Fiji would again be a major issue at the next leaders meeting in Cairns, Canberra would not allow the issue of Fiji to dominate as it has in the past. CHINESE VISIT ¶7. (SBU) DCM Pruett asked the Secretariat its views regarding the scheduled February 8 arrival in Fiji of an 80-person delegation of Chinese government officials and businesspeople led by Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping. Leslie said that the Secretariat would ask its Chinese dialogue partner how such a visit is consistent with its statements of support for the PIF. COMMENT ¶8. (C) While we should remain supportive of the efforts of the PIF to nudge Fiji toward elections, as per the strategy described reftel, it should be with the recognition that the PIF is far from monolithic as an organization. The fragility of the PIF's self-trumpeted unity was underscored by the last-minute jockeying on dates before the leaders meeting and Natapei's comments soon after the meeting ended. Bainimarama seems intent on playing to regional resentment of Australia and New Zealand in order to drive a deeper wedge between the PIF and the Melanesian Spearhead Group, although the snub he inflicted on Papua New Guinea Prime Minister Michael Somare by his no-show in Port Moresby underscored his own fundamental disrespect for, and lack of personal credibility with, regional leaders. The continuing ambivalence of the Pacific island leaders toward the question of taking a firmer hand with Fiji has little to do with the appeal of Bainimarama or his policies and more to do with their desire to maintain the &Pacific Way8 of group consensus. An even bigger driver remains the PIF members, unwillingness to commit organizational hara-kari by ousting from membership the country that hosts the organization,s headquarters and serves as the economic and transportation hub for this corner of the world. Paramount for some of these countries (e.g. Kiribati and Tuvalu) are national interests that make it virtually impossible to follow through on the PIF,s threats of targeted measures because of their current dependence on Fiji. The deadlines imposed on Fiji were as much for the purpose of binding them to action as they were to spur Bainimarama, and they are likely to fail on both counts. ¶9. (C) The notion that the Melanesian Spearhead Group, which is essentially a sub-regional trade treaty organization, would have the will or the wherewithal (without outside financial support) to form a rapid reaction force for the purpose of intervening in domestic emergencies in fraternal countries simply is not credible. It is more likely an idea pushed by Fiji,s interim government in the hopes it might provide Fiji,s military forces with a palatable multilateral platform for expanded participation in international peacekeeping operations. Embassy speculates that the Chinese visit--Xi,s only South Pacific stop on his way to a swing through Latin America--may be partly for the purpose of discussing military cooperation related to the MSG. MCGANN