SWEDISH VIEWS ON RECENT TURKEY/CYPRUS DEVELOPMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000605

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV TU CY EUN SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH VIEWS ON RECENT TURKEY/CYPRUS DEVELOPMENTS

Classified By: PolCouns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4. (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: Swedish MFA officers told us September 23
that "those closest" to the on-going Cyprus talks, including
UN Special Envoy Alexander Downer, were optimistic about a
"break-through" in November. With regards to Turkey, the
Swedes admit there is a deal in place between French
President Sarkozy and Swedish PM Reinfeldt to discuss only
the "technical aspects" of Turkey's EU accession process
during the EU Commission's enlargement and Ankara Protocol
reviews. However, the Swedes have indications that if the
Lisbon Treaty fails or the new German government can be
convinced to support it, the French will propose a
"privileged partnership" for Turkey. End Summary.

Cyprus:
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2. (C) On September 23, POLOFF meet with Peder Spangberg,
Turkey Desk Officer for the Swedish MFA. Spangberg said that
Cecilia Malmstrom, Swedish Minister for European Union
Affairs, will visit both the north and south part of the
island in mid to late October to present the aid and
development options available to both sides if they can agree
to a deal. According to Spangberg, "those closest to the
talks," including UN Special Envoy Alexander Downer, are
optimistic about a "break-through" in November on the three
most difficult issues: security guarantees, property rights,
and governance structures.

Turkey:
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3. (C) Spangberg said there is a deal in place between French
Presidenct Nicolas Sarkozy and Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik
Reinfeldt as EU President to only review and comment on the
"technical aspects" of Turkey's EU membership during the
October European Commission's enlargement review and the
December review of the Ankara Protocol. In addition, the
MFAs of both Germany and France have told the Swedes that
they will limit their comments and actions to the "technical
aspects" of Turkey's review. However, the Swedes are hearing
privately that Pierre Lelloche, French EU Affairs Minister,
has a position paper ready to go on a "privileged
partnership" for Turkey. Lelloche is waiting to see if the
new German government can be convinced to support the
proposal. He is also awaiting the outcome of the October 2
Irish referendum on the Lisbon treaty. If the vote fails,
the French could use it as opportunity to say that there
should be no more enlargement and present Turkey with the
"privileged partnership" option.


4. (C) The Swedes do not see any hope of opening any chapters
other than Chapter 27 on the Environment. Spangberg said it
is likely the Swedes will be able to open this chapter at the
final Intergovernmental meeting of their Presidency on
December 21. The Swedes also receive regular reports from
the Commission on what work the Turks need to do to open
Chapter 27. Spangberg shared the current Commission report
and has promised to share future Commission reports with
PolOff and asked if they might be shared with U.S. Embassy
Ankara to place more "friendly pressure" on the Turks
(reports passed to EUR/SE).

Comment:
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5. (C) The Cyprus issue and Turkey's EU accession are two of
the highest priorities for Sweden's EU President, as
evidenced by PM Reinfeldt having two of his four bilateral
meetings at UNGA with the Cypriot and Turkish leaders. For
the first time in their Presidency, the Swedes have become
quite vocal about the problems with Turkey's EU accession
process. They are starting to prepare for the worst. The
Swedes are very eager to work with Washington (and Britain)
to find a way forward on this issue.
BARZUN