SWEDEN'S MENU FOR THE NOV. 16-7 SUPER GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000712 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV EUN RU AF IS SW SUBJECT: SWEDEN'S MENU FOR THE NOV. 16-7 SUPER GAERC Classified By: DCM Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: On November 11, Deputy EU Correspondent Jonas Wendel discussed November 16-7 Super GAERC points with Acting PolCouns. Highlights include: improving EU-NATO cooperation; deciding on a way forward with Russia; preparing for the EU-Ukraine Summit; extending sanctions on Belarus; improving the civilian capacity of the ESDP; taking stock of Israeli-Palestinian talks; helping Kai Eide in Afghanistan; and phasing out OHR and Althea in Bosnia. End Summary. EU-NATO Over Cocktails -------------- ¶2. (SBU) The GAERC will kick off on Monday night, according to the new Bildt Format. The foreign ministers first will hold a 90 minute discussion on EU-NATO relations with NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen. Wendel said this is the first time the Secretary General has met with the FMs in this format. Main topics are to include broad security challenges and how to increase EU-NATO cooperation and maximize benefits from collective resources; Afghanistan will be used as a good case study. Russia's Watery Borscht -------------- ¶3. (C) At the dinner, FMs will have a brainstorming discussion on Russia, as is traditional for each EU presidency, said Wendel. The EU-Russia Summit will not be an item (septel). Instead, the FMs will focus on the EU's long-term strategy for engagement, including a working group paper on the impact of the economic crisis on Russian domestic politics and littoral relations. Russia's relations with the Southern Caucasus is on the agenda, but the North Caucasus is a sensitive issue for certain Member States and will likely not be mentioned. Wendel said the EU-Russia bilateral is still off the tracks and there is internal division over what to do. Sweden wants a relationship based on common values, but such is missing between the EU and Russia. Any new EU-Russia agreement will be "very difficult", said Wendel. The Russians only want "bits and pieces" of a bilat, such as visa liberalization and trade, ignoring human rights and freedom of expression, which are important to the EU. There is doubt that Russia really is interested in improving the bilat with the EU. No conclusions will be made. Ukraine: Political Piroshkis -------------- ¶4. (C) The first session on Tuesday will focus on preparing for the EU-Ukraine Summit December 4, in Stockholm. Energy issues are high on the agenda, and Ukraine wants to discuss visa liberalization. While the Swedes support discussing this, other big Member States (including Germany) do not. Bildt will gauge the general interest and will begin preparations for a dialogue only if he thinks there is sufficient support. In the long-term, Sweden sees the Ukraine as an EU member, but countries such as Germany want to avoid any possibility of future enlargement and are therefore against further integration of non-EU states. Bildt will push as much as he can, said Wendel, but the Swedes cannot predict the outcome. The Member States will agree on a key message to send to the Ukrainian leadership ahead of the elections; the tone will be of "personal politics is unacceptable." Belarus: Black Market Vodka -------------- ¶5. (SBU) They EU will both extend the sanctions on Belarus and prolong their suspension until October 2010. If all Member States agree to the statement's text, sanctions may only be an A Item. But there is a chance, Wendel said, that Britain or the Netherlands will be unsatisfied and therefore take the floor to make a statement on human rights violations. Somalia: Pirate Rations -------------- ¶6. (SBU) The Atalanta Mission is on the agenda of both the FMs and Defense Ministers. The French are pushing for a new training mission to support the government in Mogadishu. Sweden, among many others including Britain, think it is too early to pull out troops from Mogadishu and replace them with a training mission. The internal divide is so strong, Wendel said, that the likely outcome of the discussion will be to delay a decision and conclusions and revisit the topic in December or in early 2010. ESDP: Bildt's Dessert -------------- STOCKHOLM 00000712 002 OF 002 ¶7. (SBU) ESDP's civilian capacity will he discussed. FM Bildt put this on the agenda as a way to raise EUPOL, according to Wendel. At the September GAERC, Bildt threatened that "heads will roll" if each Member State did not seriously work to increase contributions. Wendel said a combination of political resistance and practical difficulties have prevented the EU from meeting its pledged 400 EUPOL staff. Many FMs need the support of their respective Ministries of Justice to commit more. There will be a large set of conclusions, about 20-30 pages, dealing mostly with the concept of ESDP and a listing of specific missions. An annex to the conclusions, "ESDP at 10", was penned by Bildt and, according to Wendel, is of more substantive importance than the conclusions themselves. The annex is Sweden's "imprint" on the ESDP and Bildt wants to publicize the paper and use it as a mandate for future action and/or as a "gift" to the new HREA. Israel and Palestine: No Meat -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Due to recent events in Israel and Palestine, including Netanyahu's meeting with the President and Abbas' threat to resign, the morning session will kick off with a discussion of the Middle East will be a "taking stock exercise" including how to support the Palestinian Authority. The EU will wait until after the next Quartet meeting and a possible trip by Bildt to the region before issuing conclusions, so the topic will reemerge in December. Afghanistan: Hold the Poppyseeds -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The FMs and Development Ministers will convene before lunch on Tuesday to discuss Afghanistan. Carl Bildt invited UN Special Representative, Kai Eide, to give a "broad expose of practical challenges to everyday life in Afghanistan." He will highlight what needs to be done and then the Ministers will discuss how it can better meet the needs of the Afghans. The Development Ministers will issue Council Conclusions on how to use democracy building to influence political outcome. Bosnia: Still Waiting for Kebabs -------------- ¶10. (C) After lunch, the FMs will meet with Deputy Supreme Allied Commander of Europe, General McColl, to look at the future of Bosnia. The tone of the discussion will be largely influenced by the outcome of the tripartite meeting of Bosnia leaders and the November 11 PSC meeting. All EU Member States agree that the Office of the High Representative (OHR) needs to be phased out, but division remains over what should be done with the Althea Mission. The EU needs to decide if Althea should be phased out when the OHR is phased out, or if a separate deadline for phase out should be made. McColl is concerned that Althea will no longer be able to perform its mission in early 2010, when Spain withdraws early. No conclusions will be given. If the tripartite meeting goes well, the Swedes might issue a political statement supporting the outcome. If the PSC ambassadors can agree on a way forward, then political language will be introduced into the ESDP conclusions. BARZUN