SENIOR POLDIR ON IRAN AND GAZA

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 STOCKHOLM 000035 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/16/2019 TAGS: PREL PGOV IR IS SW SUBJECT: SENIOR POLDIR ON IRAN AND GAZA REF: A. STOCKHOLM 23 ¶B. STOCKHOLM 14 AND PREVIOUS Classified By: DCM Robert J. Silverman for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary: Swedish MFA Director-General for Political Affairs, Bjorn Lyrvall, told us January 15 that: -- On Iran, Sweden now backs an "intensified implementation of existing UN Security Council resolutions" that will result in EU designation of at least "one or two" more banks; -- It would be "very useful" for the new U.S. administration to use some of its political capital to seek a new UN Security Council resolution with additional sanctions on Iran. If it is blocked by China and Russia, then the international community will have "called their bluff," and the possibility of the EU issuing autonomous sanctions increases; -- Sweden sees it as very important to maintain open communication with the Iranians so that they "get the message." FM Bildt was "tough" on visiting Iranian DFM Safari on human rights and the nuclear program; -- On Gaza, the big question for Sweden is whether there can first be a temporary cease-fire and then a discussion of arrangements to make it durable. End Summary. Iran: EU Sanctions, Plus Need for a New UN Resolution -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) On the topic of Iran, Lyrvall stated that he personally understood that "engagement from a position of strength" is necessary. Lyrvall added that he recognized that there was a "time factor involved" from the reports he was seeing of Iran's low enriched uranium (LEU) production rates. The Iranians will soon reach a "decision point"; if they attempt to produce highly enriched uranium (HEU),then all doubts would be erased internationally about their professed desire for a peaceful nuclear energy program. In any case, he continued, the Iranians would be very attracted to the "carrot" of more direct engagement with the United States, even while the "3 3" proposal currently on the table is very good and must not be put aside. ¶3. (C) As for "sticks," Lyrvall noted that in discussion with his EU colleagues, there was general agreement on a first step of "intensified implementation of existing UN Security Council resolutions." Promising a more "intensive interpretation" of the existing UNSCRs, Lyrvall said the EU was poised to adopt a "tougher approach" to Iranian banks and entities. He noted that there remained some hard questions over, for example, how many new banks would be designated. Lyrvall said his sense was that "some EU states" do not want to see a "blanket ban" on Iranian banks; rather, he predicted, "one or two more banks" may soon be designated by the EU. ¶4. (C) Lyrvall continued that Sweden thought it would be very useful if the new U.S. administration were to go quickly to the UN and seek a new UNSCR with additional sanctions. Lyrvall stated that more would be achieved under a universal, international sanctions regime. When the United States and EU sanction autonomously, "China and Russia just move in." Moreover, the attempt to pass a new resolution would be extremely important for intra-EU cohesion. If the new administration's effort is thwarted by Russia and China, then "we have called their bluff," and there will be a "different situation within the EU with respect to autonomous sanctions." Iranian DFM Safari Visit to Sweden -------------- ¶5. (C) Lyrvall said he had met with Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister for Europe, Mahdi Safari, on January 13th (Ref A). Safari had discussed how Iranian trade with Asia had taken off during his time as DFM for Asia while trade with the EU had plummeted. Now that he had taken over the Europe portfolio, Safari pledged to do for Europe what he did for Asian trade, according to Lyrvall. Safari also stressed how Iran and the EU had common interests in dealing with the Taliban and in making clear that there was no military solution to Afghanistan. Lyrvall described Safari as "very smart, but a carpet trader." ¶6. (C) DCM commented on Safari's January 14 public presentation at the Stockholm International Peace Research STOCKHOLM 00000035 002 OF 002 Institute (SIPRI),an MFA-funded think tank, noting that the Iranians frequently exploit the publicity they get overseas to enhance the legitimacy of the regime internationally and at home. Lyrvall sidestepped, replying that it is very important to maintain channels of communication with Iran so that they "get the message." Foreign Minister Carl Bildt was "very clear" with Safari in his criticism of Iranian human rights violations and his strong disbelief of Iranian claims about the nuclear program. Lyrvall opined that the Iranians were getting clear signals from all of their EU interlocutors. Gaza: EU Can Monitor Borders, but Needs Help -------------- ¶7. (C) Lyrvall said that he saw an increased readiness from Hamas to consider a cease-fire in Gaza. The question for Sweden, he continued, is whether there can first be a temporary cease-fire and then a discussion of arrangements to make it durable. When pressed, he said he understood the difficulty the Israeli side had with respect to the possibility of Hamas re-arming itself during any temporary cease-fire. When reminded about the need for enhanced security at the border crossing points, Lyrvall agreed that there needed to be a way for the EU to resume its border-monitoring mission and to be able to "deal with someone on the Gaza side other than Hamas." Lyrvall said the EU should avoid accepting full responsibility for protecting the borders, a task that even the Israeli Forces could not achieve; rather, the EU would need a third country -- possibly Turkey or Norway )- to interface with Hamas local authorities, and it would also need Egyptian agreement for a monitoring mission. Transatlantic Talks on Middle East, Sweden's EU Presidency -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Lyrvall noted that he was talking with others in the EU about developing transatlantic relations further on additional topics, such as on the Middle East, through additional meetings of EU foreign ministers with the Secretary of State. Lyrvall noted that he would try to travel to Washington in April to discuss transatlantic management of the Middle East and other issues during Sweden's EU Presidency. Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) Lyrvall's statements confirm previous reporting (Ref B) that Sweden's position on Iran sanctions is evolving in a positive direction. Predictably, Lyrvall was anxious to justify any new sanctions as intensified applications of existing UNSCRs and not as autonomous EU sanctions, per se. WOOD