FUTURE SWEDISH ISAF PARTICIPATION: TIMETABLE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000505 SIPDIS STATE FOR SCA/CEN; S/SRAP - KAREN HANRAHAN; SCA/A - ARIELLA VIEHE; EUR/RPM - AARON COPE E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/13/2010 TAGS: NATO PREL MOPS MARR AF SW SUBJECT: FUTURE SWEDISH ISAF PARTICIPATION: TIMETABLE FOR PARLIAMENTARY DEBATE REF: STOCKHOLM 461 Classified By: Classified By: CDA Robert Silverman for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Swedish Armed Forces will submit requirements to the government for the Swedish ISAF mission in Afghanistan by August 27, after which the Ministry of Defense (MOD) will initiate interagency meetings. The MFA will have the pen for the draft legislation extending Sweden's military and civilian missions in Afghanistan through calendar year 2010. The bill will be submitted to Parliament around October 30, after which opportunities to change the language will be severely limited. Sweden understands the need for additional helicopters, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities and engineering assets in Afghanistan, but it is not clear at this point that the government is planning for such additions. Also unclear is how Sweden will handle a proposal by Turkey to engage in PRT activities in two of the four provinces where Sweden already operates. Comment: To best influence Swedish thinking on Afghanistan for 2010, September will be the most important time period for engagement. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Parliamentary debate on continued Swedish participation in ISAF will begin early this fall, after the Swedish Armed Forces submit to the MFA and MOD requirements for carrying out assigned tasks in Afghanistan, as per NATO OPLAN 10302, MFA ISAF Desk Officer Lisa Ljungstrom told Poloffs on August 11. Those requirements are due August 27, according to Karin Hebert of the MOD Department for International and Security Affairs. After that date, MOD Political Director Johan Raeder will begin chairing interagency meetings on Sweden's 2010 presence in Afghanistan. The MFA's Security Policy Department will have the pen for drafting the proposed bill extending Sweden's Afghanistan deployment. The critical time for the USG and NATO to influence decision-making on the legislation will be in September; inter-ministerial consultations and discussions will take place September 17-25, just prior to the informal EU defense ministerial to be held in Goteborg, Sweden on September 28-29. Sweden plans to invite UN Special Representative Kai Eide, Sweden's Af-Pak envoy Karin Enestrom, and EU Special Representative Ettore Sequi to address EU defense ministers at that meeting. Swedish interagency consultations will resume again in October to finalize the text, and the bill will be sent to Swedish Parliament by the end of the month. Parliament is expected to vote by December 11. ¶3. (C) Given increased violence in northern Afghanistan (ref),Sweden is considering possible changes to its security posture in Afghanistan, possibly including more armored vehicles, according to MFA Afghanistan Desk Director Mathias Otterstedt. Sweden also understands the need for additional engineering, ISR and helicopter assets in Afghanistan, he noted, but it is not clear that the government is planning for such additions. The government has already authorized helicopters in the previous year's bill, but the equipment Swedish Armed Forces intends to send has been plagued by delays in acquisition and modifications necessary for operations in Afghanistan. The equipment is not likely to be available for deployment before 2011. Swedish airborne ISR is a possibility and has been offered at least twice before but was withdrawn after unsuccessful attempts to coordinate logistics support. ¶4. (C) Another wildcard relates to Turkey's proposal that it launch a PRT in Jowzjan and Sar-e Pol Provinces, two of the four provinces of the current Swedish-Finnish PRT. Otterstedt said Sweden is not clear on the details of Turkey's "interesting proposition," including the types of development and assistance activities Turkey is considering or the number -- if any -- of security troops it would deploy above and beyond what is needed for force protection. Whether Turkey plans to launch its own stand-alone PRT or operate with the Swedish PRT is also unknown. In any case, Otterstedt said, a significant Turkish presence could affect Swedish planning for 2010 -- "though there is more than enough work to go around." ¶5. (C) Comment: September is the best time period for engagement. Senior USG visitors may wish to take note of the September 28-29 informal EU Defense Ministerial in Goteborg for possible opportunities to engage Swedish and European security planners. End Comment. SILVERMAN