SWEDEN ON JUNE 15-16 GAERC

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000362

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/12/2019
TAGS: PREL PGOV BM IS GR GG RU EUN SW
SUBJECT: SWEDEN ON JUNE 15-16 GAERC

Classified By: Classified by POL Counselor Marc Koehler for
reasons 1.4(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In preparation for the June 15-16 GAERC,
Emboffs met June 11 with European Correspondent Magnus
Scholdtz just prior to his meeting with Swedish Foreign
Minister Bildt to review the GAERC. We also spoke earlier
with Deputy Correspondent Jonas Wendel and other officials.
They told us that:
--Sweden supports growing EU sentiment to sign an Association
Agreement with Syria before the end of the year;
--On the Bosnia, the EU is drafting an options paper for a
follow-on military mission to replace EUFOR/Althea. The
near-certain lack of UNSC Chapter VII authorization for such
appeared problematic;
--On the Middle East, the Swedes noted "dispute" within the
EU on how rigidly the Quartet principles should be enforced.
End Summary.

2. Scholdtz stated that the EU is more and more ready to sign
its Association Agreement (AA) with Syria given relatively
smooth Lebanese elections, especially if those involved in
the creation of the new government "behave constructively."
Scholdtz indicated that the process is "so far so good," but
it takes time to form a new government. Translation of 700
pages of Arabic language text related to the AA is not
expected to be completed before the July GAERC, and therefore
no signing is likely to take place until the autumn.
Scholdtz stressed the importance of the human rights and
non-proliferation clauses of the AA "to press Syria" and
stated that the EU will listen closely to the IAEA on the
latter.

3. (C) The Western Balkans will be discussed over lunch, to
which Serge Brammertz, the Prosecutor of the International
Criminal Tribunal for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY),is
invited. Deputy EU Correspondent Wendel stated that the
GAERC will aim for conclusions conveying EU commitment to
regional cooperation and visa liberalization for the
countries in the region. Others in the MFA told us the
conclusions will emphasize that Bosnia must meet the "5 plus
2" conditions. On visa liberalization, Wendel said that each
country is at a different stage in the qualification process.
Sweden feels that if a country is ready for visa
liberalization, it should be allowed such rather than
treating the nations as a group. Scholdtz stated that an
interim SAA agreement with Serbia might lead to greater
stability in Bosnia.

4. (C) On the EUFOR/Althea military mission, Emboffs
highlighted the essential nature of the UNSC Chapter VII
authorization; any follow-on mission would lack such a
mandate due to the Russian position. Scholdtz responded that
the point was "well taken" (and he and his staff frantically
took notes on this, the only time during the meeting).
Scholdtz also mentioned the drafting of an options paper to
establish a credible military guarantee "between no teeth and
teeth, rather something in between."

5. (C) Regarding the Middle East peace process, Sweden does
not want to create a "double standard" in policies towards
Israel and the Palestinians, and the Swedes are discussing
how to treat the new Israeli government that will not
publicly endorse the two-state solution. FM Bildt is upset
that Israel has not yet opened its borders. Wendel noted
that another sticking point within the EU is how rigidly the
Quartet Principles should be enforced. The EU is still
working on how to proceed with its Association Agreement with
Israel. According to Wendel, the likely outcome is that the
EU will prolong the action plan by a year. Israel is likely
to protest, but in the end is expected to accept. He said
that this would be a good exercise for the EU to unite and
stand firm on a single foreign policy.

6. (C) The EU,s annual evaluation of Cuba,s human rights
shows that no substantial progress has been made, but the EU
will continue its dialogue with Cuban officials. The EU does
not want to strengthen restrictive measures on Cuba when U.S.
policy towards Cuba is "relaxing." A common position on Cuba
will be include "certain restrictive measures." Sweden would
like the Council to give benchmarks for the continuing
dialogue. Spain is intensely focused on the issue and the
Swedes expect a lively debate.

7. (C) If time permits, other possible agenda items will
include Georgia, where Sweden supports the continuation of
all international missions (EU, OSCE and UN). Iraq is a
possible agenda topic, though the Swedes are not eager to
make this an "A" item. Somalia and Sudan could also be
discussion points. Operation Atalanta is up for review in
June and so the EU will need to decide whether to broaden its
mandate. On Sudan, Wendel stated that it would be preferable
to make a statement that the international community should
respect the ICC warrant for the arrest of President Al-Bashir
rather than include it as an item for discussion at the
GAERC. Finally, the U.K. is pushing Burma as a agenda item,
though this is perceived as an act intended to influence
British public opinion rather than a "strategic" move.
SILVERMAN