ISRAELI AND IRAQI AMBASSADORS TALK IRAN AND

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000073 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/04/2019 TAGS: PREL PINR MEPP IS IR IZ SW SUBJECT: ISRAELI AND IRAQI AMBASSADORS TALK IRAN AND PALESTINIANS OVER DINNER REF: STOCKHOLM 23 Classified By: CDA Robert J. Silverman for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary: On February 2, at a dinner hosted by the CDA, Iraqi Ambassador Ahmad Bamarni and Israeli Ambassador Benny Dagan held a friendly and thought-provoking discussion on the Middle East. UK Ambassador Andrew Mitchell, Swedish MFA Director General for the Middle East Robert Rydberg, and POL Counselor also attended. Highlights of the discussion follow. The Two Democracies in the Middle East -------------- -- Israeli Amb. Dagan congratulated Iraqi Amb. Bamarni on the successful provincial elections in Iraq. Bamarni spoke of the very low level of violence on election day, and commented proudly that "Israel and Iraq are the only two democratic countries" in the Middle East. Iran's Degree of Control Over Hamas -------------- -- Iran appears to fully control Hamas, per Amb. Bamarni. Iran encouraged Hamas to provoke Israel last December, he alleged, during the period between the U.S. election day and the inauguration, to divert Israel and America. Iran feared an attack on its nuclear installations in the waning days of the Bush Administration, he speculated. -- Amb. Dagan disagreed, arguing that the Hamas internal leadership is not cohesive and different factions often freelance, sometimes going beyond the wishes of Tehran and other Hamas factions. Dagan sees evidence that neither Iran nor elements of the external Hamas leadership were happy with the timing of the rocket provocation of Israel. Likewise, Iran thought Hizballah's 2006 provocation of Israel was premature. -- Hamas and Hizballah freelancing is what most concerns Israel, Dagan added. If Iran develops a nuclear weapon, then the Israeli fear is that Hamas and Hizballah will be further emboldened, under the assumption that they are protected by Iran's nuclear umbrella. Iran's June 2009 elections -------------- -- Bamarni said Ayatollah Khameini supports President Ahmedinejad, who has remained a "loyal pasdaran." Khameini's support, as it becomes more public, might well ensure Ahmedinejad's re-election in the June presidential elections, he said. Bamarni said the likely outcome of Israel's upcoming election -- a Netanyahu government -- could help bring about the re-election of Ahmedinejad. Having both men in power would be a cause of concern. Iran's Regional Ambitions -------------- -- Iran's message to Europe and the U.S., per Bamarni, was that the road to solving regional problems runs through Tehran, not Ankara or Cairo or Riyadh (see reftel on similar comments by Iranian DFM Safari in Stockholm). Iran has worked hard to marginalize Turkish ruling party AKP's influence over Hamas. Thus, Hamas leader Khaled Meshal was visiting this week in Tehran, not Ankara. -- Bamarni said that during a visit to Baghdad last summer, an Iraqi friend invited him to lunch with an Iranian official. When he asked what Iran wanted from America, the Iranian said "we just want what the Shah had," U.S. recognition of Iran as the regional power. How to Deter Non-state Actors -------------- -- Dagan commented on the discussion in Israel of how to deter non-state actors, saying "we know how to deter states like Syria, but we are trying to learn how to deter Hamas." The current strategy is to use disproportionate force to respond to attacks by Hizballah and Hamas, noting it may take repeated strikes in both cases. As long as Israel is reacting to attacks inside the pre-1967 borders, such IDF strikes carry 90 percent Israeli popular support, he reported. Israel lacks a political strategy to accompany the deterrence, Dagan admitted. STOCKHOLM 00000073 002 OF 002 -- Bamarni took a historic view, saying Israel faced military threats from Arab nationalism for its first 20 years, then between 1967-1989 faced Communist-backed terrorism from the PLO, PFLP and DFLP, and now is facing Islamist terrorism. Each of these waves eventually dissipated, he counseled, and the key is to maintain some positive links with the Arab populations to help shape what comes next. Arab-Israeli Peace Process -------------- -- Bamarni asked Dagan why Israel had not liked the Arab League peace plan proposed by the Saudis. Dagan replied that the timing of the proposal, coming in 2002 in the middle of the second intifadah, made it impossible to deliberate. But the repackaged proposal of 2007 had received support from the full range of Israeli government offices and significant attention in leadership circles. One problem from the Israeli point of view, he stated, was that normalization only comes at the end of a series of moves by Israel, including its withdrawal to pre-1967 borders. There needs to be more "give and take as we go along," he said. -- Egypt stopped aggressively policing the Gaza border after Israel shut the Rafah crossing point, because it felt that Israel was trying to "push the Gaza problem down the Egyptian throat," Dagan said. Swedish Views -------------- -- Asked about Swedish positions on the Gaza crisis, Ambassador Rydberg noted that the four-party governing alliance was in discord on this issue, with the Christian Democrats and Liberals calling for a tougher approach on Hamas while the Moderates led by FM Carl Bildt were forthright in condemning Israel. ¶2. (S) Comment: The Iraqi and Israeli ambassadors had a lot to tell each other, and they spoke long into the night, openly and frankly. Both said they wanted to meet again. ¶3. (C) Bio Notes: -- Ahmad Bamarni is an ethnic Kurd from a prominent Suleimaniyah clan, a Sorbonne graduate, a member of the PUK Politburo, and a close confidante of President Talabani. For him, the posting in Stockholm was important because Sweden hosts the largest Iraqi expatriate community in Europe. -- Benny Dagan's mother's family comes from Baghdad, though he was born in Israel. He speaks the Iraqi Jewish dialect of Arabic. After a tour as deputy political counselor in Washington 1998-2003, Dagan headed the Middle Eastern Division of the MFA's Center for Diplomatic Research (roughly INR equivalent). SILVERMAN