AFGHANISTAN, IRAN, CAUCASUS AT THE SEPTEMBER GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000586

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/10/2019
TAGS: AF EUN IR PREL SW
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN, IRAN, CAUCASUS AT THE SEPTEMBER GAERC

Classified By: Political Counselor Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (B) and
(D).


1. (C) Summary. Foreign Ministers will address Afghanisan
and Pakistan (AfPak),Iran, and the South Caucasus at the
General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC)
September 14-15. AfPak talks will center on fleshing out the
EU's new regional strategy, reaction to final election
results, and a possible international conference. Iran
discussions will address Tehran's response to the EU3 plus 3
proposal. The UN process must be exhausted before EU
autonomous sanctions go on the table, and FM Bildt must be
convinced that they will have the desired effect. Ministers
will explore ways to move toward association agreements with
Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Polcounselor and POLOFF
obtained a readout from Magnus Scholdtz, head of the MFA's EU
Correspondent's Office. End Summary.


AfPak
--------------


2. (C) GAERC discussions of Afghanistan will focus on making
the emerging EU AfPak strategy more concrete, working on the
basis of inputs from both the European Commission and the
"envoy club" of special representatives for AfPak that met
last week. Swedish FM Bildt will try to get EU members to
provide the 140 police officials still missing from the EUPOL
quota. A full catalogue of EU contributions to Afghanistan
requested by Bildt during the September 4-5 Gymnich, to be
known as the "Blue Book" will not be ready until October.
There mere act of compiling this text will "guilt" Member
States into doing more, Scholdtz said. Bildt has emphasized
the centrality of civilian efforts to success in Afghanistan,
and Scholdz noted that for the Swedes, increasing the
civilian component is key to gaining political support for
increases in military personnel. Ministers will probably
also discuss the final Afghan vote count due out just before
the GAERC. A key topic will be what to do if President
Karzai appears to win a first round victory but fraud
allegations later erode his vote share to less than a
majority. "How many motions is it worth going through (ie a
second round of voting) if it is clear that Karzai will win
in the end?" Scholdtz mused. The German/French/British
proposal for an Afghanistan conference will also be
discussed. Scholdtz remarked that the presidency was dismayed
that the Prime Ministers had not informed them before
publicly proposing the conference, but was somewhat comforted
by the fact that these countries' FMs had not been informed
either. Scholdtz hoped any conference would be held in Kabul
and focus on shifting responsibility to Afghans, instead of
repeating more "remote" conferences like the Bonn conference.
Scholdtz also judged that any time that ministers could
spare for Pakistan would be time well spent because
discussion to date has been "sketchy and inconclusive." Time
would definitely be set aside for Pakistan in the October
GAERC.

Iran
--------------


3. (C) Dinner discussion of Iran will center on how to
respond to Tehran's counterproposal to the EU3 plus 3. The
EU3 plus 3 are consulting today, and would present their
ideas on Monday to the ministers. The reply, which skirts
the most important issues, could nonetheless form the basis
of productive meetings, FM Bildt thinks. Based on the
response, the EU could possibly meet with Iran to stress the
main principles of the original offer. If the Iranian
response is insufficient, or if Russia and China appear
firmly unwilling to impose further sanctions, discussion will
turn to EU sanctions. Germany and France have already begun
setting the stage for sanctions, but the UN route must be
exhausted first. FM Bildt has requested data from the EU
Situation Center to estimate the effect of sanctions. Bildt
will not push for sanctions as a purely symbolic measure,
Scholdtz explained. Bildt must be convinced that they will
curb the nuclear development, and not simply provide a
scapegoat for the regime that will help it consolidate power
while allowing the Chinese and Russians to expand their trade
with Iran at Europe's expense.

Caucasus
--------------


4. (C) Ministers will address the possibility of authorizing
the Commission to begin negotiating association agreements
for Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. The ambition is to be
inclusive of all three countries, while still differentiating
between them based on their progress toward EU standards. At
the same time, the outreach serves as a signal to Belarus

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that the EU's Eastern Partneship Program is a real
opportunity to engage with Europe. The ultimate goal, deep
free trade deals with Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, is
still far off, particularly for Azerbaijan which is not even
a WTO member. Discussion of the EU Monitoring Mission, if
any, would likely center on ways to extend it to cover
maritime claims. The Incident Reporting Mechanism could be
extended to maritime incidents, for example. However, since
the law of the sea differs greatly from ordinary law,
maritime experts would have to be recruited.
BARZUN