MURMANSK - POTENTIAL POLITICAL UPHEAVAL QUELLED

UNCLAS ST PETERSBURG 000049 E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: RS PGOV SUBJECT: MURMANSK - POTENTIAL POLITICAL UPHEAVAL QUELLED REF: ST. PETERSBURG 31 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: The March 2009 replacement of Murmansk Oblast Governor Yevdokimov following his split from United Russia and support of successful mayoral candidate Sergey Subbotin created an uncertain political environment for the new mayor, with rumors that his election would be overturned in a court challenge. These rumors subsided slightly when Yevdokimov's replacement, Dmitriy Dmitriyenko, reached out to Subbotin and demonstrated his willingness to work with him. Subbotin says his administration will concentrate on the practical issues of city governance rather than on political conflict with United Russia. Nevertheless, it is likely that Subbotin will face some opposition from the Murmansk City Council, which is dominated by his opponents. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) After Sergey Subbotin defeated incumbent mayor Mikhail Savchenko with Governor Yuriy Yevdokimov's support on March 15 (REFTEL),PolOff and PolAsst travelled to Murmansk to canvass the new political environment, which included rumors that the highest levels of United Russia's command structure were not pleased with the outcome of the mayoral election and had threatened retribution against the too independent Governor Yevdokimov. His seemingly abrupt resignation on March 21 was seen as confirmation of this, and was thought to possibly foreshadow a potential court challenge which would overturn the mayoral election and depose Subbotin. ¶3. (SBU) On March 21, the same day Yevkokimov announced his resignation, President Medvedev appointed Deputy Head of the State Fishing Committee Dmitriy Dmitriyenko as Governor of Murmansk Oblast, a choice which was quickly confirmed by the Oblast Duma. Contrary to expectations, Dmitriyenko has not commented publicly on the mayoral race, and the new governor has shown respect for his predecessor on several occasions. Also, Dmitriyenko appears to be reaching out to Subbotin, instituting a new policy of holding weekly consultative meetings with the Oblast Duma Chairman, the Chairman of the Murmansk City Council, and Mayor Subbotin. This seems to indicate that Dmitriyenko is planning on working with Subbotin in the near term, and thus is not actively working to remove him. ¶4. (SBU) Mayor Subbotin, in turn, told us that he has left all electoral and political controversies in the past, and that his administration will be focused on such practical issues as housing, utility infrastructure rehabilitation, and debt repayment. The mayor insists that his relationship with the new governor is excellent, and that he is ready to cooperate with United Russia as well. Subbotin stressed that the two major regional development projects (development of the Shtokman oil/gas deposits and of the oblast's transportation infrastructure) cannot be successfully carried out without close cooperation between all levels of government. He views the oblast government as a key link between the federal authorities and the municipal administration of the city, and looks forward to working with Dmitriyenko to achieve their mutual objectives. ¶5. (SBU) Though Subbotin's position at this time seems to be fairly secure, he is likely to regularly face opposition from the city's Municipal Council, particularly if those plans deviate too much from the wishes of United Russia. Members of the Murmansk Council were elected in the same election as the mayor, but the council campaigns went almost unnoticed as the public's attention at the time was drawn to the high-profile mayoral race. A majority of the council members who were elected appear to be members of, or associated with, United Russia and were opposed to Subbotin's election. That may be a strong motivating factor for Subbotin's decision to focus on bread and butter issues. ¶6. (SBU) The underlying reasons for Yevdokimov's resignation remain murky. Some independent commentators we met in Murmansk consider his resignation and replacement to have been punishment for transgressing his party's conventions, as well as a warning to other governors that they should heed the Kremlin's wishes. However, the Representative of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a manager from the regional Ministry of Economic Development, and Mayor Subbotin all argue that Yevdokimov's resignation would have happened sooner or later regardless of the outcome of the recent mayoral election. They explain that while Yevdokimov was a good leader who had already led the oblast for 12 years, he was out of his league in trying to oversee the successful completion of the ambitious Shtokman and transportation hub projects. Instead, they argue the region needed a new type of governor, an effective national-level manager who was independent of regional interest groups. They claim Yevdokimov himself acknowledged this reality, and that he resigned when he did for the good of the region. ¶7. (SBU) Comment. The Murmansk mayoral election and its aftermath have confirmed several political trends in Northwest Russia. First, the voters in Northwest Russia are not likely to elect Kremlin-favored candidates if a viable opposition candidate is also on the ballot. Second, the Kremlin has recently appointed governors who are outsiders and who have minimal, if any, ties with the local political and economic elite. And, third, by either eliminating or co-opting potential non-conformists, United Russia has shown that it is still firmly in charge despite occasional setbacks. Yevdokimov's resignation, no matter what the cause, cleared the path for the Kremlin to appoint a new, and presumably more reliable, governor to Murmansk Oblast. Also, Subbotin's flexible stance indicates that he is a pragmatist, and recognizes that he needs to accommodate United Russia's wishes or will suffer the consequences. End Comment. GWALTNEY