SWEDEN'S MENU FOR THE NOV. 16-7 SUPER GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000712

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN RU AF IS SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN'S MENU FOR THE NOV. 16-7 SUPER GAERC

Classified By: DCM Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D).


1. (C) Summary: On November 11, Deputy EU Correspondent Jonas
Wendel discussed November 16-7 Super GAERC points with Acting
PolCouns. Highlights include: improving EU-NATO cooperation;
deciding on a way forward with Russia; preparing for the
EU-Ukraine Summit; extending sanctions on Belarus; improving
the civilian capacity of the ESDP; taking stock of
Israeli-Palestinian talks; helping Kai Eide in Afghanistan;
and phasing out OHR and Althea in Bosnia. End Summary.

EU-NATO Over Cocktails
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2. (SBU) The GAERC will kick off on Monday night, according
to the new Bildt Format. The foreign ministers first will
hold a 90 minute discussion on EU-NATO relations with NATO
Secretary General Anders Rasmussen. Wendel said this is the
first time the Secretary General has met with the FMs in this
format. Main topics are to include broad security challenges
and how to increase EU-NATO cooperation and maximize benefits
from collective resources; Afghanistan will be used as a good
case study.

Russia's Watery Borscht
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3. (C) At the dinner, FMs will have a brainstorming
discussion on Russia, as is traditional for each EU
presidency, said Wendel. The EU-Russia Summit will not be an
item (septel). Instead, the FMs will focus on the EU's
long-term strategy for engagement, including a working group
paper on the impact of the economic crisis on Russian
domestic politics and littoral relations. Russia's relations
with the Southern Caucasus is on the agenda, but the North
Caucasus is a sensitive issue for certain Member States and
will likely not be mentioned. Wendel said the EU-Russia
bilateral is still off the tracks and there is internal
division over what to do. Sweden wants a relationship based
on common values, but such is missing between the EU and
Russia. Any new EU-Russia agreement will be "very
difficult", said Wendel. The Russians only want "bits and
pieces" of a bilat, such as visa liberalization and trade,
ignoring human rights and freedom of expression, which are
important to the EU. There is doubt that Russia really is
interested in improving the bilat with the EU. No
conclusions will be made.

Ukraine: Political Piroshkis
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4. (C) The first session on Tuesday will focus on preparing
for the EU-Ukraine Summit December 4, in Stockholm. Energy
issues are high on the agenda, and Ukraine wants to discuss
visa liberalization. While the Swedes support discussing
this, other big Member States (including Germany) do not.
Bildt will gauge the general interest and will begin
preparations for a dialogue only if he thinks there is
sufficient support. In the long-term, Sweden sees the
Ukraine as an EU member, but countries such as Germany want
to avoid any possibility of future enlargement and are
therefore against further integration of non-EU states.
Bildt will push as much as he can, said Wendel, but the
Swedes cannot predict the outcome. The Member States will
agree on a key message to send to the Ukrainian leadership
ahead of the elections; the tone will be of "personal
politics is unacceptable."

Belarus: Black Market Vodka
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5. (SBU) They EU will both extend the sanctions on Belarus
and prolong their suspension until October 2010. If all
Member States agree to the statement's text, sanctions may
only be an A Item. But there is a chance, Wendel said, that
Britain or the Netherlands will be unsatisfied and therefore
take the floor to make a statement on human rights violations.

Somalia: Pirate Rations
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6. (SBU) The Atalanta Mission is on the agenda of both the
FMs and Defense Ministers. The French are pushing for a new
training mission to support the government in Mogadishu.
Sweden, among many others including Britain, think it is too
early to pull out troops from Mogadishu and replace them with
a training mission. The internal divide is so strong, Wendel
said, that the likely outcome of the discussion will be to
delay a decision and conclusions and revisit the topic in
December or in early 2010.

ESDP: Bildt's Dessert
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7. (SBU) ESDP's civilian capacity will he discussed. FM
Bildt put this on the agenda as a way to raise EUPOL,
according to Wendel. At the September GAERC, Bildt
threatened that "heads will roll" if each Member State did
not seriously work to increase contributions. Wendel said a
combination of political resistance and practical
difficulties have prevented the EU from meeting its pledged
400 EUPOL staff. Many FMs need the support of their
respective Ministries of Justice to commit more. There will
be a large set of conclusions, about 20-30 pages, dealing
mostly with the concept of ESDP and a listing of specific
missions. An annex to the conclusions, "ESDP at 10", was
penned by Bildt and, according to Wendel, is of more
substantive importance than the conclusions themselves. The
annex is Sweden's "imprint" on the ESDP and Bildt wants to
publicize the paper and use it as a mandate for future action
and/or as a "gift" to the new HREA.

Israel and Palestine: No Meat
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8. (SBU) Due to recent events in ISRAEL and Palestine,
including Netanyahu's meeting with the President and Abbas'
threat to resign, the morning session will kick off with a
discussion of the Middle East will be a "taking stock
exercise" including how to support the Palestinian Authority.
The EU will wait until after the next Quartet meeting and a
possible trip by Bildt to the region before issuing
conclusions, so the topic will reemerge in December.

Afghanistan: Hold the Poppyseeds
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9. (SBU) The FMs and Development Ministers will convene
before lunch on Tuesday to discuss Afghanistan. Carl Bildt
invited UN Special Representative, Kai Eide, to give a "broad
expose of practical challenges to everyday life in
Afghanistan." He will highlight what needs to be done and
then the Ministers will discuss how it can better meet the
needs of the Afghans. The Development Ministers will issue
Council Conclusions on how to use democracy building to
influence political outcome.

Bosnia: Still Waiting for Kebabs
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10. (C) After lunch, the FMs will meet with Deputy Supreme
Allied Commander of Europe, General McColl, to look at the
future of Bosnia. The tone of the discussion will be largely
influenced by the outcome of the tripartite meeting of Bosnia
leaders and the November 11 PSC meeting. All EU Member
States agree that the Office of the High Representative (OHR)
needs to be phased out, but division remains over what should
be done with the Althea Mission. The EU needs to decide if
Althea should be phased out when the OHR is phased out, or if
a separate deadline for phase out should be made. McColl is
concerned that Althea will no longer be able to perform its
mission in early 2010, when Spain withdraws early. No
conclusions will be given. If the tripartite meeting goes
well, the Swedes might issue a political statement supporting
the outcome. If the PSC ambassadors can agree on a way
forward, then political language will be introduced into the
ESDP conclusions.
BARZUN