JULY GAERC DETAILS AND GYMNICH LOOKAHEAD FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000496 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV EU SW IR SO AF PK SUBJECT: JULY GAERC DETAILS AND GYMNICH LOOKAHEAD FROM SWEDISH EU PRESIDENCY REF: BRUSSELS 1048 Classified By: A/DCM Laura Kirkconnell for reasons 1.4 (B) & (D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Acting DCM received additional details on the July 27 General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) of the EU,s Foreign Ministers (FMs) from Hakan Emsgard, chief of the MFA's European Section, together with ambassadors from Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Switzerland, and Japan. Emsgard's readout largely dovetailed with reftel but provided extra information on next steps on Iceland, Somalia, Iran, Afghanistan-Pakistan (Af-Pak),as well as an overview of the EU's fall summits with third countries and quiet institutional preparations for Lisbon Treaty implementation following a hoped-for Irish yes. Highlights include: --On Somalia, an expert report will inform decisions on inter alia appointing an EU special rep. --The EU is planning to demarche Tehran on human rights issues, and will review Iran's response to the P5 1 offer by the time of the UNGA. FMs prefer to administer any sanctions via the UN, and by mid September Brussels will begin thinking about limited unilateral sanctions. --Swedish Foreign Minister Bildt is pushing for a new Af-Pak strategy to be adopted by the EU by October, but complications with elections there could delay strategy development. --Stockholm plans to put an EU-Syria association agreement on the agenda for the September GAERC. --Climate change will feature prominently in the seven EU summits with third countries this fall; no decisions are expected at the EU-Russia summit. End Summary. Iceland and Albania -------------- ¶2. (C) Iceland's EU membership application generated considerable debate, most of it positive. Emsgard noted that the IMF is relatively pleased with Reykjavik's progress although some members are still concerned with resolving questions about the reimbursement of Icesave account holders in the UK and the Netherlands. There was also concern that Albania's EU application not take a back seat to Iceland's. Emsgard expects that Albania's application will appear on the September GAERC agenda, provided that the June election process had been completed. Somalia -------------- ¶3. (C) Discussion of Somalia at the GAERC centered on creating a comprehensive political approach to problems there and promoting self-government, and reflected Member State concern that it could become an Al Qaida haven. Emsgard reported that Swedish Somalia special representative Marika Fahlen, in the region in early August, will prepare a report together with other experts that will form the basis of the EU's next steps. These include the possible nomination of an EU special representative for Somalia. Iran: Consular, Human Rights, Nuclear Concerns -------------- - ¶4. (C) The FMs' lunch discussion of Iran focused on the consular crisis surrounding the arrest of a French citizen; the appropriate response to invitations to Ahmedinejad's inauguration; and human rights and the nuclear program. Emsgard noted that Swedish FM Bildt's good relations with Iranian FM Mottaki had helped secure the release of the British Embassy's local staff, and he was optimistic about progress on the release of the Frenchwoman. The Canadian ambassador noted that Canadian citizens had also been detained and requested that they too be mentioned in any approach to Tehran. The FMs had decided to downplay the Iranian inauguration and let each country decide whom to send. ¶5. (C) Brussels continues to be concerned about human rights in Iran in the aftermath of the disputed election. Sweden is making a list of human rights concerns to be included in a demarche, but Emsgard noted that internal disputes within the STOCKHOLM 00000496 002 OF 002 Iranian government make it difficult for Tehran to respond to such demarches in a meaningful way. ¶6. (C) EU outreach on the nuclear issue has been stymied, and EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Solana has not had phone calls to his counterpart answered since April. Emsgard reiterated that by the first week of the UN General Assembly (UNGA),the EU would evaluate Tehran's response to P5 1 offers. While FMs prefer to administer any additional sanctions via the UN, by mid September Brussels would begin thinking about limited unilateral sanctions targeted at the nuclear sector. Afghanistan -------------- ¶7. (C) The EU's Af-Pak strategy will be on the agenda of the informal Gymnich EU FM meeting in Stockholm September 4-5, Emsgard noted. FM Bildt wants the strategy finalized by the first week of UNGA so that it can be adopted by mid-October. Bildt wants the strategy in place in order to facilitate cooperation with partners, particularly with Washington. Brussels is pushing back against the timeline, however, because the drafters of the strategy are the same people monitoring Afghanistan's elections. If the election goes to a second round ) to be held September 20 ) the strategy will be delayed. EU-Syria -------------- ¶8. (C) Sweden plans to put an EU-Syria association agreement on the September GAERC agenda, MFA Political Director Bjorn Lyrvall told CDA in a separate conversation last week. Sweden sees the agreement as providing the EU more leverage over Damascus. More engagement is needed with the Netherlands on The Hague's human rights concerns before the agreement will be accepted. EU Summits -------------- ¶9. (C) Stockholm plans EU summits with Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Ukraine, and the U.S. this fall. All will focus on climate change, responses to the economic crisis, trade, Doha negotiations, and regional conflicts, Emsgard said. Stockholm is eager to exchange information with the U.S. on China's approach to the framework agreement for the Copenhagen climate summit. Sweden has not yet received a formal reply from Russia regarding the date and location of the EU summit, but has no concerns that it will eventually receive one. The summit will be one for &stock taking,8 not decision making, with "quality discussions" on all subjects. Moscow would like to hold a business summit in advance of the political summit but no decision has been taken yet. Lisbon Institutions -------------- ¶10. (C) Although Sweden does not wish to be seen as influencing the outcome of the October 2 Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, the Swedes are quietly preparing to usher in new EU institutions quickly if the Irish vote "yes" as is hoped. Ideally, for example, a new high representative for foreign policy would be in place for the October 29-30 European Council. The new EU external action service would emerge more gradually, Emsgard reported. A skeleton staff may be in place by 2010, but overseas deployments probably would begin only after two or three years. The diplomatic corps will be small initially; Sweden for its part would second up to five diplomats. SILVERMAN