SWEDISH NOTES ON SEPTEMBER GYMNICH AND GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000558

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV AF IR IZ PK IS AL CE EUN SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH NOTES ON SEPTEMBER GYMNICH AND GAERC

REF: STOCKHOLM 542

Classified By: Pol Briana Olsen for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: European Foreign Ministers will discuss the
Middle East, Afghanistan and Pakistan (AfPak),and improving
the EU as a global actor at their informal Gymnich meeting in
Stockholm 4-5 September. EU Secretariat Deputy Director
Jonas Wendel and officer Wouter Vidlund, seconded from the
Dutch MFA, told poloffs August 31 that the entire afternoon
of September 4 is reserved for informal discussions of the
Middle East and prospects for peace. Syria and progress
toward establishing an Association Agreement with Damascus
will be raised if time allows. Iran is a distant third on
the Gymnich agenda, but will be the subject of dinner
discussions at the General Affairs and External Relations
Council (GAERC) September 14-15. September 5 will bring a
structured discussion of the EU's AfPak strategy. The
strategy aims to better coordinate and focus EU efforts in
the region and the Swedes aim to have it formally adopted in
October, thus Afghanistan will also be discussed at the
September GAERC. Ministers will also engage in quiet
discussions of the transformation of EU foreign policy
institutions under the Lisbon Treaty at this week's Gymnich.
The Swedes have announced the agenda for the September GAERC,
to include General Affairs discussion of enlargement, and
External Relations discussion of Afghanistan, Iran, Southern
Caucasus and Sri Lanka. The Swedes wish to use the GAERC to
create momentum toward an Association Agreement for Georgia,
and enhanced trade relationships with Azerbaijan and Armenia
under the umbrella of the Eastern Partnership Program. End
Summary.

Israeli-Palestinian Peace Process
--------------


2. (C) Wendel explained that no papers were being prepared
for a free-ranging discussion of the Israeli-Palestinian
situation on September 4. High Representative Javier Solana
will give a readout of his recent trip to the region and
ministers will inform Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt of
their viewpoints in the runup to the UN General Assembly
meetings in September. The EU anticipates it will play a
supporting role in any eventual peace negotiations, not a
leading role. Because, in Stockholm's view, not much has
changed on the ground since the ministers' July meeting, new
formal conclusions are not necessary. Wendel also stressed
that there are no plans to issue a formal condemnation of an
allegedly anti-Semitic article published in the Swedish press
(reftel),as the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported August
31, and he denied that Bildt and Italian Foreign Minister
Frattini discussed such a resolution. Wendel noted, however,
that Stockholm eagerly awaited reports from Special Envoy
Mitchell's meetings in London.


3. (C) Wendel said that there is monthly demand for
discussion and conclusions on the peace process at the GAERC,
but Bildt is against having it turn into a skipping record.
According to Wendel, Bildt wanted the peace process on the
agenda for the Gymnich in order to avoid issuing conclusions.
The EU is waiting to see if a credible government emerges
from the inter-Palestinian Authority reconciliation process.
At the same time, the EU has problems engaging with the new
Israeli government. Wendel said Israel is sending mixed
signals and the appropriate interlocutors are difficult to
target. In total, the EU wants to take on a supporting role,
but is trying to figure out what that is exactly.

Syria and Iran
--------------


4. (C) If time remains, Syria will be discussed in hopes of
assuaging Dutch and Czech reservations about Damascus' human
rights record and achieving consensus on concluding an EU
Association Agreement (AA) with Syria. The discussion will
be prepared in the Coreper meeting on September 3, and will
probably be informed by a report from the IAEA on the Syrian
and Iranian nuclear programs due out this week. Bildt would
like to confirm the EU's AA consensus at the September GAERC,
with the aim to sign it into effect at the October GAERC.
Wendel explained that the AA was not directly linked to the
peace process, but aimed to put Syria on the same footing as
other participants in the EU's Union of the Mediterranean.
The long term aim of the outreach, however, is to encourage
Syrian engagement with the west rather than with Tehran.
Iran will be the dinner topic for ministers at the GAERC
September 14, but time will probably not allow it to be
addressed at the Gymnich.

AfPak and Iraq
--------------


5. (C) Ministers will review the main elements of the Council

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Secretariat's new AfPak Strategy September 5. Bildt will
brief on his recent travel to Afghanistan and ministers'
viewpoints will inform the final content of the Strategy,
which is still on tap to be adopted in October. Wendel
characterized current EU involvement in Afghanistan as "too
much action, not enough focus," and said the strategy would
coordinate the EU's disparate efforts there. The Council
must first overcome European Commission objections to changes
to its current efforts in Afghanistan. To date Brussels'
relationship with Pakistan lacked strategy altogether and was
hindered by "Pakistani pride", Wendel noted, adding that some
of the EU personnel working on Afghanistan could begin
working on Pakistan.


6. (SBU) Wendel said the Turks will lead the informal lunch
discussion on Iraq. Such on opportunity is intended to give
them a taste of the EU, and also give them some limelight as
an EU prosepective member.

Lisbon Treaty
--------------


7. (C) Gymnich participants will review plans for the EU's
post-Lisbon foreign policy institutions under the benign
heading "EU as a global actor." Preparatory papers outlining
plans for the External Service have drawn strong member state
reactions; discussion will be somewhat hampered by the fact
that the new High Representative for Foreign Affairs and the
External Service have not been set. Wendel noted that such
administrative bargaining is not Bildt's strong suit, but
that he must take up the project so that if the Irish vote
yes on October 2, transition can begin toward the new
institutions. Wendel opined that the EU Presidency may lose
effectiveness in foreign affairs after the Irish referendum,
but that the extent of the weakness would depend in large
part on the new High Representative and on how much authority
he/she would want to assume before January 1. Despite his
aversion to administration, however, Bildt has relatively
unilaterally revamped the GAERC structure, garnering personal
complaints from several ministers and staffs. Beginning in
September, GAERCs will begin with a working dinner on the
Monday evening, and Tuesdays will feature a solid block of
meetings from 9 until 1.

September GAERC Agenda
--------------

-- (C) Southern Caucasus: The Swedes have placed Georgia,
Azerbaijan and Armenia on the September 15 GAERC agenda.
While no formal conclusions are expected, Stockholm wants to
use discussions to create a "positive atmosphere" for
deepening relations with these countries under the EU's
Eastern Partnership Program, per Wendel. Ideally,
negotiation of an Association Agreement with Georgia could
begin, and closer trade relations explored for Azerbaijan and
Armenia. Member States are currently split on the issue,
with some objecting to deepening relations with some Eastern
Partnership members and not with others. Underlying these
objections may also be member state fear of an adverse
reaction from Moscow as well as technical questions about
whether and AA would apply South Ossetia and Abkhazia as well
as to Georgia proper.

-- (SBU) Sri Lanka: At the request of Denmark, basic
conclusions will be issued expressing concern over the
deteriorating human rights situation among Tamils in Sri
Lanka, urging the Sri Lankan government to take appropriate
measures.

-- (C) Enlargement: Including this topic took all by
surprise, according to Wendel, but Bildt wants to push
forward Albania's lagging membership application. At the
last GAERC in July, all Member States agreed to keep Albania
and Iceland on track. Germany, according to Wendel, wants
to avoid discussion of enlargement until after its domestic
elections in order to prevent xenophobic rhetoric. Germany
is key to moving forward with Albania's accession, but
electoral irregularities still must be addressed by the
Albanian government.
BARZUN