SWEDISH VIEWS ON RECENT TURKEY/CYPRUS DEVELOPMENTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000605 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV TU CY EUN SW SUBJECT: SWEDISH VIEWS ON RECENT TURKEY/CYPRUS DEVELOPMENTS Classified By: PolCouns Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4. (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Swedish MFA officers told us September 23 that "those closest" to the on-going Cyprus talks, including UN Special Envoy Alexander Downer, were optimistic about a "break-through" in November. With regards to Turkey, the Swedes admit there is a deal in place between French President Sarkozy and Swedish PM Reinfeldt to discuss only the "technical aspects" of Turkey's EU accession process during the EU Commission's enlargement and Ankara Protocol reviews. However, the Swedes have indications that if the Lisbon Treaty fails or the new German government can be convinced to support it, the French will propose a "privileged partnership" for Turkey. End Summary. Cyprus: -------------- ¶2. (C) On September 23, PolOff meet with Peder Spangberg, Turkey Desk Officer for the Swedish MFA. Spangberg said that Cecilia Malmstrom, Swedish Minister for European Union Affairs, will visit both the north and south part of the island in mid to late October to present the aid and development options available to both sides if they can agree to a deal. According to Spangberg, "those closest to the talks," including UN Special Envoy Alexander Downer, are optimistic about a "break-through" in November on the three most difficult issues: security guarantees, property rights, and governance structures. Turkey: -------------- ¶3. (C) Spangberg said there is a deal in place between French Presidenct Nicolas Sarkozy and Swedish Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt as EU President to only review and comment on the "technical aspects" of Turkey's EU membership during the October European Commission's enlargement review and the December review of the Ankara Protocol. In addition, the MFAs of both Germany and France have told the Swedes that they will limit their comments and actions to the "technical aspects" of Turkey's review. However, the Swedes are hearing privately that Pierre Lelloche, French EU Affairs Minister, has a position paper ready to go on a "privileged partnership" for Turkey. Lelloche is waiting to see if the new German government can be convinced to support the proposal. He is also awaiting the outcome of the October 2 Irish referendum on the Lisbon treaty. If the vote fails, the French could use it as opportunity to say that there should be no more enlargement and present Turkey with the "privileged partnership" option. ¶4. (C) The Swedes do not see any hope of opening any chapters other than Chapter 27 on the Environment. Spangberg said it is likely the Swedes will be able to open this chapter at the final Intergovernmental meeting of their Presidency on December 21. The Swedes also receive regular reports from the Commission on what work the Turks need to do to open Chapter 27. Spangberg shared the current Commission report and has promised to share future Commission reports with PolOff and asked if they might be shared with U.S. Embassy Ankara to place more "friendly pressure" on the Turks (reports passed to EUR/SE). Comment: -------------- ¶5. (C) The Cyprus issue and Turkey's EU accession are two of the highest priorities for Sweden's EU President, as evidenced by PM Reinfeldt having two of his four bilateral meetings at UNGA with the Cypriot and Turkish leaders. For the first time in their Presidency, the Swedes have become quite vocal about the problems with Turkey's EU accession process. They are starting to prepare for the worst. The Swedes are very eager to work with Washington (and Britain) to find a way forward on this issue. BARZUN