SWEDES OFFER MORE DETAIL ON SEPTEMBER GYMNICH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000565 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/03/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV AF IR IZ PK IS AL CE EUN SW SUBJECT: SWEDES OFFER MORE DETAIL ON SEPTEMBER GYMNICH REF: STOCKHOLM 542 Classified By: Pol Counselor Marc Koehler for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). SUMMARY: -------------- ¶1. (C) Sweden's MFA Political Director Bjorn Lyrvall provided Pol Counselor with details on Swedish plans for discussions of the Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan (AfPak),and improving the EU as a global actor at the informal gathering of EU foreign ministers ("Gymnich meeting") in Stockholm 4-5 September (reftel). Addressing a joint meeting of U.S., Swiss, Australian, New Zealand, Canadian, and Japanese diplomats on September 1, Lyrvall noted: --Stockholm will put on the agenda the question of how to "invigorate" the EU's role in the Middle East peace process, and how to invigorate its contribution as a member of the Quartet. Ministers may also consider President Sarkozy's proposal of a peace process conference held in the context of the Union for the Mediteranean. --On Iran, there is a growing sense in the EU that Tehran must be pressed for an answer to the P5 plus 1 offer, and a growing European willingness to pursue enhanced sanctions, first through the UN Security Council and possibly through the EU. --Ministers will discuss the EU's new AfPak strategy and ways to concretely build both Kabul's and Islamabad's capacity to absorb aid and protect the rule of law. --A discussion of refining the EU's strategic foreign policy making will round out the informal meeting. --Russia will not be discussed, and negotiations with Moscow over the location of the fall EU-Russia summit have not yet made much progress. End Summary. Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process -------------- ¶2. (C) On September 4, discussion of the Middle East will focus on ways to support U.S. efforts to restart the peace process, Lyrvall said, with an eye to playing a constructive role in any talks on the margins of the UN General Assembly (UNGA) meetings in New York. Stockholm also wishes to consider ways to reinvigorate the EU's role in the Quartet. French President Sarkozy's earlier proposal to convene a conference on the peace process in the context of the EU's Union of the Mediterranean may come up during the unstructured discussion. Iran -------------- ¶3. (C) If time remains, discussion will turn to Iran and ways to engage Tehran after its elections. Lyrvall posited that Iran must understand that a clear response to the P5 plus one nuclear proposal is required now. When Swedish Foreign Minister Bildt had spoken to Iranian FM Mottaki at the Friends of Democratic Pakistan meeting in Istanbul in August, Mottaki could not comment on the proposal, saying Iran's response was not ready then -- but he did remark that it was time to reinvigorate ties to the West. Lyrvall reported a "growing sense" within the EU that the offer to engage Tehran should not be of "unlimited duration." The EU should send a strong signal that the EU3 will soon propose that the UN Security Council impose new sanctions on Iran. Lyrvall noted "growing support" among EU Member States for unilateral EU sanctions should the UNSC route fail, although a "minority" of Member States still oppose this. AfPak -------------- ¶4. (C) Stockholm is concerned that President Karzai may be tempted to declare electoral victory after only the first round of voting, and fears this will lead to allegations that the election had been stolen. However, the need for a second round could also promote instability. Sweden was aware of some calls for a national unity government (but Lyrvall did not comment on Sweden's views of such). ¶5. (C) Ministers will review the main elements of the Council Secretariat's new AfPak Strategy September 5 with the hopes of scheduling formal discussion at the October GAERC and final adoption at the October European Council meeting, Lyrvall said. The draft plan calls for enhanced regional STOCKHOLM 00000565 002 OF 002 cooperation and will propose a renewed compact between the new Afghan government and the rest of the world on the need for good governance and tackling corruption. Better coordination of EU activities in Afghanistan is perhaps the key element of the draft plan, and Member States strongly favor combining the roles of the EU special representative and the EU Commission Head of Delegation into one; the Commission is not yet in full agreement with the proposal for this "double-hatting." Substantive proposals will include still undetermined actions to build the capacity of the Afghan government -- especially at the sub-national levels -- by providing EU experts to assist in the development of the rule of law and encourage reform of the justice sector, by filling shortfalls in the EUPOL police mission, and by developing best practices for elections before the legislative vote next year based on recommendations from the EU monitors who covered the presidential elections. ¶6. (C) The strategy's Pakistan portion aims to put "beef" in the declarations from the June EU-Pakistan summit, in particular by following up on the Malakand strategy and focusing on capacity building on counterterroism, nonproliferation, and increasing Pakistan's ability to absorb aid. EU and the World -------------- ¶7. (C) September 5 discussions will also focus, if time allows, on how to develop strategic thinking in Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) matters. Apart from the Balkans, which have been a priority since the 1990s for geographic and historical reasons, Stockholm argues that European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) missions have been determined on an ad hoc basis. The goal is to define priorities and then gather military resources to support those goals, rather than have missions defined by existing capabilities. The Swedes hope that the new High Representative for Foreign Policy -- in the event that the Lisbon Treaty passes -- will continue these strategic efforts. Stockholm would also like to raise the issue of how to make a larger share of the EU budget available for CFSP activities. Candidates' Lunch, Russia -------------- ¶8. (C) Turkey will lead discussion on issues in its region, including Iraq and the Kurds, at a Saturday lunch for EU members and candidate states. No discussion of Russia is expected. The Swedes will not/not host a summit anywhere but in Stockholm, Lyrvall said in response to a question, and given the breadth of issues pending between the two, it would be regrettable if the summit were not held. Energy, the EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, and trade remain important areas for discussion with Moscow. BARZUN