Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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09STOCKHOLM444 | 2009-07-21 14:42:00 | UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY | Embassy Stockholm |
VZCZCXRO2566 PP RUEHAG RUEHAST RUEHDA RUEHDBU RUEHDF RUEHFL RUEHIK RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHLN RUEHLZ RUEHNP RUEHPOD RUEHROV RUEHSK RUEHSL RUEHSR RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHSM #0444/01 2021442 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 211442Z JUL 09 FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4533 INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY |
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000444 |
1. (SBU) Summary: On July 9, Poloffs and EUR/ACE Larry Silverman met with Malena Mard, Director of the Eastern Europe and Central Asian Department, and Johan Frisell, Head of the Eastern Europe Desk. Mard gave a rundown on the challenges Sweden expects during its EU Presidency between the EU and Ukraine, Belarus and Georgia. Sweden wants to direct aid to Ukraine to prepare it for eventual EU membership; is pessimistic about a rapprochement with Belarus; and wants the EU to deliver on promises to Georgia, because Russia "is winning." End Summary. Ukraine -------------------------- 2. (SBU) Sweden's aid program to Ukraine has a "long-term vision," according to Mard, and its assistance goes directly to those who implement the programs as often as possible. She said there is concern that many international donors will pull out because Ukraine is better off than many of its neighbors. However, Sweden will remain to keep Ukraine focused on reforms as a means to deepen its integration with the EU. After hearing our plans for increased U.S. assistance to Crimea, Mard commended the U.S. and noted we and EU Member States should be more visible in the Crimea to encourage the Ukrainian government to better integrate Crimea into the rest of the country. 3. (SBU) As Sweden's support to Ukraine is more flexible than the EU's, it plans to implement a program to help Ukraine prepare for the EU Commission's eventual budget support program. This aid will focus on democracy, human rights, environment and energy. Sweden and the EBRD are preparing to launch a large district heating program; it will reach out to potential aid donors this fall to fund the 100 million euros it estimates is needed for its completion. Mard said the PM's office is very supportive of the district heating program, as it is a positive move in solving the climate change problem. 4. (SBU) Frisell said a deep trade agreement could have been concluded with Ukraine this year had the financial crisis not occurred. Sweden therefore "lost" an EU Presidency deliverable. Belarus -------------------------- 5. (SBU) The EU Council views Belarus in a "very bad light," Mard said, perceiving the situation to be "no better than in Baku or Tashkent." However, Belarus borders numerous EU members and its situation cannot be ignored: the EU must have a high-level dialogue to prevent problems and solve those that already exist. As EU President, the Swedes must be prepared for the worst-case scenario. On July 28, FM Bildt will participate in a Troika meeting with Belarusian FM Sergei Martynov to start discussions on the way forward. The EU is ready for rapprochement, is unlikely to downgrade relations, and is preparing for more contact, absent very negative developments. However, said Mard, Belarus is telling the EU it will make progress on the human rights front in October. But by then it will be too late, said Mard, and the EU will likely renew the suspension of sanctions, not end sanctions. EU policy on Belarus had been almost completely determined by human rights, but now other issues, including energy, are factors, she added. Government reforms have been stalled, she said, adding that Lukashenko is "shrewd and knows he must do a balancing act." The EU is increasingly concerned about Belarus' sovereignty in the light of Russia, Mard added. Georgia -------------------------- 6. (SBU) The EU is watching the U.S. for cues on how to proceed with Georgia, said Mard. She said President Saakashvili is waiting for the EU to deliver on promises made last August to curb Saakashvili's reaction to Russia's invasion. "It is time for the EU to deliver," she said, because Russia is winning the popularity contest on the ground in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Sweden knows it must put the issue before the EU 27 during its Presidency. The challenge is to deliver concrete items that bring Georgia into the EU fold; Mard suggested that visa facilitation could be a deliverable. The EU is working on a four-year country strategy, focusing on the environment, democracy, and human rights. 7. (SBU) Comment: The Swedish government realizes it must round up EU support to extend a handful of cookies to the Georgians. If the EU does not act now, as Mard cautioned, the Russians will score points and any EU counter measures STOCKHOLM 00000444 002 OF 002 will be costlier. FM Bildt has kept in close contact with Georgian officials since last August, and while his anti-Russian public statements have subsided due to the EU Presidency, his support for Georgia and behind-the-scenes lobbying have not. SILVERMAN |