SITIVENI HALAPUA'S PROPOSED ROADMAP

UNCLAS SUVA 000196 SIPDIS PLEASE PASS TO EAP ACTING A/S DAVIES E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PREL PREM KDEM FJ SUBJECT: SITIVENI HALAPUA'S PROPOSED ROADMAP REF: A) SUVA 189 B) SUVA 186 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Acting in his personal capacity, long-time regional interlocutor Sitiveni Halapua has proposed an alternate path to democracy to Fiji's de facto government. The proposal envisions a two-stage dialogue process followed by a constituent assembly, all conducted outside government control. Despite no indications that the de facto government wants an early return to democracy, Halapua hopes the government's desire for domestic and international credibility, along with Bainimarama's personal desire to leave a lasting legacy, will prompt the military regime to abandon its unilateral plans. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) Ambassador met May 11 with the East-West Center's Sitiveni Halapua to discuss the latter's recent engagement with Fiji. Halapua's recent endeavors are not sponsored by the East-West Center but rather taken on his own accord, apparently at the invitation of Bainimarama. Following the April 10 abrogation of Fiji's constitution, Bainimarama tasked long-time civil society activist Jone Takuvula with coming up with a way forward. According to Halapua, Takuvula then requested his assistance. ¶3. (SBU) Fiji's military regime undoubtedly has a very clear plan as to how they intend to proceed, Halapua said. Whatever the specifics, this plan is almost certainly unacceptable to both internal political leaders and the international community. Halapua and Takuvula hope their proposed alternative would be acceptable to the military regime and palatable to these groups. Asked what incentive Bainimarama has to deviate from its current plan, Halapua said that somewhere down the line Fiji will again have a sitting parliament. This parliament may or may not endorse what Bainimarama and his government have done. If Bainimarama believes that pursing this alternative path makes it more likely a parliament will endorse his actions, that's the incentive. Halapua believes Bainimarama is very concerned about his legacy and inclined towards anything he perceives as enhancing or enlarging his legacy. ¶4. (SBU) The alternate plan proposes an independent process outside the government's control. During the first phase, stakeholders (political leaders and international NGOs) would meet to discuss a framework and agenda for the formal dialogue. The second phase would be a formal dialogue, arriving at rough outlines of what Fiji's new constitution will look like. The final stage would be a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution. The entire process could take place by 2011. The proposal has been received by both Bainimarama and de facto attorney general Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum. Accordingly to Halapua, both will meet with Takuvula in the near term to discuss the proposal. The ambassador noted that the timeframe is not inconsistent from that noted by former PM Qarase and Mahendra Chaudhry, as reported ref. A and B. Comment -------------- ¶5. (SBU) While Halapua's efforts are laudable, Bainimarama would not be willing to meet with Qarase and other political leaders. Fiji's de facto government has not shown any interest in gaining some semblance of international credibility. MCGANN