SWEDISH MFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR ON IRAN,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000794 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/22/2019 TAGS: PREL AF IR BU UN EUN SW SUBJECT: SWEDISH MFA POLITICAL DIRECTOR ON IRAN, AFGHANISTAN, GUANTANAMO REF: STOCKHOLM 778 Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: In a December 18 meeting, MFA Political Director Bjorn Lyrvall told CDA that: --FM Bildt's recent meeting with his Burmese counterpart offered a good opportunity to convey EU concerns. --Implementing the EU Action Plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan is a top priority, and the looming date on the London conference will focus European thinking. --Sweden understands the importance the USG attaches to Guantanamo closure. --EU trade with Iran is down, but there is no appetite for EU autonomous sanctions. Rather, a UN Security Council resolution has be to be the next step. End Summary. End-of-year Surprise? -------------- ¶2. (C) CDA opened the meeting by offering congratulations for Sweden's deft and capable EU Presidency over the past half year. Lyrvall commented that U.S.-EU coordination on issues like Turkey and the Balkans had been excellent. However, Stockholm is still watching possible global flashpoints for an end-of-year surprise, Lyrvall said. Of concern is the Iraqi government's planned closure of Camp Ashraf north of Baghdad and the relocation of its residents. MEK's ability to quickly mount protests in European capitals, including Stockholm, is well-developed. Lyrvall noted that the original December 5 date of the operation has passed and it is not clear when the Iraqi government will act. Burma -------------- ¶3. (C) FM Bildt met Burmese FM Nyan Win in Copenhagen December 16 for a "first informal meeting" at the ministerial level for some time, Lyrvall said. The two had a "good exchange" and the meeting offered an opportunity to convey EU concerns over the importance of credible elections, political prisoners, and easing the detention of Aung San Suu Kyi. Progress in these areas would lead to "reciprocal actions" by the EU, and Burma said it would welcome a proposed visit by EU representatives to Rangoon next month. Afghanistan -------------- ¶4. (C) CDA congratulated the Swedes for their leadership on the "EU Action Plan for Afghanistan and Pakistan" unveiled at the October GAERC. Lyrvall noted how "cumbersome" it had been to forge consensus among the 27 EU Member States. But �A;the document commits Member States to actions and "we will closely follow up on the implementation of the Plan." Lyrvall said Sweden was not thrilled about the late January Afghanistan conference in London, having thought it would have been better to first have a conference in Kabul to highlight the central responsibilities of the Afghan government. Nonetheless, it was good that the London conference was coming so soon because the looming date would force the EU to say how it is following up on its action plan. At London, it would also be important to discuss "international coordination structures" for assistance programs. ¶5. (C) Lyrvall noted that a Swedish delegation held meetings December 16 in Ankara on Turkey's proposal to establish a PRT in Jowzjan Province. The Turks plan to "do assistance in two provinces but will have no forces for regional security," Lyrvall said, only some troops to provide perimeter security for their camp. Sweden would remain in contact with Turkey and Germany, which has overall responsibility for security in RC-North, to make arrangements for security in all four provinces of the Swedish PRT. Guantanamo -------------- ¶6. (C) CDA raised the importance the USG attached to closing the Guantanamo detention facility and noted that the issue of Swedish assistance remained a diplomatic priority. CDA noted the delivery of a letter from UNHCR to the Swedish Migration STOCKHOLM 00000794 002 OF 002 Board, as had been suggested by multiple senior Swedish officials, and asked what the next steps would be to initiate the formal adjudication process for the possible resettlement of the two named detainees. Lyrvall said he would need to consult with others before answering the question of how to proceed. Iran -------------- ¶7. (C) CDA noted that research done by the Embassy suggested Sweden's exports to Iran were rising in the first six months of 2009 over the same time period of the previous year. Noting that business as usual was not warranted at the present time, CDA expressed concern about the signal being sent to Tehran. Lyrvall stated that the EU Council Secretariat had just completed a study that found "EU trade" was on a negative trend over the past 5-6 years, with a significant drop in 2008 but some recovery in 2009. Absent UN sanctions, he continued, China and India would simply replace any goods no longer being exported by Europe. A UN Security Council resolution must be the "next step" and while it would likely not be all that hard-hitting, it would be an important nonetheless. If that fails, then there would be a clear signal about the importance of the EU imposing autonomous sanctions. "If we look at the internal debate within the EU, one will not find overwhelming support for autonomous sanctions even in parallel with UN sanctions. EU autonomous sanctions would be viewed by Member States as undercutting the UN process," Lyrvall stated. ¶8. (C) Comment: Given the Swedes' reluctance on sanctions and the apparent increase in Swedish exports to Iran (reftel),we will engage MFA and other interlocutors more often and more intensively on the necessity of ceasing business-as-usual trade until Tehran complies with its international obligations. SILVERMAN